Today’s Australian brings state and demographic breakdowns from the combined results of the Newspoll surveys of August 9-11 and August 16-18, which respectively came in at 52-48 and 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The overall sample is 2826 respondents, with sample sizes for each state ranging from 458 to 659. The narrowness of the range suggests the super-sized sample in this week’s poll was used to boost the numbers from the smaller states, by way of reducing the margins of error on today’s state breakdowns, the largest of which is 4.6%. The salient points:
• New South Wales looks to have done the damage in Labor’s weak ratings of late, the published two-party preferred coming in at 57-43. As you can see from the sidebar, this is a fair bit worse for Labor than the published and unpublished state-level numbers from other pollsters which have been used to determine the current BludgerTrack results.
• Victoria on the hand swings heavily the other way, a 54-46 lead for Labor suggesting only a swing to the Coalition of a little over 1%. This includes a 17% result for the Greens which most would consider a bit hard to credit, given the 12.7% result from 2010 and the general trend of the party’s fortunes.
• The numbers show Labor looking alive in all-important Queensland, a 53-47 lead to the Liberal National Party implying a swing to Labor of around 2%.
• The Western Australian results on the other hand paint a very different picture from one that has long seemed overly favourable to Labor in BludgerTrack. The two-party result is 59-41, implying a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% off an already very high base. It should be noted though that it’s around here that the margins of error start to push north of 4%.
• A 54-46 lead to the Coalition in South Australia is in line with talk that Labor should be concerned about Hindmarsh and perhaps one or two other seats in the state, suggesting as it does a swing of about 7%.
• Personal ratings don’t show a huge amount of interstate variation for Kevin Rudd, with Victoria being effectively even with his home state for his best net approval rating. His approval rating is higher among men (39%) than women (35%).
• Tony Abbott on the other hand rates considerably lower in Victoria (a net approval of minus 20%) than in New South Wales and Queensland (minus 5%).
I’ll be running all that through the BludgerTrack updatermator later today. You can view the full tables on voting intention here. You can also view aggregated state breakdowns for Essential Research here if you’re a Crikey subscriber, as you should be.
UPDATE: The Guardian has a Lonergan poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith which is raising a few eyebrows by showing his Liberal National Party opponent Bill Glasson leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). However, it’s well worth pointing out that Lonergan’s own blog reprints an article from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation which suggests we “trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new”.
Greensborough Growler@1041
Interesting you say that.
Just yesterday a draconian law to impose ridiculous restrictions on freedom of speech in Tasmania was put out of its misery by our Legislative Council. The vote upstairs was rather close, 8-6, though I think even if that vote failed they still would have watered it down a bit.
That draconian law was supported by state Labor and the Greens.
I actively opposed it.
[Bemused 1038 I agree. Provided you also agree that in the event of an election loss the 2013 plotters – Albo, Bowen, Rudd, Shorten, Wong et al have no future leadership place.
A clean slate on all sides will be required to rebuild.]
Well then you might as well clean out the whole party then.
Fortunately, black and white statements like that don’t match reality at all.
Rossmore@1050
Ridiculous notion for obvious reasons.
Off to bed now so argue it tomorrow if you are around and care to.
Carey, Bemused 1052/3
Dont match reality, ridiculous notion ….
We’ll see….
Irrespective of the election outcome ( I still have a faint hope) the next leader of the ALP must have no Rudd or Gillard baggage … we will need new leadership untainted by the poison of the last three years
Elder:
[Nobody who voted Labor or independent in 2010 will vote Coalition on the basis of Abbott’s carry-on]
Love it.
My gut feeling: last act still unwritten. Depends how the ALP campaigns from here. Not in the bag for Abbott.
Surprising the NBN hasnt yet emerged as a core election issue … time enough
Kevin,
Obviously, my right not to be goaded by infantile demands to place bets and a personal preference not to bet on things that talk is not something you care to support.
Just sent this: cartoon form refutation of the myth of the “wasted vote” under preferential voting:
Rossmore,
Agree the NBN is the ace in the hole.
However, the PPL costings issue is causing serious questioning of the Libs policies.
There is also Saul Eslake coming out today and stating the Libs have a $30 bill gap atm which if the ALP can tie to the Libs like an anchor will open up people to having a serious look at their options.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalition-has-30b-gap-in-promises-leading-economist-saul-eslake-20130822-2sdil.html
Seat polls coming in
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 37s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Werriwa 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 LIB 52 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 42s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Corangamite 2 Party Preferred: ALP 44 LIB 56 #ausvotes]
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 35s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of La Trobe 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 LIB 51 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 21s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Chisholm 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 LIB 48 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Werriwa 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 LIB 52 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Corangamite 2 Party Preferred: ALP 44 LIB 56 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Galaxy Poll Seat of La Trobe 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 LIB 51 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 28s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Chisholm 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 LIB 48 #ausvotes
Galaxy marginal seat polling of Western Sydney
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/alp-faces-a-rout-as-the-west-deserts-kevin-rudd/story-fni0cx12-1226702464689
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 16s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Lindsay 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 LIB 54 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 17s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Lindsay 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 LIB 54 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 11s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Banks 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 LIB 52 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Banks 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 LIB 52 #ausvotes
New thread.
[Surprising the NBN hasnt yet emerged as a core election issue … time enough]
Oh its getting plenty of mention. But sadly Turnbull has done a very good job of convincing people that his “alternative” is exactly that. A serious fair dinkum policy, and not the fraud invented to suit the political tactic of neutralisation, that it is.
Greensborough Growler@1058
Firstly rights here generally reside with the site owner and WB.
Beyond that, you have the right not to place bets, but you don’t have the right not to be “goaded” in an attempt to encourage you to do so. If you say silly things (like pretending to be certain when you’re not to try to negate criticism of Labor tactics) then people are entitled to suggest you have the courage to back your alleged convictions. If you’re not willing to back them in the way suggested, perhaps you can think of another.
Anyway, you clearly conceded your uncertainty, so all this talk about betting or not betting is unnecessary. The point I sought to demonstrate with the challenge was demonstrated. The risk exists.
Now, do you even have a rational defence of Labor’s behaviour in preferencing Wilkie below the Liberals – even assuming that the preferences are not distributed? Does anyone?
Jamez Diaz new LNP Guru
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 6m
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Greenway 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 LIB 51 #ausvotes
I came across this …
[Auckland Zoo Set To Receive Polar Bear In Corporate Gifting Scheme
August 21, 2013, 23:35
Auckland Zoo will soon be getting a new polar bear cub for the Zoo, courtesy of Gazprom and Royal Dutch Shell. It is the first time in ten years the zoo will have a polar bear.
“The polar bear is a symbol of strength and purity,” said Timur Grigolyuk, Director of Strategic Partnerships for Gazprom, Russia’s largest gas company. “Like Russian oil and gas, she is a precious resource that we can share with all the world.”
Gazprom and Shell are relocating polar bears to ten cities around the world. They are doing this as part of a new business partnership which will see them drill for oil in the Russian Arctic, which is losing sea ice. The companies distributed a video news release on their website explaining the process after the first polar bear was gifted to the Artis Zoo in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Moving polar bears also makes sense because polar bears have become a problem in the Arctic. Although “Arctic” means “near bear” in Greek, polar bears are today in conflict with the oil extraction industry.
“Auckland must be Arctic, not Antarctic,” said Grigolyuk. “Children are very happy with bears, and we want Auckland to have maximum happiness.”
The city’s newest resident will come from Gazprom’s Prirazlomnoye oil fields. Gazprom biologists and naturists are currently working to identify the right bear for particular conditions here. It is likely that the bear will be a cub that will be hand-nurtured under the supervision of Shell scientists until it is ready for transport.
“Unlocking the Arctic’s resources is a tremendous challenge and one we are honoured to share with Gazprom,” said Thijs Renner, Shell’s Domestic Public Relations Officer. “Our combined experience and innovation is set to produce unprecedented returns.”]
Amazing!
(satirical note: this is from the Yes men. Last tiome they came here they pretended they were from the WTO and said they were disbanding. I’d love them to come back here and try some more of their hijinks. We could use a laugh)