Today’s Australian brings state and demographic breakdowns from the combined results of the Newspoll surveys of August 9-11 and August 16-18, which respectively came in at 52-48 and 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The overall sample is 2826 respondents, with sample sizes for each state ranging from 458 to 659. The narrowness of the range suggests the super-sized sample in this week’s poll was used to boost the numbers from the smaller states, by way of reducing the margins of error on today’s state breakdowns, the largest of which is 4.6%. The salient points:
• New South Wales looks to have done the damage in Labor’s weak ratings of late, the published two-party preferred coming in at 57-43. As you can see from the sidebar, this is a fair bit worse for Labor than the published and unpublished state-level numbers from other pollsters which have been used to determine the current BludgerTrack results.
• Victoria on the hand swings heavily the other way, a 54-46 lead for Labor suggesting only a swing to the Coalition of a little over 1%. This includes a 17% result for the Greens which most would consider a bit hard to credit, given the 12.7% result from 2010 and the general trend of the party’s fortunes.
• The numbers show Labor looking alive in all-important Queensland, a 53-47 lead to the Liberal National Party implying a swing to Labor of around 2%.
• The Western Australian results on the other hand paint a very different picture from one that has long seemed overly favourable to Labor in BludgerTrack. The two-party result is 59-41, implying a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% off an already very high base. It should be noted though that it’s around here that the margins of error start to push north of 4%.
• A 54-46 lead to the Coalition in South Australia is in line with talk that Labor should be concerned about Hindmarsh and perhaps one or two other seats in the state, suggesting as it does a swing of about 7%.
• Personal ratings don’t show a huge amount of interstate variation for Kevin Rudd, with Victoria being effectively even with his home state for his best net approval rating. His approval rating is higher among men (39%) than women (35%).
• Tony Abbott on the other hand rates considerably lower in Victoria (a net approval of minus 20%) than in New South Wales and Queensland (minus 5%).
I’ll be running all that through the BludgerTrack updatermator later today. You can view the full tables on voting intention here. You can also view aggregated state breakdowns for Essential Research here if you’re a Crikey subscriber, as you should be.
UPDATE: The Guardian has a Lonergan poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith which is raising a few eyebrows by showing his Liberal National Party opponent Bill Glasson leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). However, it’s well worth pointing out that Lonergan’s own blog reprints an article from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation which suggests we “trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new”.
Newspoll did fractions with their final poll prior to the last election, the 50.2-49.8 to Labor which pretty much nailed the 2pp result.
The Chaser crew did a great cost v speeed anaylsis last night.
The ALP should pinch it.
The upshot: fraudband only saves 10%,but is ONE_THIRD the speed. Its a shit deal,and Turnbull knows it too.
I mean seriously,folks, isnt this the 21st century?
Agreed Left E
The whole NBN issue is very rich pickings indeed for Labor, and the sort of issue that really cuts through because it so powerfully encapsulates the sort of future Australia is building.
ESJ,
I see your Vamvakinou and raise you Andrew Southcott.
Carey:
Do you mean Albo as the steady hand leader, or Albo as the leader with electability in 5 years time? I’m assuming the former.
I caught Mark Butler on 730 tonight, and he reminded me why he’s always impressed me. He is future leadership material.
Leftye
[If abbott wins (and thats an if – this final act of this hasnt yet been written), he stands an excellent chance of being a one-termer.]
I agree. IFF Abbott wins, he will not be as lucky as Howard was. Howard inherited an improving economy, benefitting from the reforms Hawke and Keating had painfully pushed through. Then he got given a mining boom to cap it off. Abbott stands to inherit a flattening economy requiring some effort to get the budget back into balance again. Never mind the unfunded promises.
This is also why I am much happier with Rudd’s campaigning and strategy this week. No matter what happens it positions Labor better. If Labor wins they have done so by defending their own program and not making undeliverable promises that would be a milstone if in office.
If Abbott wins he will be under pressure both to deliver promise and find money. If he cuts Labor can remind voters of every unanswered question from the campaign and say “see Australian peole, we told you so, Tony Abbott was lying all along.” It holds Abbott accountable.
I do not know which way the next poll will move, but I think this has been a much better week for Labor. Less lacklustre, more of a narrative, and much more pressure on Abbott.
And furthermore GG, even on the assumption that Labor preferences won’t be distributed, can you explain why they have decided to tell the electorate that a vote for Tony Abbott is better than a vote for Andrew Wilkie?
And why they initially were going to tell the electorate that a vote for Rise Up Australia is better than a vote for Andrew Wilkie?
I want to see any Labor supporter who can provide a coherent explanation for this behaviour, even if it has no actual impact on the outcome.
Surely it can’t be the case that the Tasmanian branch of the ALP are such a bunch of sooky mimophants that when someone points out their billboard scare campaign is bollocks, they need to respond by preferencing that person below the Liberals?
Surely it can’t be the case that the Tasmanian branch of the ALP have such a Tory-style political arrogance that they cannot suffer anyone else to own “their” seat even for a couple of terms, even if it was their fault that they lost it by treating the electorate with contempt in the first place?
[Do you mean Albo as the steady hand leader, or Albo as the leader with electability in 5 years time? I’m assuming the former.]
Yeah, definitely the former.
Kevin,
You look after your own charities. I have an opinion. I think I’m correct. Childish goading by such a gifted psephologist as yourself is rather pathetic.
I never bet on things that talk.
Dear bludgers,
I read a few replies to my PPL post earlier today thank you dear friends. The points raised smack of endless circular logic in that you can argue any which way you like if you want to and never solve a problem. You just keep arguing. Sooner or later the problem needs solving though. I prefer to solve the problem rather than discuss the problem in perpetuity dear friends. Unless you actually solve the problem you just make more problems in the process. So sorry if I did not get back to some. No offence meant. But the conversation was being led into a discussion of the problem resulting in more problems and no real progress to a solution was a real objective. If I thought the genuine objective was to solve the problem then a progression to that goal would ensue. Getting long winded on this I know.
You know the worm used on debates? Do you want to know why it favours the left so much, if you don’t know? And how the process can be changed to even out the worm to favour all sides, and give a true read on the debate?
I am not Joe Hockey to a wonderer, nor do I know Hockeynomics. I Am John from Lindsay, born in Eden Monaro too.
cheers
John
V.good GG – but where is Senator Conroy? Isnt he going to jump on board the Rudd victory express?
I share Rosemount’s pessimism.
The ALP will lose the election, and our only comfort is that it might be close and abbott will immediately have low popularity levels. Provided labor keep it together and get a decent leader (who though?) abbott could/should be a one-termer. He will be frustrated in his legislative agenda by the Greens, but will nevertheless slash and politically stack government agencies, and help dismantle/destroy voices of dissent. we are in for a grim three years, and I can’t see Labor producing a leader who’ll take him on – the loss of Combet and Roxton is huge in terms of intellectual firepower and decency. I fear they’ll run through Shorten, Albo and maybe have Rudd plotting a return/white-anting if he doesn’t quit politics. hopefully they’ll arrive at Plibersek or Leigh sooner rather than later. the other upside of a PM abbott will be almost certain return to an alp gov in vic next year.
now, to entertain ourselves given we’ll have to put up with them for a few years, I propose a game a rhyming slang:
I’ll kick off – read in cockney woncha:
Tony Abbott = “Phony Haddock” or “Baloney Maggot”, cockniey-fied to “Ole Maggie”, which leads to “Thatcher”. (Alternatively – just “yellow jacket” – given his love for them, cockney-fied to “Ole yella”)
Eric Abetz = “Generic Regrets” (“ole Jerry” – that works)
Joe Hockney = “Low knock-knee” (aptly known as “ole knockers” – works figuratively and literally/visually)
Julie Bishop = “Unruly fish shop” or “drooly dish-mop” – she’d like “ole dishy”, but I prefer “ole fishy”
Greg Hunt – too easy – next!
wotcha guv
lefty e@963
I would not like to see anyone close to the centre of what happened in June 2010 in a leadership position in the ALP caucus.
It is bad enough that Shorten is in the Ministry.
Here’s the nub from Tim Colbatch reporting on Saul Eslake in The Age today:
“By our reckoning, over the remainder of the election campaign, the Coalition needs to announce additional savings measures totally in the vicinity of $30 billion over the four years to 2016-17 in order to be able credibly to claim that it would produce better bottom line outcomes than those projected (by Treasury and the Department of Finance), he said.”
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalition-has-30b-gap-in-promises-leading-economist-saul-eslake-20130822-2sdil.html#ixzz2chc5pn8h
Every day Abbott rules out cuts in various portfolios … thus narrowing the options. Some electorates are going to mightily pissed off when it becomes clear where the axe will fall…
Speaking of which, here’s that kickarse ad I wrote on the NBN last week.
[The NBN is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to take Australia ahead of its competitors.
The coalition alternative is slower, and uses the old copper network. it will need “costly, ongoing upgrades” *
The NBN brings the latest technology right to your door, not to your suburb. It will give Australia a world class network for the future. It will bring regional Australia back to mainstream of the new economy – you can base a business anywhere with the NBN – that means jobs and investment for our regions
This time, vote for the country’s future. Vote for the NBN. Vote Labor.]
You could add the stuff about cost v speed compared to fraudband – in a nice clear graph.
Game over: Abbott loses. I become King of the World about 12 pm September 7,literally floating into the sky on the raw orgone power of my LAUGHTER!
Man what have you been taking Lefty E – must be one hell of a doobie.
Well, Brough / Palmer gets a run on ABC24 at last.
whats all this leadership speculation? rudd will be around as pm for a long time, having the legitimate and fair chance his party and gfc denied. anything else is unjust. soon oz public will come around to what they think – against all the layer of propaganda. media reform first legislation. abbott gone within 6 weeks.
Well, Bemused, you and I backed the right horse over the last year. And maybe there’s another candidate. But personally, I stopped being shat at Shorto when he saw sense in June.
I still have hope Rudd will win this, so it remains hypothetical: but I for one wouldnt begurdge a change of leadership if he falls short.
Bemused 1013 that looked a tad defeatist. Are you conceding the election is lost?
kev don’t u like being a Tasmanian
sounds like you where not born here just wondering
last say on the matter
sticking to my vow to my self not to hang around polls
ESJ,
I’m really Derek Jules Gaspard Ulric Niven van den Bogaerde.
As for Conroy. He will return post election I presume.
As Carly Simon once said., “No one does them better”.
no I ve changed my mind
I find the alp ex great ive been helping out this week in all sort of ways
why would we not want the whole state to be labor
its the labor way.
\\
geoffrey and Meguire Bob separated at birth
The Brough /Palmer story also got a run on SBS TV news tonight.
No Neilsen tonight by the looks of it.
Gawd’s sakes.
Sad lot.
Get over it.
THE ANGER IN THE COMMUNITY OUT THERE OVER THE SUPER I’S REAL ANGER
PEOPLE HATE ABBOTT EVEN MORE THE MEN ARE GETTING ON BOARD NOW DONT TOUCH MY SUPER.
kev will be pm for some years and I will be happy with that
[ Do you mean Albo as the steady hand leader, or Albo as the leader with electability in 5 years time? I’m assuming the former. ]
why not take the most unlikely person in the party and have him/her trash everything mindlessly and relentlessly ?
It would have worked for the mob that just displaced you.
Yeah, Ghost who votes hasnt got anything.
There’s stilll “Jacko1995” of course. He normally gets the good oil before GWV. Ay Mick? :p
o god no wonder I m over polls u even stay up for them
]
that’s it bye folks
polls are divised to tourment people nothing more nothing less
Kevin Bonham @ 1007: Is it possible that the Tasmanian ALP is assuming (rightly or wrongly) that (a) Denison won’t determine who governs after the election; and (b) if they lose this time, they will have a better chance of winning it back from a Liberal than from an incumbent Mr Wilkie at the next election?
Edward StJohn@1011
I would expect him to be packing up his infamy and preparing to retire when his Senate term expires.
IS that what youre hearin mysay?
wouldnt surprise me if retirees got mighty pissed off.
I just hope ALPs doing enough to get the message out about PPL ripping them off.
[I would expect him to be packing up his infamy and preparing to retire when his Senate term expires.]
Seconded.
Grog with the day’s summary.
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/election-2013-day-18-or-moment-i-wake.html
Greensborough Growler@1009
Indeed you don’t, because the outcomes are uncertain, which was precisely my point. You think you are correct, you do not know it. You do not know for certain that the Labor preferences will not be distributed in Denison. It is highly unlikely that they will be – we agree on that, but you are trying to whitewash it as a non-issue, perhaps to discourage further scrutiny of Tasmanian Labor’s indefensible behaviour. If even the tiniest risk exists, why take it, what is gained by doing so? I reckon you have no idea why they did it.
As your lack of certainty has been made clear for all to see, I’m sure you can work out for yourself what to do with your pointless, hypocritical maturity (f)lame.
By the way when I made a similar challenge to kezza she accepted it! However the deposing of Gillard rendered that one null and void.
Rossmore@1020
No.
I see no future leadership place for any of the June 2010 plotters.
The sooner they are all gone the better for the ALP.
Good to see your still practising your own peculiar brand of Juche.
pedant@1032
That is exactly what I believe to be their thinking. They probably won’t come third, but if they do they’d rather have a Liberal in than Wilkie so that they can go back to thumping the Liberals 60:40+ for another 20 years. And they’re willing to take the tiny risk of losing the entire federal election for the remote chance of effecting that change.
Other possibilities are (i) it is just a hissy fit (ii) they are trying to annoy Wilkie into snapping under the pressure.
Kevin
Now you want to stalk me!
I actually have a personal preference for not betting on such things. I’m sure you know all about personal preferences that don’t accord with the opinions of the majority. Perhaps, being a Tasmanian you can introduce draconian laws to stamp out my evil ways.
I’m not sure if I should be honoured or take away your Psephologists Code of Conduct merit badge.
[The Liberal MP representing Queensland’s most marginal federal seat has declared she would vote for gay marriage if the coalition allowed a conscience vote.
Teresa Gambaro has previously stated she would push Opposition Leader Tony Abbott to allow a conscience vote on the matter after the election.
The shadow parliamentary secretary has, however, previously declined to say whether or not she personally supported gay marriage.
But on Thursday night, the MP who holds Brisbane by a narrow 1.1 per cent margin, told a candidates’ forum in her electorate she would vote in favour of marriage equality if given the choice.]
Weren’t the marriage equality mob only recently letterboxing her electorate requesting she come clean on her views?
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/18612909/gambaro-tells-forum-shes-for-gay-marriage/
1042
If they were, then they must feel like it was justified.
my say@1021
As it happens you were correct. I was born in Brisbane and moved to New Norfolk, Tas, at age eight, and then to Hobart, Tas, at age ten.
And there are some Tasmanians for whom that doesn’t qualify you as a resident!
Sounds like the LNP have preselected another nong, this time in Lilley.
[There were also howls when Mr McGarvie suggested that because of Labor’s marine parks “Asian fishing boats can come in there (the Coral Sea) and rape and pillage”.]
Aside from that it looks like the Lilley debate experienced a crap audience filled with party hacks form both sides.
Abbott backtracking on longstanding policy of libs taking donations from big tobacco not exactly something you expect from a guy way ahead in the polls and seemingly cruising to victory. is confidence waning?
fWIW Andrew Elder is not giving up hope that there won’t be a change of govt at the election.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/all-in-good-time.html
shoosh you lot the cricket is about to start
[As it happens you were correct. I was born in Brisbane and moved to New Norfolk, Tas, at age eight, and then to Hobart, Tas, at age ten.]
Well there you go, you clearly know nothing about Tasmania’s political situation at all! Reality: 800 seats for Labor in Tasmania! 😛
Bemused 1038 I agree. Provided you also agree that in the event of an election loss the 2013 plotters – Albo, Bowen, Rudd, Shorten, Wong et al have no future leadership place.
A clean slate on all sides will be required to rebuild.