Today’s Australian brings state and demographic breakdowns from the combined results of the Newspoll surveys of August 9-11 and August 16-18, which respectively came in at 52-48 and 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The overall sample is 2826 respondents, with sample sizes for each state ranging from 458 to 659. The narrowness of the range suggests the super-sized sample in this week’s poll was used to boost the numbers from the smaller states, by way of reducing the margins of error on today’s state breakdowns, the largest of which is 4.6%. The salient points:
• New South Wales looks to have done the damage in Labor’s weak ratings of late, the published two-party preferred coming in at 57-43. As you can see from the sidebar, this is a fair bit worse for Labor than the published and unpublished state-level numbers from other pollsters which have been used to determine the current BludgerTrack results.
• Victoria on the hand swings heavily the other way, a 54-46 lead for Labor suggesting only a swing to the Coalition of a little over 1%. This includes a 17% result for the Greens which most would consider a bit hard to credit, given the 12.7% result from 2010 and the general trend of the party’s fortunes.
• The numbers show Labor looking alive in all-important Queensland, a 53-47 lead to the Liberal National Party implying a swing to Labor of around 2%.
• The Western Australian results on the other hand paint a very different picture from one that has long seemed overly favourable to Labor in BludgerTrack. The two-party result is 59-41, implying a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% off an already very high base. It should be noted though that it’s around here that the margins of error start to push north of 4%.
• A 54-46 lead to the Coalition in South Australia is in line with talk that Labor should be concerned about Hindmarsh and perhaps one or two other seats in the state, suggesting as it does a swing of about 7%.
• Personal ratings don’t show a huge amount of interstate variation for Kevin Rudd, with Victoria being effectively even with his home state for his best net approval rating. His approval rating is higher among men (39%) than women (35%).
• Tony Abbott on the other hand rates considerably lower in Victoria (a net approval of minus 20%) than in New South Wales and Queensland (minus 5%).
I’ll be running all that through the BludgerTrack updatermator later today. You can view the full tables on voting intention here. You can also view aggregated state breakdowns for Essential Research here if you’re a Crikey subscriber, as you should be.
UPDATE: The Guardian has a Lonergan poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith which is raising a few eyebrows by showing his Liberal National Party opponent Bill Glasson leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). However, it’s well worth pointing out that Lonergan’s own blog reprints an article from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation which suggests we “trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new”.
GG
[Written 50 odd years ago.
Didn’t quite work out did it?]
It did for Steve Jobs!!
When he lost a power struggle and was sacked from Apple, he kept singing that song to himself. And the rest is history.
My Say
You are about the most self-absorbed person on this site. Your ramblings are hard to read and you goto great lengths to tell us all that you don’t read everyone’s posts (including mine) but you don’t realise that we don’t frickin’ care whether you read our posts or not..
so I agree with Rox, stop whinging about bloody polls… we are HERE to discuss them and their impact on politics and do stop shouting FFS.
Rosanne please yourself I use this place to promote labot not bloody pols
Hudson
STFU FCS Go and hang yrself misery guts
Diogs,
So which electorate is Mr Jobs running in this year?
If abbott wins (and thats an if – this final act of this hasnt yet been written), he stands an excellent chance of being a one-termer.
Because 1. you cant keep a PM in a gimp suit like you can an oppo leader. And 2. he’ll have to answer questions.
I was going to say more, but now I look at the first two, I rest my case there.
ModLib – The latest Essential Research showed the ALP could win despite losing 49-51 with a swing in Queensland (and maybe NT and WA) to make up for a swing to the Coalition in NSW, Victoria and Tas. SA will probably be unchanged. Of course anything more than 49-51, say 48-52 to the Coalition or more, would see Abbott win regardless, but if it is 40-50 or 51-49 to the opposition it could all depend on where the seats fall!
The 2 worst pm in Australian history leave parliament together that would be poetic
The one up there, GG. He’s taking on the incumbent ;).
lefte- And were shorten to be leader and Rudd and Gillard both to be gone from the scene the focus all becomes Abbott and austerity no longer the ALP
the good thing is that unlike queensland and nsw state election this is not foregone – good on kevin
nielsen i hear labor 51.5:48.5
It is a waste of time promoting the ALP in here.
If anyone comes here to do that it is a pure waste of time, so please do it as much as you can, you won’t be recruiting cultists that way.
Because in here there are only cultists, those who cannot believe that anyone could justify the modern pile of poo that is the modern Labor party and William.
Yep, Simon.
FWIW, and I say this as an unapologetic Ruddstorationist: If he loses, I would expect the baton to pass to Shorten.
And maybe Mike Kelly next. That guy has PM written all over him.
Yes, if it is 50:50 or 49ALP to 51Coalition, it is possible that the ALP would win on the individual seat counts. However, that analysis bears precious little similarity to what we are seeing now, what we have seen for the last 3 years, all the half dozen pollsters aggregated together and all the gazillions of marginal and not so marginal seat polls we have seen.
The vibe is a change of government
The betting market is strongly for a change
The national polls are strongly for a change
The marginal seat polls are strongly for a change
[nielsen i hear labor 51.5:48.5]
Pls dont put your hands down my pants and rummage around like that.
Wouldnt that be SUHWEEEET.
Frequent changes of government have happened before, earlier last century it went 1908-1909 ALP, 1909-1910 Liberal, 1910-1913 ALP, 1913-1914 Liberal and 1914-1915 ALP again
That was before the current ‘two and a half’ party system became entrenched in Australia. Things were quite unstable until the end of World War I. After 1919 the Nationalist Party settled down as the major Conservative / Centre Right grouping, the Country Party was founded and Preferential Voting was introduced. Since then, Federal Governements have tended to be long-lived – on average 9 and a bit years.
Mod Lib,
You’re becoming more earnest by the day.
Sounds like you are really, really really trying to convince yourself.
lefty, ewwww
I swear Sean Tisme is a bad influence :D.
[And maybe Mike Kelly next.]
Assuming he holds his seat.
lol Geoffrey is that 51/49 as reliable as last week’s Nielsen?
leftye – Or Jason Clare
Mod Lib – Yes, sorry meant 50-50. The betting market was for change as were the polls in ’93., they were wrong. Itr is Abbott’s to lose, but you never know, anyway, night all!
Last figures I saw had Kelly holding Eden-Monaro.
Lefty I have never seen Nielsen do fractions 🙂
[Stephen Spencer @sspencer_63 1m
. @_leo_s Robopoll says Latham’s 4th term is now in doubt. Along with Assange’s control of the Senate.]
If anyone comes here to do that (promote the ALP) it is a pure waste of time, so please do it as much as you can, you won’t be recruiting cultists that way.
Actually, this would also seem to be a poor ground for converting people to the ‘Liberal’ cause. I don’t think any poster here has switched anyone to the other side, at least not through posts in these pages.
@davidwh/973
It does since the 2.5 party Parliament 😛
No one has, David.
But just imagine how suhweeeet that would be: picture the unhinging on the Tory side!
Be worth Nielsen doing a Lonergan-style fake one, just fer the shits and giggles. It’d be LEGENDARY
I am infuriated.
About my family.
Some of them are a sad damn reflection on the abyss I face.
Morgan does fractions Lefty.
Actually so does ReachTel at times.
My belief is the next leader of the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party will be Maria Vamvanikou. Perfect stop gap leader to see out the first 2 years of the next term.
GG:
Are you predicting an ALP win?
Here’sa fun one: Who replaces Abbott if he loses?
Sloppy? Whiney? Peter “Health” Dutton?
RUDDOCK!!!??
The two interesting signs of the last 24 hours were Abbott telling Rudd to shut up and the classical ‘gesture’ politics of the Libs stubbing out heir tobacco addiction.
Both concessions are signs the Libs are beginning to feel a bit of heat.
The NBN is the ace in the hole for Labor. Whenever they get round to pushing it hard will be tough times for the Libs.
I vote for Ruddock. Fair go for the dead!
On the state of play, perhaps the hyper-ventilating could cease for a spell?
Rudd himself stated quite clearly, in the debate last night, that Abbott would PM if an election were held yesterday.
But if anything is true of this current spell of federal politics – as with global financial markets – it is that volatility is the order of the day.
If I felt in my guts that this was anywhere near over, then quite frankly I’d be tuning out and finding solace in other pursuits.
I think the next 2 or 3 major polls from reputable polling companies will be very significant since the battle lines have been far more clearly drawn in the past several days.
Voters now understand that Abbott is hiding huge cuts, that his signature PPL policy is deeply flawed and grossly expensive (even in good times, and all agree these are hardly boom times).
And while the initial glow from Rudd’s return may have faded a little, voters will be looking at Rudd afresh in the light of Abbott’s obvious unsuitability for high office.
davidwh
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 10:40 pm | PERMALINK
lol Geoffrey is that 51/49 as reliable as last week’s Nielsen?
reliable and conservative.
GG, does that mean Senator Conroy is going to hit the hustings with Rudd.
Its one thing to stay out of the ministry for 8 weeks – another for 3 years.
Too right GG.
The last act is not written for 2013. Not yet.
I think the member for Indi will be LOTO if the Coalition loses.
a young child never seen abbott before called him a sick rabbit when seeing him on television
i call him dr death (dr no is too passive)
And yes the NBN is a very potent trump card indeed – and I sense that Labor is deliberating holding back a blitzkrieg on this topic until the last week or 10 days of the campaign.
Morriscum? BROUGH!
DREAM TEAM!
davidwh
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 10:40 pm | PERMALINK
lol Geoffrey is that 51/49 as reliable as last week’s Nielsen?
i meant unreliably conservative – the truth is greater, on the bob ellis spectrum if not at his limit
@Alias/992
Perhaps, Albo did confirm he did have a draft copy of the new corporate plan when he debated Turnbull.
Greensborough Growler@943
Fine. Since you maintain absolute certainty that it will not happen, do you promise to stop posting here and donate $1,000 to a same-sex marriage advocacy group of my choice if it does?
If you don’t agree to this I’ll assume you don’t really know and aren’t serious in the comment above.
Yeah, people like internet.
I sense a coupla good well placed add about Abbott = old copper wires from 1932 and ordinary disinterested punters will go “WTF? What a %#$^& loser!”
[This has been analysed at length here but I showed last year how coalitions tend to have longer terms in office by some 41%. (since 1901, 1723 days on average for Non ALP PMs and 1219 for ALP PMs)]
Your analysis last year got the number of Liberal PMs wrong.
Kevin, Unfortunately GG is a financially impecunious Carlton poet by the name of Gareth Van Camp who does not have the means to make such a wager.
As I said the other day, Labor will need a steady, experienced leader, post-election, to stabilise things and make the party into a functioning opposition as quickly as possible. While they should certainly try to become PM, bringing the party together and overseeing the necessary reforms take priority. Once the ALP is in a position where it could win government again (be that in 1 year or 5 years), they can think about leaders whose strengths are electability. I suggested Albanese for that role.