Today’s Australian brings state and demographic breakdowns from the combined results of the Newspoll surveys of August 9-11 and August 16-18, which respectively came in at 52-48 and 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The overall sample is 2826 respondents, with sample sizes for each state ranging from 458 to 659. The narrowness of the range suggests the super-sized sample in this week’s poll was used to boost the numbers from the smaller states, by way of reducing the margins of error on today’s state breakdowns, the largest of which is 4.6%. The salient points:
• New South Wales looks to have done the damage in Labor’s weak ratings of late, the published two-party preferred coming in at 57-43. As you can see from the sidebar, this is a fair bit worse for Labor than the published and unpublished state-level numbers from other pollsters which have been used to determine the current BludgerTrack results.
• Victoria on the hand swings heavily the other way, a 54-46 lead for Labor suggesting only a swing to the Coalition of a little over 1%. This includes a 17% result for the Greens which most would consider a bit hard to credit, given the 12.7% result from 2010 and the general trend of the party’s fortunes.
• The numbers show Labor looking alive in all-important Queensland, a 53-47 lead to the Liberal National Party implying a swing to Labor of around 2%.
• The Western Australian results on the other hand paint a very different picture from one that has long seemed overly favourable to Labor in BludgerTrack. The two-party result is 59-41, implying a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% off an already very high base. It should be noted though that it’s around here that the margins of error start to push north of 4%.
• A 54-46 lead to the Coalition in South Australia is in line with talk that Labor should be concerned about Hindmarsh and perhaps one or two other seats in the state, suggesting as it does a swing of about 7%.
• Personal ratings don’t show a huge amount of interstate variation for Kevin Rudd, with Victoria being effectively even with his home state for his best net approval rating. His approval rating is higher among men (39%) than women (35%).
• Tony Abbott on the other hand rates considerably lower in Victoria (a net approval of minus 20%) than in New South Wales and Queensland (minus 5%).
I’ll be running all that through the BludgerTrack updatermator later today. You can view the full tables on voting intention here. You can also view aggregated state breakdowns for Essential Research here if you’re a Crikey subscriber, as you should be.
UPDATE: The Guardian has a Lonergan poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith which is raising a few eyebrows by showing his Liberal National Party opponent Bill Glasson leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). However, it’s well worth pointing out that Lonergan’s own blog reprints an article from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation which suggests we “trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new”.
guytaur sorry
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/
was the shut up, organized
AussieAchmed
In $US value the share value of the Australian stock exchange would likely be a lot more today than what it was at the height of Howie’s golden age.
Which Tony Abbott do we believe?
The one who says Work Choices is dead?
Or the one what stated;
“Workplace reform was one of the greatest achievements of the Howard Government”.
MB
No worries 🙂
Rudd’s claim Labor has been a lower taxing government checks out
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-21/rudd-tax-to-gdp-ratio/4892178 …
my say
I think maybe it was. Abbott showed he cannot even deliver scripted lines with credibility.
[Ghostwhovotes
#Newspoll August QLD Federal Primary Votes: ALP 37 (+8 from Apr-Jun) L/NP 46 (0) GRN 8 (0) #ausvotes]
Can anyone please tell me if the state break downs of the recent 50/50 Essential poll reflected this lift in ALP support in QLD?
poroti
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:33 am | Permalink
AussieAchmed
In $US value the share value of the Australian stock exchange would likely be a lot more today than what it was at the height of Howie’s golden age.
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I think John is either Joe Hockey or a student of Hockeynomics
my say
Bob Ellis brings up a good point from last nights forum. How do we get 105 votes from the 100 undecided voters ?
poroti
like the newsltd opinion polls , where Abbott in trouble fudge the numbers with 2nd perferences
I’m reluctantly agreeing with Meguire Bob on this. For many there is a temptation to grab 15 minutes of fame whenever with a celebrity. If you prefer the LNP, why wouldn’t you say this? It’s a great cheap shot.
I’d say the prospect of PMKR doing this right here right now would be zero, if only because he would have been fixated on his lines, so I’d be looking for suitable corroboration.
That this arises after the headlines will mention Abbott’s tantrum and “sex-appeal gate”, is awfully convenient.
Climate change opportunities
@ABCFactCheck: What’s the no.1 election talking point on Twitter? “Does this guy ever shut up?” great interactive from @abcnews http://t.co/x9AlC0bZyC
So much for makeup “gate”
Meguire Bob
They must have used the “vote early , vote often” polling method.
The make-up artist comments are clearly written by a Young Liberal.
Someone should write a PHD thesis on testosterone in Australian politics.
Would Julia Gillard have been able to compete with Abbott last night (and I most certainly don’t mean that as a criticism of Gillard). But Abbott is just a thug and needs thuggish treatment.
Or would he have had to tone it down with Julia?
Any opinions?
One of the main reasons for the surge in the share market under Howard was his tax free gift to the rich when he announced that first $1 million put into super for that year would be tax free.
Effectively a tax gift of a minimum $300,000 for those that had a lazy $1 million to throw into super.
The majority of this money went into the share market via the self managed super funds causing an a substantial artificial surge in prices and the stock exchange.
When the GFC hit the Australian share market dropped harder and further than other market due to this artificial high value caused by Howards gift.
[Any opinions?]
With the media the way it is any handling of tone would be reported in a negative fashion whilst any of tones utterances would be reported in a positive fashion as seen with the shut up comment.
If tone did his buttocks stroking trick in the campaign it would be reported as how in touch he was with women.
his wall punching trick displays how passionate he is.
his sign bending is a display of his knowledge of engineering.
we have already seen this when Abbott being passed out in his office during the GFC debate gets little attention but his taxpayer funded stunts to boost his travel allowance get blanket media exposure.
That Queensland Newspoll shows a different result to Robopolls.
Certainly interesting as to how that will change the “narrative”
castle@118
Don’t forget the halving of the CGT – Hundreds of Billions of tax liability accruing since the mid 1980’s (and since the halving of the tax) swept away from treasury back into the arms of tories voters.
Talk about laughing all the way to the bank, then huge reductions to tax rates for the wealthy when the GST was introduced.
The GST introduction when viewed against the halving of the CGT tells you all you need to know.
Time to hit the hustings over Abbotts attacks on self funded retirees , ALP
Most news sources going with ‘Abbott loses his cool’. Except the usual least trusted ones of course.
sean
do you ever shut up?
geoffrey
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 10:03 am | Permalink
sean
do you ever shut up?
———————————————
He does when you ask him an “awkward” question.
aussie
bring back abbott and stocks will increase 200%
labor has kept them low, and bankrupted so many in its six year —
this is very low or dumb oui. maybe it’ll be repeated
Any chance the shut up line was planned and focus group tested?
Front page of the Tiser today screams
IT’S WAR
And it’s certainly not the election.
Demetriou v Hird is much more interesting than Abbott v Rudd and it’s heading to court today.
Essendon was offered a 12 month Hird suspension and removal from the finals this year and didn’t accept the offer.
Unlikely, ltep. How could you test for both the words and the context?
[Any chance the shut up line was planned and focus group tested?]
So how many idiots do we have here at PB?
So how many idiots think the shut up line was planned?
Well what do you know?
Exactly the same number!
Surely Mark Scott of their ABC understands what Melbourne Town’s priorities are
[Mark Scott
Footy pages 1-5 in the Herald-Sun today. Crime pages 6-9. Boris on a bike p.11 Election p.12]
No Clive Palmer presser on 24
Anywhere else or not started yet?
Sean has never answered the following.
What is Abbott going doing to do.
A. Raise taxes
B. Introduce austerity measures
C. Admit he was lying and accept that the budget surplus will take some time to achieve.
Gotta be one of those.
Its a question I’ve yet to see a Liberal answer.
Here’s another one.
Name 3 things the Liberals are actually going to do that are national in nature, progressive, and well thought out.
Never heard an answer from Sean, or ML, or any Liberal here.
Or.
The Liberals are proposing to borrow $30B and “invest” that money into a short term band aid for the copper network. A project that has no future, and no hope of redeeming the money “invested” in it. Discuss.
Never got a response from a Liberal about that one either.
I did a back of the envelope calculation re the impact of the PPL levy / tax on investment income. It works out at close to $20.00 per $1,000 of Australian dividend income for someone on a marginal tax rate of 32.5% (annual income $37K – $80K). So for a self-funded retiree on an annual income of $50K of which about half is derived from Australian dividends, the impact would be about $500 per annum – about 1%. This is close to the impact of the Carbon price/tax impacts via the CPI.
So for self-funded retirees, the PPL impacts offset any advantage from removing the ‘Carbon Tax’. Of course businesses will pocket the benefits of the removal of Carbon pricing, so retirees will be worse off. And ‘Direct Inaction’ will have to be paid for one way or another. Maybe this could be beaten up into a monumental injustice. Of course that would be difficult because you need Murdoch on side for that to happen.
Under Labor, there would be the proposed levy on bank deposits, amounting to $5 per $10,000 guaranteed deposit amount. So if the retiree in the example received about $20,000 Bank interest per annum (meaning the amount on deposit is about $400 to $500K), the impact of the levy is about $200 – $250 per annum.
For my own part, as a self-funded retiree: I am happy to contribute to mitigation of the impacts of global warming; I want my bank deposits guaranteed and know that that has to be paid for one way or another; and am happy to contribute to PPL for those on modest incomes. But I don’t see PPL for executives as a priority.
geoffrey
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 10:08 am | Permalink
aussie
bring back abbott and stocks will increase 200%
labor has kept them low, and bankrupted so many in its six year —
this is very low or dumb oui. maybe it’ll be repeated
—————————————————–
Abbott wins the election on Sept 8 we will all awaken to find we have been time travelled back to the Howard era, and all will be rosy in the world.
Liberals don’t seem to realise or acknowledge that many things have changed in the world since 2007.
They ignore the GFC, the fact that the number of refugees in the world has pretty well doubled and is increasing by around 23,000 per day etc
Steve777
Impressive how your back of envelope calculations come out with more credibility than Joe Hockey’s “professional” number crunching.
Liberals don’t seem to realise or acknowledge that many things have changed in the world since 2007.
Its the Liberal Way isn’t it? The future? What’s that?
Its why they think we’ll still be using a copper network 20 years from now, or why Turnbull thinks he can get away with saying “only a few people will ever need fibre”. Yes, he did say that.
“@SmartState1: Mr Abbott I will never “shut up” about LNP health cuts in QLD especially at Logan & Gold Coast hospitals.1,000 nurses lost jobs in QLD.”
@GCobber99: Slipper allegations link Hockey to Ashby
http://t.co/gXdA7GnWh4
Steve777
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 10:19 am | Permalink
Under Labor, there would be the proposed levy on bank deposits, amounting to $5 per $10,000 guaranteed deposit amount. So if the retiree in the example received about $20,000 Bank interest per annum (meaning the amount on deposit is about $400 to $500K), the impact of the levy is about $200 – $250 per annum.
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Rudd was right on the mark in the debate when he said this is an insurance by Govt for the banks. And that with their multi-billion dollar profits they should absorb the cost. It is a levy on the banks, not the depositors, the banks are applying the cost to their customers to keep their multi-billion dollar profits.
The banks are able to use this insurance to secure their borrowings and as a guarantee to investors that their money is well and truly safe with them. It assists in boosting their investor levels and with it being there to protect investors it boosts their profitability.
The banks should be paying this levy as they get a commercial gain from it.
That is June story @ 138
Last night was not the first time that Tony has use the “shut up” line. He used it against Julia Gillard in health debate on Channel 9 in March 2010.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s2850600.htm
AA
[He does {shut up} when you ask him an “awkward” question.]
Like Abbott — or again like Abbott, he responds with misdirection or three-word slogans.
It is good to see the policy consistency being shown by those Bludgers who previously have variously attacked self-funded retirees for skiving off the system, but who are now concerned by the sneak attack on the income of self-funded retirees.
For the nonce, I believe that many of us Boomers are intergenerational thieves and that it is a pity that a proper policy debate about this core policy concern has descended into policy deceit and the usual party partisan bullshit using the Whatever It Takes guidelines.
This sort of democracy theft starts at the top, of course, and once again demonstrates that neither Abbott nor Rudd is fit to be prime minister.
BTW, the costings of the PPL should include budget provision for those who stop being self-funded retirees over forward estimates and who start becoming old-age pensioners. Interest rates are effectively zero and may soon descend below zero on real terms, dividend growth is flat, the franking imbroglio will reduce it further and capital growth in most sectors is not looking all that hot, either. Shorter message: self-funded retirees are going to shift more quickly into government pension streams than would otherwise be the case.
It is not only the pension that is a budget cost, it is the plethora of additional federal and state subsidies for health, transport and housing that pensioners receive.
I am sure that the PBO, Hockey and the Labor strategists would have tended to this particular flow-on effect. Not.
March 19 2010
In a skirmish this morning with the Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard on Channel Nine, Mr Abbott was finding the going a little tough.
JULIA GILLARD: So Tony you know in your own electorate…
TONY ABBOTT: The fact is…
JULIA GILLARD: School by school there are thousands…
TONY ABBOTT: She just never shuts up does she?
JULIA GILLARD: …of schools absolutely delighted.
TONY ABBOTT: She just, you just can’t shut her up. She’s on autopilot.
Abbott likes telling PM’s to shut up….
March 2010
EGO or what????
Tony Abbott put up a feisty performance in the Parliament when he and Kevin Rudd debated health yesterday.
Abbott made some telling points about the parts of the Prime Minister’s health plan that are missing, including announcements on hospital beds,
although he over-reached when he suggested that a cancer centre and piece of medical equipment could be named after him
because he says he provided the funding as minister.
guytaur
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 10:28 am | Permalink
That is June story @ 138
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Clive Palmer having press conference today regarding Ashby/Slipper/Brough/Hockey
Look at that, not one Labor person involved
Do we know what time the Clive Conference is?
guytaur
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 10:21 am | Permalink
Steve777
Impressive how your back of envelope calculations come out with more credibility than Joe Hockey’s “professional” number crunching.
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Be fair to Joe. The dog ate his election costings and is waiting for them to “re-appear”.
Not only did they go in as s++t they will come out as s++t
Kevin Rudd @KRuddMP 18 Aug
I hear my press conference shown on ABC 24 made it pretty clear why we need the NBN across all of Oz and not copper based #fraudband KRudd
Expand Reply
=======================================================================hint hint
did the abc lose its feed
[guytaur
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 10:27 am | Permalink
“@SmartState1: Mr Abbott I will never “shut up” about LNP health cuts in QLD especially at Logan & Gold Coast hospitals.1,000 nurses lost jobs in QLD.”]
Guytaur
I reckon Abbott has opened the door for Rudd to pound him over and over again in that kind of way. Planned or not, he’ll wish he’d never said it before this election campaign is over.