Newspoll breakdowns

Aggregated results from the last two weeks show that Labor’s recent weakness in Newspoll has been driven by dire results from New South Wales.

Today’s Australian brings state and demographic breakdowns from the combined results of the Newspoll surveys of August 9-11 and August 16-18, which respectively came in at 52-48 and 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The overall sample is 2826 respondents, with sample sizes for each state ranging from 458 to 659. The narrowness of the range suggests the super-sized sample in this week’s poll was used to boost the numbers from the smaller states, by way of reducing the margins of error on today’s state breakdowns, the largest of which is 4.6%. The salient points:

• New South Wales looks to have done the damage in Labor’s weak ratings of late, the published two-party preferred coming in at 57-43. As you can see from the sidebar, this is a fair bit worse for Labor than the published and unpublished state-level numbers from other pollsters which have been used to determine the current BludgerTrack results.

• Victoria on the hand swings heavily the other way, a 54-46 lead for Labor suggesting only a swing to the Coalition of a little over 1%. This includes a 17% result for the Greens which most would consider a bit hard to credit, given the 12.7% result from 2010 and the general trend of the party’s fortunes.

• The numbers show Labor looking alive in all-important Queensland, a 53-47 lead to the Liberal National Party implying a swing to Labor of around 2%.

• The Western Australian results on the other hand paint a very different picture from one that has long seemed overly favourable to Labor in BludgerTrack. The two-party result is 59-41, implying a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% off an already very high base. It should be noted though that it’s around here that the margins of error start to push north of 4%.

• A 54-46 lead to the Coalition in South Australia is in line with talk that Labor should be concerned about Hindmarsh and perhaps one or two other seats in the state, suggesting as it does a swing of about 7%.

• Personal ratings don’t show a huge amount of interstate variation for Kevin Rudd, with Victoria being effectively even with his home state for his best net approval rating. His approval rating is higher among men (39%) than women (35%).

• Tony Abbott on the other hand rates considerably lower in Victoria (a net approval of minus 20%) than in New South Wales and Queensland (minus 5%).

I’ll be running all that through the BludgerTrack updatermator later today. You can view the full tables on voting intention here. You can also view aggregated state breakdowns for Essential Research here if you’re a Crikey subscriber, as you should be.

UPDATE: The Guardian has a Lonergan poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith which is raising a few eyebrows by showing his Liberal National Party opponent Bill Glasson leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). However, it’s well worth pointing out that Lonergan’s own blog reprints an article from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation which suggests we “trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,072 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns”

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  1. [What is Abbott going doing to do.
    A. Raise taxes
    B. Introduce austerity measures
    C. Admit he was lying and accept that the budget surplus will take some time to achieve.]

    DOES THIS GUY EVER FESS UP?

  2. [#Newspoll August QLD Federal 2PP: ALP 47 (+6 from Apr-Jun) L/NP 53 (-6) #ausvotes]

    Thats a big recovery. Also represents +2.1% on 2010 election result. More to follow I hope.

  3. [CLIVE Palmer has claimed Mal Brough came to him with a plan to ‘destroy Peter Slipper’ by having the billionaire fund a sexual harassment case against the former Speaker.

    Mr Palmer said he believed Mr Brough should be exposed for the role in the affair but said claims by Peter Slipper that senior LNP figure Joe Hockey was also involved was not correct.

    “Joe Hockey played no role in organising that meeting.”

    “I have always found Mr Hockey to be the person of the highest integrity.”

    Mr Palmer told a press conference a short time ago that he had met with Mr Brough at the Palmer Coolum Resort where Mr Brough detailed the sordid sexual harassment case against Mr Slipper.

    At the time, Mr Palmer was still a life member of the LNP.

    “Mal Brough said to me that we needed to destroy Peter Slipper,” Mr Palmer said.

    “He said he had all the evidence that would put Peter Slipper away for a long time.

    Mr Palmer said the case that Mr Brough outlined included much of what had been detailed in the statement of claim in the federal court.

    “To me it seemed there was no case at all against Mr Slipper… that it was something a court would entertain.”

    Mr Palmer said he felt uneasy about the whole situation, especially in light of the fact that it was Mr Slipper who had been instrumental in having Mr Brough join the Liberal Party.

    “The sort of issues were raised went to his integrity of his marriage and family.

    ]

    http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/nocache/news/clive-takes-on-mal-over-ashby-cash/1993757/?ref=hs#.UhVh5_PGryg.twitter

  4. Steve777
    What a pity the alp isnt politically savvy enough to have got this out themselves?
    Another opportunity to plant Abbott goes begging.

  6. BW: “”It is not only the pension that is a budget cost, it is the plethora of additional federal and state subsidies for health, transport and housing that pensioners receive.”

    Made the same point myself last night. There’s a whole army of accountants out there that dedicate their work to assisting Self Funded Retirees get the part pension and the associated CW and State benefits.

    These accountants will be licking their lips right now at the prospect of an LNP victory and devising new, creative ways to get SFRs onto the part pension.

    I doubt the yet to be released PEFO analysis of the PPL costing will have factored in this additional cost … opening another line of attack for the ALP

  7. Rosemour or Less@154

    Steve777
    What a pity the alp isnt politically savvy enough to have got this out themselves?
    Another opportunity to plant Abbott goes begging.

    You seem to hold the opinion that the ALP campaign can chase every rabbit down every burrow and do it all at once.

    I hope they are being a bit more strategic than that and focusing on key messages.

  8. @137
    Another rolled gold line someone at alp brain central should have out there already.
    The alp does want to win, right?

  14. My question is for anyone who knows the building industry well.

    Last night Abbott said that by reinstating the ABCC – a body entirely devoted to preventing union activity in the construction industry – costs of commercial construction would decline and this will flow through to housing construction, making it cheaper. Does anyone know what the mechanism for this flow-on effect is, and if it was demonstrated before the ABCC was abolished?

    Thanks.

  16. [poroti
    Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 11:08 am | Permalink
    Meanwhile in Make-up artistgate Lily Fontana had second thoughts about her post.    ]

    The lovely Lily may have been reminded none too subtly that her job does not include making those kinds of observations public.

  17. So, Clive has dumped on Brough after all the candidates are locked in. If Brough pulls the plug then the Fibs have no candidate in that seat??

    He’s protecting JoHo. Fair nuff. But still opens up questions as to who knew what when and dumps Brough in it up to his eye-balls. Justice Rare’s judgement may be about to get another airing in the media i think. 🙂

  18. autocrat@164That claim runs counter to another argument they run that housing construction is cheaper because it is all done by self-employed sub-contractor tradesmen who are of course not unionised.

    Can they please make up their mind?

  19. Darn

    It begs the question of why would a make up artist put her career in jeopardy by making such a post on social media in the first place?

  20. I don’t think it comes as a surprise to anyone that Abbott is more enjoyable to be around than Rudd, especially away from the cameras.

  21. Someone needs to go to the second question on Ashby: If Palmer wouldn’t finance the legals, who else was approached, and who is actually providing the funds?

  22. [I don’t think it comes as a surprise to anyone that Abbott is more enjoyable to be around than Rudd, especially away from the cameras.]

    Not really, but it’s unnecessary for him to be rude to people, he should get control of himself.

  24. Diogenes

    Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    I don’t think it comes as a surprise to anyone that Abbott is more enjoyable to be around than Rudd, especially away from the cameras.
    =========================================================pe

    I don’t particularly being around people kiss every woman they meet.
    ———————————————————————

    i l take a gentleman like kev any day

    ===================================================

    u men just don’t get it do u

    =============================================

    and don’t like smarty pants men people either sports men much either

    Expand Reply

  25. We still don’t know what was said or done re Lily. How can anyone make any judgement on this? She may easily take offence, who knows?

  27. Diogenes@170

    I don’t think it comes as a surprise to anyone that Abbott is more enjoyable to be around than Rudd, especially away from the cameras.

    I am obviously not ‘anyone’ as it does come as a surprise to me.

    I haven’t read what Rudd was supposed to have said or done with the make-up artist. I would expect he was probably deep in thought about the debate to come, rehearsing lines in his head. She he was probably not the life of the party. So what?

    On the occasions I have attended functions where Rudd was present, he was courteous to everyone and quite entertaining.

  28. ‘I don’t think it comes as a surprise to anyone that Abbott is more enjoyable to be around than Rudd, especially away from the cameras.’

    If you like hanging around thugs that’s your problem.

  30. Costa and Smorgon putting public pressure on the AFL. The interesting thing here is that there are two streams of thought, not necessarily mutually exclusive. One is that the behaviour of Essendon has damaged the reputation of the game. Essendon has essentially conceded on many elements of this but the four individual defendants are holding out to protect their reputations. The other stream of thought is that ASADA by the way it conducted its investigation and/or leaked confidential information, and/or the AFL have damaged the reputation of the game. In other words, it is Demetriou who should be being charged, not Essendon and the Famous Four.

    Regardless, public comments by two highly-respected figures at the Cats and the Dogs are more examples that the reputation of the game is being damaged:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-22/hird-suing-the-afl/4904108

    I imagine that Essendon’s sponsors would be keeping a bit of an eye on their their reputational risks. They have remained doggo to date.

  33. Here it is, pretty much what I suspected about Rudd and the makeup artist:
    [Q: Were you rude to a make-up artist?

    I understand the person concerned has withdrawn her remarks from Facebook and indicated that she regretted making them, Rudd says. “I’m not all that happy getting makeup put on on the best of days.” Rudd says he was in the zone, someone was putting stuff on his face – and “misunderstandings can occur.” No hard feelings he says.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/21/election-2013-abbott-health-politics-live-blog?CMP=twt_gu ]

  36. [Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 11:17 am | Permalink
    I don’t think it comes as a surprise to anyone that Abbott is more enjoyable to be around than Rudd, especially away from the cameras.    ]

    The more important question is which one would you prefer to be running the country. Surely that is what we should be focussing on in an election campaign.

  38. CANBERRA, Aug 22 AAP – Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says he’s happy
    to take part in a third leaders debate with Opposition Leader Tony
    Abbott in western Sydney next week.
    A people’s forum hosted by Sky News has been pencilled in for
    August 28 at the Rooty Hill RSL Club and Mr Rudd wants it be run
    the same way as Wednesday’s face off.
    “Fine, I’m happy to do that in Rooty Hill or where ever,” Mr
    Rudd said in Geelong on Thursday.
    “The Australian public want to see their leaders debate each
    other on the big questions of the future.”
    Wednesday night’s town-hall style forum at the Bronco Leagues
    Club in Brisbane involved the leaders taking questions from an
    audience of 105 undecided voters selected by Galaxy Research.
    Mr Rudd confirmed he won’t be taking part in a candidates forum
    in Brisbane later on Thursday, citing his responsibilities as a
    prime minister leading a campaign for the government’s re-election.
    “I have done a debate already with local candidates which went
    for three hours,” he told reporters.
    “Has Mr Abbott ever debated his local candidate? The answer to
    that question is no.”
    The Brisbane Times is hosting forums at the Brisbane Powerhouse
    on Thursday involving key candidates in each of the city’s six most
    crucial seats, including Mr Rudd’s electorate of Griffith.
    Mr Abbott is yet to formally say if he’ll agree to the Rooty
    Hill forum.

  39. “@ChrisOBrienABC: Re Health policy: @TonyAbbottMHR Can’t say that no Medicare Local will close. But no funding cut. @ABCNews24 #ausvotes”

  43. [“@DrewBoyTweets: We have another Peter Dutton sighting. Almost as many as the Blue Mountains panther now.”]

    Its rumoured he claims to be the oppo Health spokes. I dont know if this has been verified by politifact.

  49. “@KarenMMiddleton: Tony Abbott says he was pleased to be looked after by makeup artist ‘Tilly’ last night. It was Lily. Says PM Rudd telling lies on policy.”

  50. I can’t find anything about the Palmer statement anywhere except in the Sunshine Coast and the Brisbane Times. Are the media going to ignore this?

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