Today’s Australian brings state and demographic breakdowns from the combined results of the Newspoll surveys of August 9-11 and August 16-18, which respectively came in at 52-48 and 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The overall sample is 2826 respondents, with sample sizes for each state ranging from 458 to 659. The narrowness of the range suggests the super-sized sample in this week’s poll was used to boost the numbers from the smaller states, by way of reducing the margins of error on today’s state breakdowns, the largest of which is 4.6%. The salient points:
• New South Wales looks to have done the damage in Labor’s weak ratings of late, the published two-party preferred coming in at 57-43. As you can see from the sidebar, this is a fair bit worse for Labor than the published and unpublished state-level numbers from other pollsters which have been used to determine the current BludgerTrack results.
• Victoria on the hand swings heavily the other way, a 54-46 lead for Labor suggesting only a swing to the Coalition of a little over 1%. This includes a 17% result for the Greens which most would consider a bit hard to credit, given the 12.7% result from 2010 and the general trend of the party’s fortunes.
• The numbers show Labor looking alive in all-important Queensland, a 53-47 lead to the Liberal National Party implying a swing to Labor of around 2%.
• The Western Australian results on the other hand paint a very different picture from one that has long seemed overly favourable to Labor in BludgerTrack. The two-party result is 59-41, implying a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% off an already very high base. It should be noted though that it’s around here that the margins of error start to push north of 4%.
• A 54-46 lead to the Coalition in South Australia is in line with talk that Labor should be concerned about Hindmarsh and perhaps one or two other seats in the state, suggesting as it does a swing of about 7%.
• Personal ratings don’t show a huge amount of interstate variation for Kevin Rudd, with Victoria being effectively even with his home state for his best net approval rating. His approval rating is higher among men (39%) than women (35%).
• Tony Abbott on the other hand rates considerably lower in Victoria (a net approval of minus 20%) than in New South Wales and Queensland (minus 5%).
I’ll be running all that through the BludgerTrack updatermator later today. You can view the full tables on voting intention here. You can also view aggregated state breakdowns for Essential Research here if you’re a Crikey subscriber, as you should be.
UPDATE: The Guardian has a Lonergan poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith which is raising a few eyebrows by showing his Liberal National Party opponent Bill Glasson leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). However, it’s well worth pointing out that Lonergan’s own blog reprints an article from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation which suggests we “trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new”.
lefty e@843
Unless somebody else polls them.
At this stage my comments are specific to Lonergan. There have been almost as nasty results in polls of some electorates by JWS and ReachTEL but those seem to be able to be explained by a combination of picking seats to poll and a slight Coalition skew.
Abbott will cause tooth decay in children under 18. Why has this not been reported?
My mother will be tickled pink that you think she’s imaginary Morpheus, what a ridiculous thing to say. Do you just presume that everybody who says something that doesn’t support the LNP narrative is lying?
She’s doing fine with the carbon tax so far, she found the compensation to be quite adequate.
My mother will be tickled pink that you think she’s imaginary Morpheus, what a ridiculous thing to say. Do you just presume that everybody who says something that doesn’t support the LNP narrative is lying?
She’s doing fine with the carbon tax so far, she found the compensation to be quite adequate.
The PB echo chamber how great is the ALP going and gee check out that useless Tony Abbott delusional shite is sounding a little sad now folks.
Can’t we just get on board with the reality of what’s happening and start looking ahead to the fecking wilderness years which will be long and many in number.
Forget the desperate stuff about shutupgate, no one cares.
Most punters think it humanizes Monkey.
It’s over.
The important question now is how does the ALP find it’s mojo again.
I think Rudd wore the gold tie to appeal to Chinese voters, gold being a colour related to wealth and power.
rossmore: its raining at the oval, may get a start after early lunch
triton:
Funnily enough storms are forecast here on election day.
MARI
Greetings.
Just in case you did not read back.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZYTRIdDgqY
Sorry not really to be less than serious.
Rosey, you can’t expect everyone to devote the time and effort into unrelenting pessimism that you do! We’re only human, some of us slip up from time to time.
RosemourorLess – Parties’ do not necessarily seem to have wilderness years quite so much now, the Coalition almost won in 2010 as did the ALP in 1998 after only one term out of office
[ Rosemour or Less ]
false advertising there is obviously mour mour mour
I’m not a pessimist.
Name the seats the ALP will take off the coalition.
Be sensible.
[The PB echo chamber how great is the ALP going and gee check out that useless Tony Abbott delusional shite is sounding a little sad now folks.
Can’t we just get on board with the reality of what’s happening and start looking ahead to the fecking wilderness years which will be long and many in number.
Forget the desperate stuff about shutupgate, no one cares.
Most punters think it humanizes Monkey.
It’s over.
The important question now is how does the ALP find it’s mojo again.]
Yes sure Dr Negative over to you enough of your pathetic wingeing about time you put up or shut up and you tell us how to find this mojo. Or do you only have constant negatives to offer ie nothing?
[Rosemour or Less
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:27 pm | PERMALINK
I’m not a pessimist.
Name the seats the ALP will take off the coalition.
Be sensible.]
Is this discussion 2013 or 2016?
[Abbott to cut penalty rates
http://m.afr.com/p/national/abbott_signals_support_for_change_qMfndlrzCL9FxPrmv3TN%5D
simon b
Almost in 98 sure.
But I call 96 to 07 wilderness.
I call 83 tp 96 wilderness.
I call 50 to 72 wilderness.
And I call 75 to 83 close enough to wilderness.
If Rudd’s in danger then the 2PP would be much worse than 54/46.
Howard was turfed having been PM for a very long time…and as soon as the public found a safe pair of alternative hands.
Rudd/Gillard haven’t been in as long, and Abbott is hardly a safe pair of hands. In fact he is on the ignorant sinister side of the human equation.
Tells you just how pissed the voter became with Labor’s not listening to it for so long. Who all the while decided poisoning the Rudd well would be good way to make people drink from the Gillard well….Well they went to the Liberal Abbott well instead. Not all wells end well, as the public will find.
The trick is to get the public to forget its decision to be pissed at Labor and get a glimpse of a near deranged Abbott ready to make everybody but the wealthy pay.
Some little shock therapy is required to get past a public’s bored glance at the news….get their attention then a short sharp message that gets through.
Griffith is naturally a LNP Seat… it’s in Queensland
@GC/866
So Rudd was right then.
Rosemour
Is there any point of repeated doom and gloom posts before 1 week from poll day? Remember keating vs dr hew? The simple fact is while opinion polls can be a reasonably reliable predictor this far out, THIS election is not typical imo.
lefty e
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 8:24 pm | Permalink
I heard a rumour that Dutton was the Opposition Health spokesperson.
Can anyone confirm this?
———————————————————
I can confirm that the lazy uninterested seat warmer, Dutton, who didn’t ask a question about the Health portfolio in over 1,000 days, is the Shadow Minister for Health
RosemourorLess – But if Abbott can win after 2 terms no reason the ALP could not, particularly as the Coaltion will likely introduce the biggest austerity measures seen since the war, and all governments across the west which have taken such measures since the GFC have suffered big falls in popularity, I doubt Oz will be different. When the economy is down, governments change with more frequency than normal circumstances!
I don’t think any one in the catholic church or our parishioners would be impressed with abbott kissing that old nun on the lips now I ve heard of another one a young chinese nun is that so,
when we girls left school for good we would never have even kissed the nuns on the check
no respect no respect for woman and now nuns
disgusting
Rudds animated passion on PPL and the farcical nature of this rort is good to see. The PPL is the most absurd piece of welfare every foisted on the Aust public in an era when we were told the age of entitlement was over. Going hard on the PPL from a number of angles the loss of franking credits, the payments to millionaires, the cost to the budget should be the key focus combined with the war on costings. Look at Abbott today – Rudd took the blow torch to him on tobacco overnight Abbott changes his tune.
‘Yes sure Dr Negative over to you enough of your pathetic wingeing about time you put up or shut up and you tell us how to find this mojo. Or do you only have constant negatives to offer ie nothing?’
Obviously you haven’t read any of my other posts.
But if you prefer:
Another great day for the ALP. The campaign is really firing now. Monkey’s completely unhinged as we knew he would and Rudd is on course for an historic victory. I’m guessing the ALP will win 86? maybe 90 seats? Could be wrong but it feels like we’re on a roll.
I almost feel sorry for the tories. Jeez, do they have any political instinct for campaiging at all!
Pathetic!
The next round of polls will be totally demoralising for the Libs.
How’s that?
Rosemour; reprogrammed, on-board and looking forward to the ALP victory parties on Sept 7!!! YAAAAAAY! Bring it on!!!!!!!
Abbott’s toast!
Toast I tell you!@!!!
Newspoll in Griffith on Sat apparently…..will be interesting!
[ Griffith is naturally a LNP Seat… it’s in Queensland ]
never met a Queenslander yet who says “mommy”, STisme. where you from?
so abbott has said he will decide what is on the PBS
saw that on the guardian ( health minister I suppose} but lets face it he would be every ones minister,
now lets see No pill,, no morning after pill and perhaps the ivf treatment, re medication,,
after all the popes infalable , so tony will know what is expected of him
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 14h
#Newspoll August VIC Federal 2PP: ALP 54 (+3 from Apr-Jun) L/NP 46 (-3) #ausvotes
Anyone else read the Libs so called health policy?
http://lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com/13-08-22%20The%20Coalition%E2%80%99s%20Policy%20to%20Support%20Australia%E2%80%99s%20Health%20System.pdf
Its got pages about how Nicola Roxon had problems with Kevin as PM first time around, pretty much bugger all else.
This is meant to be a policy document that health professionals right now should be considering how to implement in the incoming government briefs.
Rubbish from rubbish people who think they can sleepwalk into power.
Despite rumours to contrary Christopher Pyne is the Shadow Minister for Education.
Abbott just makes the announcements, like the Unity Ticket with Rudd on education.
He is another low performing seat warmer there more for the pension and pay packet than any care for the port folio.
3 questions about education in 3 years in proof of his lack of interest
You guys broke Rosemour :(.
Frequent changes of government have happened before, earlier last century it went 1908-1909 ALP, 1909-1910 Liberal, 1910-1913 ALP, 1913-1914 Liberal and 1914-1915 ALP again
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 14h
#Newspoll August VIC Federal 2PP: ALP 54 (+3 from Apr-Jun) L/NP 46 (-3) #ausvotes]
nice one
spectator
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:38 pm | Permalink
Rudds animated passion on PPL and the farcical nature of this rort is good to see. The PPL is the most absurd piece of welfare every foisted on
============================================================
met three sets of pensioners today in separate places all said they are taking there money out of super if abbotts
elected, and one tonight said it s going under the bed now in case,
so this the type of fear he has injected in to the thoughts of elderly people
Aussie
I know of two edu. forums where the lib turned up and said nothing, the other one they didn’t even bother
now education is the basis of any society be fore health even
or defence and they place it last
are they there for the money and the power now the people
This Bowen dude should speak out more often.
Chris Bowen @Bowenchris 20 Aug 25 years ago Labor abolished double taxation on company profits. Today, Tony Abbott confirmed he wants to bring it back to pay for his PPL.
ALP Leader by 30th December 2013
Bill Shorten $2.70
Kevin Rudd $4.00
it was him or us DN
If you have $200k in super earning between $16k and $20k you are going to close it all out for the sake of less than $200. Who is doing the fear rhetoric?
[pithicus
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:44 pm | PERMALINK
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 14h
#Newspoll August VIC Federal 2PP: ALP 54 (+3 from Apr-Jun) L/NP 46 (-3) #ausvotes]
An ALP lead of 54-46 is a swing to the LNP from 2010.
Marrickville Mauler
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:43 pm | Permalink
Anyone else read the Libs so called health policy?
http://lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com/13-08-22%20The%20Coalition%E2%80%99s%20Policy%20to%20Support%20Australia%E2%80%99s%20Health%20System.pdf
—————————————————-
Its another pamphlet full of un-costed mother care statements and an rants against Labor that we’ve been tortured with for the last 6 years.
Is that whining noise the sound of a jet engine slowing down…..no dear its the Liberal party
Mark Butler was very impressive on 730 tonight. I hope he retains his seat this election.
Butler correctly speared Direct Action (in particular the soil carbon aspect of it), as highly speculative and unproven – something I’ve been imploring the govt to point out since 2011.
I don’t know how Greg Hunt can keep a straight face when he defends this farce of an alleged carbon abatement policy. Pity Leigh Sales wasn’t more up to speed with some of the critical differences between the policies of the two major parties, but then again, too few journalists these days have a firm grasp of policy detail.
Sean Tisme@890
Seems punters think there’s almost as much chance of Rudd losing and hanging around as leader as of him winning the election.
+3 from Apr-Jun is a nice movemement mod
What did the federal ALP get in vic in 2010?
I THINK I WILL BE LOBBYING FOR POLLS TO BE BANNED
AFTER AL NO ONE REALLY KNOWS TO THE REAL ONE HAPPENS
GEES I M DAM WELL OVER DAM POLLS
They should do a survey to see if anybody reads political brochures dropped in letter boxes.