Today’s Australian brings state and demographic breakdowns from the combined results of the Newspoll surveys of August 9-11 and August 16-18, which respectively came in at 52-48 and 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The overall sample is 2826 respondents, with sample sizes for each state ranging from 458 to 659. The narrowness of the range suggests the super-sized sample in this week’s poll was used to boost the numbers from the smaller states, by way of reducing the margins of error on today’s state breakdowns, the largest of which is 4.6%. The salient points:
• New South Wales looks to have done the damage in Labor’s weak ratings of late, the published two-party preferred coming in at 57-43. As you can see from the sidebar, this is a fair bit worse for Labor than the published and unpublished state-level numbers from other pollsters which have been used to determine the current BludgerTrack results.
• Victoria on the hand swings heavily the other way, a 54-46 lead for Labor suggesting only a swing to the Coalition of a little over 1%. This includes a 17% result for the Greens which most would consider a bit hard to credit, given the 12.7% result from 2010 and the general trend of the party’s fortunes.
• The numbers show Labor looking alive in all-important Queensland, a 53-47 lead to the Liberal National Party implying a swing to Labor of around 2%.
• The Western Australian results on the other hand paint a very different picture from one that has long seemed overly favourable to Labor in BludgerTrack. The two-party result is 59-41, implying a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% off an already very high base. It should be noted though that it’s around here that the margins of error start to push north of 4%.
• A 54-46 lead to the Coalition in South Australia is in line with talk that Labor should be concerned about Hindmarsh and perhaps one or two other seats in the state, suggesting as it does a swing of about 7%.
• Personal ratings don’t show a huge amount of interstate variation for Kevin Rudd, with Victoria being effectively even with his home state for his best net approval rating. His approval rating is higher among men (39%) than women (35%).
• Tony Abbott on the other hand rates considerably lower in Victoria (a net approval of minus 20%) than in New South Wales and Queensland (minus 5%).
I’ll be running all that through the BludgerTrack updatermator later today. You can view the full tables on voting intention here. You can also view aggregated state breakdowns for Essential Research here if you’re a Crikey subscriber, as you should be.
UPDATE: The Guardian has a Lonergan poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith which is raising a few eyebrows by showing his Liberal National Party opponent Bill Glasson leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). However, it’s well worth pointing out that Lonergan’s own blog reprints an article from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation which suggests we “trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new”.
my say
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:47 pm | Permalink
Aussie
I know of two edu. forums where the lib turned up and said nothing, the other one they didn’t even bother
now education is the basis of any society be fore health even
or defence and they place it last
are they there for the money and the power now the people
——————————————————-
I know of an Adelaide based Shadow Education Minister who didn’t attend a debate at the Press Club because he has traveling from his Electoral Office in the suburbs of Adelaide to Adelaide
davidwh,
Abbott shouldn’t go around scaring pensioners then.
It’s the sort of issue that moves sectors of the electorate. If it takes hold that pensioners have to pay for someone else’s children to live in luxury, watch out Tony!
[pithicus
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:44 pm | PERMALINK
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 14h
#Newspoll August VIC Federal 2PP: ALP 54 (+3 from Apr-Jun) L/NP 46 (-3) #ausvotes
An ALP lead of 54-46 is a swing to the LNP from 2010.]
If it is genuine and not just a MOE thing then the swings the thing….if there is something there then likely to be elsewhere as well.
If the swing is on the public’s mind is for a changing….thus Labor should pile it on while it can.
So Abbott’s had his strings pulled again by his puppet-masters, this time on reducing penalty rates.
Thomas Paine:
I think you need to read the post, stop, think, and then repost.
….just a helpful suggestion! :devil:
[ Seems punters think there’s almost as much chance of Rudd losing and hanging around as leader as of him winning the election. ]
how big is the pool do you know?
my say, I know you’re no friend of Wilkie, but what do you think about Labor preferencing the Liberals ahead of him and hence potentially making Tony Abbott Prime Minister?
2010
Labor 55.31
Coalition 44.69
TP,
The fact that political parties send squillions on distributing pamphlets,information and brochures and have beeen doing so throughout our political history should tell you that it’s the most effective communications tool going.
@TP/903
check:
https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes
paaptsef@906
Don’t know. If it’s a new market probably pretty small. Might be more bookies’ view than punters. Haven’t seen it before.
[I know of an Adelaide based Shadow Education Minister who didn’t attend a debate at the Press Club because he has traveling from his Electoral Office in the suburbs of Adelaide to Adelaide]
Surprised Pyne is such a coward, normally he is the guy you have to say..does he ever shut up.
[Gary
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:53 pm | PERMALINK
What did the federal ALP get in vic in 2010?]
The ALP won Victoria 55.31% to 44.69%
So if the ALP gets a 54 to 46% win in Vic in 2013, that means a swing to the Coalition, and Abbott would win 2 seats (if the swing was uniform).
[TP,
The fact that political parties send squillions on distributing pamphlets,information and brochures and have beeen doing so throughout our political history should tell you that it’s the most effective communications tool going.]
I have never read one…straight from letter box to bin.
2010
On 2PP that 10+% only equated to two seats
Kevin,
As you well know, Labor’s preferences are unlikely to be distributed. Therefore, conjecture about their electoral impact is bullshit and unbecoming of a self appointed swami of psephology.
The Victorian Newspoll result being discussed is the same one that is the subject of this post. There is a link there to the full set of results.
Thomas. Paine.
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:59 pm | Permalink
I know of an Adelaide based Shadow Education Minister who didn’t attend a debate at the Press Club because he has traveling from his Electoral Office in the suburbs of Adelaide to Adelaide
Surprised Pyne is such a coward, normally he is the guy you have to say..does he ever shut up.
————————————————–
Got himself kicked out of Parliament often enough for being a loud mouth…..
Couple of general observations from today-
1. Pyne couldn’t be bothered facing Shorten at the debate because he was so busy. Guess who pops up today for his news grab? Pyne with the claim “Rudd goes after airline hostesses, now it’s make-up assistants”. I nearly literally threw my glass at the TV.
2. Gotta admire the audacity of News Limited. On a day when their man Brough has had a steaming pile of shit poured on his head, the day after Abbott looses his cool at the debate, the day when Abbott vows to cut penalty rates, what do we have on the front page of their website this evening?
[It wasn’t a great day for the PM, who first wore accusations he’d been rude to a make-up artist and then found he faces a fight to keep his own seat.]
Oh OK. It wasn’t a great day for Kevin Rudd.
FFS.
Thanks ML.
TP,
Your many years of posting here have alerted all and sundry that you are a strange fish with not much attachment to political reality.
ok so not a new today result. was kinda strange.
But there is movement a foot…just needs a kick.
The grey vote is for winning.
TBH, that Victorian figure is probably a bit too high.
Simon
This has been analysed at length here but I showed last year how coalitions tend to have longer terms in office by some 41%. (since 1901, 1723 days on average for Non ALP PMs and 1219 for ALP PMs)
In part, we posited that strength of factions (both in and outside parliament) was a bigger factor in Labor leadership which tends to cause greater instability.
The Coalition have a longer history of sticking with leaders whether in government or not. In part, this is due to the (relatively) weak alliances in the Coalition.
So, on balance.. the coalition term in government will not be short, most likely.
What scares the spaghetti out of the ALP is that Tony Abbott will NOT be extreme and the current conservative tide in Australia will stay out.
Leadership challenges whilst the LNP is in power are also almost completely unlikely.
So, chances are this will be 2-3 terms..
GG it’s a political scare and unfortunate if pensioners get unnecessarily scared rather than talking to their financial advisors who can quickly put the overblown scare into perspective. Sure Abbott’s PPL is poor policy however it isn’t Abbott running this particular scare.
899
my say
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:53 pm | PERMALINK
I THINK I WILL BE LOBBYING FOR POLLS TO BE BANNED
AFTER AL NO ONE REALLY KNOWS TO THE REAL ONE HAPPENS
GEES I M DAM WELL OVER DAM POLLS
============================
The forum is called the POLL Bludger. And for godsake will you please stop shouting? Everyone is sick of it and you’ve been asked several times.
@davidwh/925
It’s Abbott’s own fault for having expensive PPL policy.
[I can confirm that the lazy uninterested seat warmer, Dutton, who didn’t ask a question about the Health portfolio in over 1,000 days, is the Shadow Minister for Health]
All shadow and no health.
davidwh,
So the litany of three word phrases of the Opposition over the last few years are not scare campaigns. Spare me the sanctimony.
It will be sweet justice for the Libs if this were to take hold and they lost the election as a consequence.
Kevin @907
Everyone I’ve spoken to down here thinks the ALP is being petty regarding the Wilkie preferences, but that Wilkie will get in anyway. He’s very popular and respected, as you probably know.
GG I was just trying to get the discussion back to some rational level but I should have known better. Pensioners pulling their super money you have to be joking surely?
confessions [904]
Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:57 pm | Permalink
So Abbott’s had his strings pulled again by his puppet-masters, this time on reducing penalty rates.
Confessions, I always thought abbott was a hand or sock puppet, judging by his awkward gait. As a matter of fact, I’ve been speculating on how much lube he must get through, with his many handlers.
if you have FACE BOOK do any of you check the members area and like and share
I do it at least three times a day
I have sid, and dick jane and Julie and geof lyons
all being spread around the state so to speak
I rekon its good to get away from this newsl poll stuff and work for your memebers
smh.com.au @smh 14m
“If you believe the opinion polls, there must be two elections going on,” says Tim Colebatch.
http://ow.ly/o9Xku #auspol #ausvotes
Tend to agree
Glasson is running a very clever campaign against Rudd. He’s tapping into the likelihood that Labor will lose and then Rudd will quit parliament. So his slogan is
[Stop Rudd’s By-Election]
bluepill – Well considering Turnbull ousted Nelson who in turn was ousted by Abbott that may not hold true anymore. In any case, the economic will be rocky whoever wins, Oz has largely avoided the worst of the GFC, but growth is slowing nonetheless and with the Coalition pushing through the biggest austerity since the war that will inevitably almost certainly hit its poll numbers, so the circumstances will be different to what has gone on before. Turnbull also outpolls Abbott in every poll, if Abbott’s poll numbers start to sink that will give the Coalition pause for thought!
davidwh,
Whether pensioners pull their money or if people are going to move the New Zealand or if Tony Abbott is prepared to destroy all the freedoms we now enjoy is only going to be tested if Abbott wins the election.
It’s up to individuals whether they are taken in by the “kool Aid” commercials.
don’t bother posting back to me
I don’t read
many people here I am choosy
yes AA I know what you mean
but amazing isn’t it not turning up to education forums
how any one in their right mind could vote for the liberals is beyond me
education is the basis of our whole life
o well back to face booking
I ve estimated from the list these likes go through with
the links would be about 2000 people so its worth the effort I have no idea where a lot of them live and some on the main land so I have a few Sydney member s thrown in
you can do it through the labor face book area
its quite productive
Greensborough Growler@916
As you well know, in 2004 an upstart Christian party called Family First that scarcely anyone was voting for was unlikely to be elected to the Senate. Therefore, conjecture about the electoral impact of a Labor preference deal involving them and the possibility of it backfiring to the benefit of the Howard Government would have been bullshit and unbecoming of any self appointed swami of psephology.
Correct?
As you also know well, in 2010 an obscure Greens Party reject called Andrew Wilkie who had failed to be elected to state parliament with only 8% of the vote was unlikely to be elected federally and therefore discussion of the possibility he might do so would have been bullshit and unbecoming (etc)
Correct?
As you well know, hung parliaments are extremely rare in Australian electoral history. Therefore discussion of the possibility we might have one in advance of 2010 would have been bullshit and unbecoming (etc)
Correct?
The issue is not that the risk is low (even if most polls have in fact shown the Liberals heading Labor on the primary vote in Denison). The issue is that the risk exists. Even if it was one in a million, why take it?
Especially when having, the previous week, tried to scare voters with claims premised on the unlikely scenario of Wilkie again getting the balance of power and dealing with the Libs after ruling out doing so?
I think state Labor’s behaviour on this one is a disgrace that warrants federal intervention to demonstrate that this kind of devious Graham Richardson style rubbish is in the past. 🙂
Diogs,
It’s the campaign of a loser.
Better he tried, Vote for Me because I’m better than the other guy.
ModLib – That is virtually no swing at all in Victoria the, if it stays that way, the election will be decided by whether Queensland has a swing to the ALP to offset the swing to the Coalition in NSW
Crikey Whitey
Second go my connection to the hotel internet stopped just as I wasposting
Thank you for U Tube, my question is which one is POROTI ???
My poor tablet is very upset with the heat over here, especially the camera part , when outside often refused to connect to the computer?? If you will post your email address again will send some photos to you
Not feeling great with this cold, no wonder 45c outside and 23c inside hotel
How is the patient?
Have checked in on line with Qantas and still have the seat I wanted 😀 The car is booked the meal is booked, breakfast organised lus wake up call and I am more or less packed, so all go go 🙂
Kevin,
Long post saying nothing much.
Labor preferences won’t be distributed. Nothing to see. Move along.
GG
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin’
Just about every party has disgraced themselves this election with scumbag preferencing. Fortunately there has been some blowback for Wikileaks at least.
Diogs,
Written 50 odd years ago.
Didn’t quite work out did it?
when I do post here it not realy a post to any one
its just a post
so that’s why I really never read any ones comment and I never read the above never
not interested
I post for lukers, information links and just things that may be helpful for people
I post I click I leave
Simon Baker
Indeed, but not just NSW, you have to figure Tas, SA, and NT.
I do not subscribe to the idea that the ALP will win seats in WA either (as Bludgertrack had them doing, although I see with the current update those seats have gone).
The Coalition is heading for an 85 to 65 seat win still I reckon, and if that is wrong it will be more seats for the Coalition not less IMO.
Sure Abbott’s PPL is poor policy however it isn’t Abbott running this particular scare.
Not this one. Nor is Labor running a scare on this issue as far as I can tell. And it’s a trivial issue when you get down to it – under $10 per week for a typical self-funded retiree.
But it’s the Coalition that specialises in scare campaigns. The Carbon Tax wrecking ball (about $10 per week mostly compensated); creating moral panic over asylum seekers; comparing guarantee insurance to the situation in Cyprus; ditto ‘debt and deficit’; scaring people over the withdrawal of FBT rorts; and remembering back over the decades, maps of the Eastern Hemisphere with red arrows advancing through SE Asia to Australia. Maybe if the Liberals had a credible vision for Australia they’d spend some time talking about that.
[I can confirm that the lazy uninterested seat warmer, Dutton, who didn’t ask a question about the Health portfolio in over 1,000 days, is the Shadow Minister for Health]
LOL! No way!
Thats almost as funny as if Chris Pyne were… I dunno… shadow for education, or something.