Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling

The first substantial national-level poll in nearly week gives the Coalition an election-winning lead, but fails to corroborate the bloodbath that yesterday’s automated polls were pointing to.

At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.

GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:

• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.

• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.

• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling”

Comments Page 3 of 33
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  2. @Mick77/89

    We haven’t seen that much change, Reachtel last poll was 53/47.

    Last Newspoll’s were 52/48.
    Nielsen 52/48.

    While you say is true, there still hasn’t been that much movement overall, (remember, before election was called 50/50).

    There could be swings either way on election day too.

    As usual I wait for last week.

  3. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 18m
    ALP romp home on these numbers. RT @GhostWhoVotes Poll Seat of Melbourne Primary Votes: GRN 33.5 ALP 33.8 #ausvotes]

  4. guytaur – Yes, we call mobiles and you are right, it is a big factor in Melbourne as it’s got a very high percentage of 18-34’s.

  5. Simon B
    [Gillard territory was 57-43]
    At her worst. I think in the campaign she would have got back to around 45%-46%, and Rudd is aiming to do the same, from the opposite direction!

  7. guytaur@84

    With the reachtel we have a comparison.

    KB Galaxy has credibility to maintain even when commissioned by Greens. Just as when its commissioned by Newscorpse

    Galaxy’s credibility comes from its headline and basic leadership polling, beyond that they show a lot of signs of not caring much about their reputation even in their public polling (murky slanted questions and so on).

  10. zoid,

    as I said, what’s spooky is how little noise there are in teh polls. 3 years ago we’d be sitting here arguing about margin of error and rogue polls.

  12. Z 103
    Okay we seem to agree on something. And also I am delighted to see that the seat of Melbourne will be going back to a respectable party, namely Labor. Any party that “boasts” a representative like Lee Rhiannon doesn’t belong in a democratic parliament. So say a big thank you on that one to Tony who took one for the country.

  15. One thing is for sure what I said before these latest polls were released is it is the last week which will count.

    It can go either way with this too close to call territory.

  19. Kevin – Indi is certainly very interesting. Undecided voters were 7.1% and not redistributed in those quoted primary numbers.

  20. Kevin – Indi is certainly very interesting. Undecided voters were 7.1% and not redistributed in those quoted primary numbers.

  21. Mick77

    Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    AA

    I haven’t read one post where any Labor supporter has defended Rudd’s behaviour.

    I also never recall seeing any comment where they have criticised it. Hopefully you agree that Rudd’s efforts are heaps more offensive than Abbott’s warm but childish comment. And Rudd has never thought of apologising
    ————————————————

    how many years ago was that???

    you guys really do want to remain in the 20th Century.

  22. guytaur@113

    KB

    So view with caution a good policy them?

    All commissioned polls should be viewed with caution. Polls commissioned by Green groups of any kind doubly so because of the movement culture of using inflated poll results to get headlines. Double again for using Galaxy. 🙂

    I have no issue with Galaxy’s mainline polling – it’s got some claim to be methodically the best around and its accuracy record is good. The one problem is it’s *too* steady relative to other polls at the time and it has me wondering how on earth they do it.

  28. Rudd visits strippers
    Updated: 08:20, Sunday August 19, 2007
    Kevin Rudd has admitted visiting a strip club while representing Australia at the United Nations in New York.

    The Opposition Leader confirmed he had visited the ‘Scores’ club in 2003 while he was Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister and acting as a bipartisan observer at the UN.

    Mr Rudd has apologised for any offence the incident may have caused, and says he told his wife Therese all about it at the time.

  29. lefty e@125

    KB – a theory. Do they stick with the same respondents?

    Like Essential’s pool? No, as far as I know, Galaxy is random landline and mobile polling across the electorate in general.

  31. [Kevin Bonham
    Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 11:37 pm | Permalink
    guytaur@113

    KB

    So view with caution a good policy them?

    All commissioned polls should be viewed with caution. Polls commissioned by Green groups of any kind doubly so because of the movement culture of using inflated poll results to get headlines. Double again for using Galaxy.

    I have no issue with Galaxy’s mainline polling – it’s got some claim to be methodically the best around and its accuracy record is good. The one problem is it’s *too* steady relative to other polls at the time and it has me wondering how on earth they do it.]

    Kevin

    How did the final Galaxy polls in 2010 and 2007 fare in comparison with the other major polls?

  36. I wonder when the enigmatic Silmaj will return.

    Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 2:26 am | Permalink
    Crikey

    It does no good to anyone to throw in debate that is either false or reworded on partisan lines. Using false figures reworked by every man, woman, dog cat and political insect and having the ability to put this on public media is the greatest problem of today. What it means is that the debate is now influenced by all the new options of possible deceit . The interesting thing I find now is that certain comments can be predicted due to partisan nature of who is commenting. One thing we will have in common is that I will be visiting family in the southern part of SA and look forward to getting there opinion of how SA is going.

  39. Darn:


    ALP 2PP ALP L-NP GRN
    FED 2010 50.1 38 43.6 11.8
    Newspoll 50.2 36.2 43.4 13.9
    Nielsen 52 39 41.5 13
    Morgan phone 51 38 42 13
    Essential Research 51 38 43 12
    Galaxy 52 38 41 14
    Morgan F2F 52 40 43 13.5

    FED 2007 52.7 43.4 42.1 7.8
    Newspoll 52 44 43 7
    Galaxy 52 42.5 42.5 8.5
    Nielsen 57 48 40 8
    Morgan F2F 56.5 47.5 39.5 8
    Morgan phone 53.5 43.5 41.5 8.5

  41. [No, as far as I know, Galaxy is random landline and mobile polling across the electorate in general.]

    Thanks. Galaxy’s ‘stickiness’ is curious then, though you’ve helped explain why Essential tends to be stolid.

    Its a reality check anyway. The public doesnt swing around that wildly.

  43. Darn@131

    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 11:37 pm | Permalink
    guytaur@113

    KB

    So view with caution a good policy them?

    All commissioned polls should be viewed with caution. Polls commissioned by Green groups of any kind doubly so because of the movement culture of using inflated poll results to get headlines. Double again for using Galaxy.

    I have no issue with Galaxy’s mainline polling – it’s got some claim to be methodically the best around and its accuracy record is good. The one problem is it’s *too* steady relative to other polls at the time and it has me wondering how on earth they do it.


    Kevin

    How did the final Galaxy polls in 2010 and 2007 fare in comparison with the other major polls?

    Their final in 2010 was 52-48 to Labor which was mediocre. In 2007 their final was also 52-48 to Labor. Within MOE both times.

    For average 2PP error for those two years, they were behind Newspoll and Morgan phone and well ahead of Morgan face and Nielsen.

  44. [I have a feeling about Hindmarsh though.]

    Hindmarsh is gonna be touch and go. If Rudd loses the election by a large margin, it’ll probably get caught in the tide but if the swing is modest, Georganas will probably get over the line on local appeal. Too early to call that one though.

  46. Hi Crikey how are you?
    Just printed my boarding pass to get to London tomorrow then onto Dubai BT Weather changing over here more like Scottish weather today I am leaving 😀

    How is the patient coming along and more importantly the nurse?

  48. Mick77

    Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    AA

    Okay thanks – apology accepted. Now for the ratf*** Chinese and the f**** offs etc to female staffers apologies.
    ——————————————————–

    Nup. Apology from Abbott would be good to see….you know…a sentence that actually contains the word “sorry”…not some glib immature comment

    You so concerned about Rudd saying sorry – you research it…

  49. lefty e@141

    No, as far as I know, Galaxy is random landline and mobile polling across the electorate in general.


    Thanks. Galaxy’s ‘stickiness’ is curious then, though you’ve helped explain why Essential tends to be stolid.

    Its a reality check anyway. The public doesnt swing around that wildly.

    Does look likely Morgan’s small-sample 57 will be a shag on a rock.

    I have seen a few times before this year that Galaxy records a benign result and then Newspoll or Nielsen may yet return a shocker.

  50. Considering how shit a lot of things are, Im feeling rather chipper after that Galaxy.

    Yes, Abbott’s winning: but I suspect I no longer have to die in that ditch defending the rearguard line of the Senate.

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