Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling

The first substantial national-level poll in nearly week gives the Coalition an election-winning lead, but fails to corroborate the bloodbath that yesterday’s automated polls were pointing to.

At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.

GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:

• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.

• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.

• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling”

Comments Page 1 of 33
1 2 … 33

  1. 1410
    sprocket_
    Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 10:48 pm | PERMALINK
    48/52 , to use the technical term, is a bee’s dick between the parties, and shows what a crock these robo polls are.

  5. From previous thread:
    AA

    [I haven’t read one post where any Labor supporter has defended Rudd’s behaviour.]

    I also never recall seeing any comment where they have criticised it. Hopefully you agree that Rudd’s efforts are heaps more offensive than Abbott’s warm but childish comment. And Rudd has never thought of apologising.

  7. The robopolls were doing seats mainly around NSW, weren’t they? Labor’s doing really poorly in NSW so ofcourse they’re going to be worse than the national poll.

  8. [48 ALP 52 LNP 2PP]

    IS THAT ALL? FFS

    Bahahahaaaaaa. USELESS robopolls!!

    This means (at least) Rudd must be winning bigtime in ALP seats, which means the senate is STILL MINE. 🙂

    Or at the other end, the marginal polls are wRONg.

  9. @Mick77/5

    Actually Rudd has apologies a number of times, including last time he was PM, and not long after becoming Leader of Labor Party.

  16. Either there is a disparity between the robopoll seats and the national polls, or the swing is very uneven. Or all of the above.

    I’m sticking with the national polls as more reliable and relevant.

  19. Z
    [Actually Rudd has apologies a number of times, including last time he was PM, and not long after becoming Leader of Labor Party.]
    Happy to concede on this if you can give me some links to these apologies.

  20. @guytaur

    Living in NSW I can tell you how bad it is here. And it is certainly bad. However, I hear the results are a lot more positive in Victoria, for example.

  23. [PS You whingers can all apologise to Rudd & the ALP now.]

    Nope. The campaign is still shit, and the govt has to lift its game.

  26. [Labor’s in pretty bad shape if they’re supporters are CHEERING a 52-48 poll result which shows Labor continuing their decline.]

    Bullsh*t. We’ve just had a feast of absurd marginals polling showing a slaughter of epic proportion.

    52-48 is GAME ON PUNTERS. Yes, LNP in box seat, absolutely, but this is NOTHING LIKE the slaughter those shit-useless robopolls suggested.

  32. River

    I live in NSW and you are full of it. Voters are disengaged and will not focus until the last week. They only notice things like John Oliver’s coverage.

    So you must be talking to rusted on LNP people

  33. [Nope. The campaign is still shit, and the govt has to lift its game.]

    Actually, I party agree confessions, but only with the “lift its game” bit.

    Im sorry, but at 52-48, after the last 3 years of leadershit chaos, the campaign is officially “not shit”.

  34. @lefty e

    You are forgetting that this Galaxy poll shows Labor shedding another 2 points in primary.

    And Labor are getting slaughtered depending which seats you look at. There’s a reason Windsor and Oakeshotte bailed (2 of the Robopolls), and I wouldn’t be surprised at the result in Bennelong (people were saying they voted Howard out they didn’t vote Labor in. They’re reportedly very happy with Alexander.)

  38. @Guytaur

    Then you have blinkers on. There’s a reason that Barry O’Farrell still has a 20+ margin 2pp despite being an absolute shit premier.

  39. confessions@17

    @justinbarbour: #Reachtel poll, seat of Melbourne: Bowtell (ALP) 33.8 Bandt (Greens) 33.5. #ausvotes


    Now that’s close!

    Except that if the Libs follow their HTV card Bandt gets flogged on preferences from there.

    My national aggregate is unmoved by the Galaxy, still at 51.8.

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

    #ReachTEL Poll Seat of Indi Primary Votes: Mirabella LIB 43.5 McGowan IND 23.3 #ausvotes

  42. [@GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Seat of Indi Primary Votes: Mirabella LIB 43.5 McGowan IND 23.3 #ausvotes]

    Now with some right preference swaps, maybe SophieM gain?

  44. #ReachTEL Poll Seat of Corangamite 2 Party Preferred: ALP 44 LIB 56 #ausvotes

    #ReachTEL Poll Seat of Deakin 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 LIB 53 #ausvotes

  47. @Guytaur

    Unhappiness with the State Labor brand leaks over. If you’re saying that the Obeid saga has had no toll on Federal Labor in NSW despite being a State issue, then you’re lying about where you live.

  50. 48/52 is quite fare and good enough…given the circumstances…but if those robo polls are indicating an outcome in those seats…then a victory is out of the question.

    Like I said…the saturation
    negative on Rudd is everywhere
    in every little murdoch paper…
    If Rudd wants to close the gap he
    needs to get attention…not just
    normal electioneering.

    BTW…computer stuffed…random power offs…trying to fix…

Comments Page 1 of 33
1 2 … 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *