At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.
GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:
• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.
• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.
• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).
The robopolls did have a few ALP wins, ie Blaxland and Greenway, but were mainly focused on NSW, where the ALP is less strong and Abbott’s home state, so thus exaggerated ALP national losses. If there was an election tomorrow the Coalition would win, but not by a landslide, however there are still a few weeks to polling day so next week the ALP needs to go on the attack and pick up momentum, with Rudd giving a strong performance in Wednesday’s Town Hall with Abbott too
looks like Rudd agreeing to the forum with Abbott was a good move to put the snake under the microscope. Rudd was energised today and Abbott and libs are getting cocky espec with theses robopolls providing fools gold. ofcourse the media just got sucked in by them big time.
Z 28
I referred specifically to sexist/racist behaviour: the f**** outbursts with no regard for women, the ratf**** Chinese, and the drunken visit to Scores. Any apology links? None of your links are about Rudd’s apologies for that but gee whiz he’s had a lot to apologise for.
Crikey I posted my intentions for my say a week or so back. Not being rude but I’m not going to repeat it every time someone asks me.
River
You overestimate damage because you talk to rusted on LNP.
And Deakin
[@GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Seat of Deakin 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 LIB 53 #ausvotes]
River
Nah, Barry is alright, it’s just that he has that Liberal ball and chain he has to drag around with him. Luckily for him, parts of if have self destructed and broken off :P.
lefty e:
The govt is staring at defeat, there is no point denying this. The campaign is all over the shop, with no coherent unifying theme, and an unhealthy obsession with Abbott.
These are not the hallmarks of good campaigning, however much we want to see the opposition defeated.
[quote]ReachTEL Poll Seat of Deakin 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 LIB 53 #ausvotes[/quote]
Apparently, while Labor holds the seat of Deakin, the’ve only held it for 2 terms since 1930. So it won’t be a surpise if it goes back to the Libs.
Simon Baker
Look at Known voting in Kingsford Smith then compare to robopoll.
Says everything
[Say HELLO to next ALP ad,linking with broader theme of CUTS.]
Actually, that’s exactly what the current Labor ad I’ve been seeing has been saying.
[…but if those robo polls are indicating an outcome in those seats]
Possible, and if true, the ALP must be growing their vote in safe seats.
Something doesnt seem right about the latter though.
Its no Senate for Tony, punters. The line holds.
Now we advance!
crikey whitey@45
I’ve seen no SA Senate polling (it’s usually wrong anyway) so I know nothing re that one. Except that on general principles having got quota in his own right last time he’s likely to be OK.
Major Tom.P
“Tell my wife I love her very much”
I wonder who in Melbourne is benefiting from the fall in Green and ALP vote.
Both a well down.
Indi looks interesting.
52/48 not a bad poll, shows that Tone is still heading towards a narrow victory.
I agree qualitatively with much of your comment Confessions, and have been saying as much here (albeit a bit more positively than some).
The other possibility is QLD and WA are rising for ALP. If those marginals are correct – there has to be a rise elsewhere to account for national polls holding like this.
Thanks, Kevin.
This might get almost unanimous agreement.
“@MrDenmore: How appropriate that Australia’s national rugby and cricket teams match the quality if its politics: Crap.”
River – Deakin was quite close in 2010, so that is not a terrible poll for the ALP either in Victoria, clearly it is NSW where the worst swing is happening
But quantitatively, given everyhting weve seen this week, Im afraid 52-48 is clearly ‘not shit’.
From what zoomster has said McGowan is sitting on the fence re preferences.
sprocket_@42
I would like to see the full primary list on that one, want to see if the figures are with undecided included or excluded.
If that is with undecided redistributed (or included but only a few percent) then game on – might not happen on those exact figures but if SM’s primary can be kept down then the thing can be done. Time for Labor to start furiously tanking in that one. 🙂
leftye
No debate boost for Rudd in Galaxy, eh? (gap widened by 2 points). Waiting for Nielsen and News. The trend is my friend!
[Actually, that’s exactly what the current Labor ad I’ve been seeing has been saying]
Good.I really should watch commercial TV occasionally. I only see them on SBS.
guytaur – I am wondering if that is adding to a ‘feel bad factor’ I don’t think sports really influences politics, but one or two Aussie wins before polling day would certainly help
Mick
No debate boost for Abbott either. No meltdown no effect
[The other possibility is QLD and WA are rising for ALP.]
I believe William has suggested WA is.
Not sure about Qld. The polling in seats there and the state polling seems terrible.
Fair enough Mick – your gloat is received and accepted.
But from my perspective, after the week we just had: Im greatly cheered.
Nobody watched the debate.
@Mick77/73
It’s not bad considering, 52/48.
Coalition gained +1 on 2PP, but didn’t gain anything in Primary (went to the greens/others?).
Here it is, Lefty E:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kv8WCkKaNxQ
In relation to our marginal seat polling – we’ve targeted seats that we knew were in doubt. and therefore, rolling these results across the nation isn’t sound.
On top of this, these particular seats have some unique influences in them – retiring ministers, special preference deals and some big name candidates.
In essence, there is nothing “uniform” about the swing.
Peter Brent has declared his election betting . Going for value it would appear
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/some_of_my_election_bets/
With the reachtel we have a comparison.
Melbourne. Galaxy had Bandt on 48% primary. Given the galaxy v reachtel marginal results we should treat the reachtel ones with caution too.
KB Galaxy has credibility to maintain even when commissioned by Greens. Just as when its commissioned by Newscorpse
I did.
Simon
Sport does add a feel to an election. No idea of significance for votes though.
The other factor is that Galaxy has been a point in Labor’s favour when compared to the average. However there certainly seems to be a conflict between what all those individual seat polls are saying and this Galaxy.
Rudd needs to slow down. The bad thing about announcing 50 new policy initiatives every week is that none of those policies will get any air time. He needs to release a policy, spend a couple of days focused on it, then move on.
ALSO, attacking Abbott like he has all week is just taking even more news space away from his policy initiatives.
Rudd really is flitting around like a butterfly and it’s hard for the public to follow him. Just my 2 cents.
Z
[Coalition gained +1 on 2PP]
It actually gained +2 technically and if trend repeated it will be 53/47 in Newspoll and Nielsen. It’s amazing how much worse psychologically is 53/47 to 52/48, and then it’s only one more drift down to 54/46 – BINGO, Gillard territory.
leftye
[your gloat is received and accepted.]
Thank you. I’m looking forward to a bit more ingratiation though when Labs take 60 or less seats. Please start working on your concession post.
cw, you only think you did.
Davidwh.
Well, gosh.
Not to be rude.
Maybe you could say after you.
Whatever it may have been that I missed.
guytaur – Galaxy didn’t offer party names in that poll and just gave candidate names. We’ve provided candidate name and party.
NB: David Briggs of Galaxy responds here – The Management.
Oh yeah,Ive seen that one. Thanks William.
Oooo.
Display Name or nothing.
I had a dream.
Mick77 – Gillard territory was 53-47
The thing that bugs me is just how little noise there seems to be in the latest polls. Did you notice that too William?
Sorry, Gillard territory was 57-43
cw 😀
Guytaur – Indeed
[Like I said…the saturation
negative on Rudd is everywhere
in every little murdoch paper…
If Rudd wants to close the gap he
needs to get attention…not just
normal electioneering.]
And how do you suggest he does this TP? You’ve been advocating for Rudd for a long time. This kind of behaviour from Murdoch was predicted. What next?