At last, an actual national poll and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.
GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:
The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.
A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.
A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).
Nick Adams
Do you guys poll mobiles at all? In Melbourne may be of more significance than say Braddon.
@Mick77/89
We haven’t seen that much change, Reachtel last poll was 53/47.
Last Newspoll’s were 52/48.
Nielsen 52/48.
While you say is true, there still hasn’t been that much movement overall, (remember, before election was called 50/50).
There could be swings either way on election day too.
As usual I wait for last week.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 18m
ALP romp home on these numbers. RT @GhostWhoVotes Poll Seat of Melbourne Primary Votes: GRN 33.5 ALP 33.8 #ausvotes]
guytaur – Yes, we call mobiles and you are right, it is a big factor in Melbourne as it’s got a very high percentage of 18-34’s.
Simon B
[Gillard territory was 57-43]
At her worst. I think in the campaign she would have got back to around 45%-46%, and Rudd is aiming to do the same, from the opposite direction!
Nick Adams
Thanks good to know. 🙂
guytaur@84
Galaxy’s credibility comes from its headline and basic leadership polling, beyond that they show a lot of signs of not caring much about their reputation even in their public polling (murky slanted questions and so on).
Nick, thanks for polling Indi. Are those figures with undecideds redistributed or not?
[The thing that bugs me is just how little noise there seems to be in the latest polls. Did you notice that too William?]
If you just mean the national polls, then yes.
zoid,
as I said, what’s spooky is how little noise there are in teh polls. 3 years ago we’d be sitting here arguing about margin of error and rogue polls.
Yes, I did mean the national polls.
Z 103
Okay we seem to agree on something. And also I am delighted to see that the seat of Melbourne will be going back to a respectable party, namely Labor. Any party that “boasts” a representative like Lee Rhiannon doesn’t belong in a democratic parliament. So say a big thank you on that one to Tony who took one for the country.
KB
So view with caution a good policy them?
Galaxy don’t do noise.
One thing is for sure what I said before these latest polls were released is it is the last week which will count.
It can go either way with this too close to call territory.
Mick 77 – Hypotheticals, we can only deal with her final polling data
52-48 after that week?
I’ll admit I’m surprised.
Nick Adams, do you guys have any national polls coming up?
It’s been awhile since last one?
Kevin – Indi is certainly very interesting. Undecided voters were 7.1% and not redistributed in those quoted primary numbers.
Kevin – Indi is certainly very interesting. Undecided voters were 7.1% and not redistributed in those quoted primary numbers.
Mick77
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 10:48 pm | Permalink
AA
I haven’t read one post where any Labor supporter has defended Rudd’s behaviour.
I also never recall seeing any comment where they have criticised it. Hopefully you agree that Rudd’s efforts are heaps more offensive than Abbott’s warm but childish comment. And Rudd has never thought of apologising
————————————————
how many years ago was that???
you guys really do want to remain in the 20th Century.
guytaur@113
All commissioned polls should be viewed with caution. Polls commissioned by Green groups of any kind doubly so because of the movement culture of using inflated poll results to get headlines. Double again for using Galaxy. 🙂
I have no issue with Galaxy’s mainline polling – it’s got some claim to be methodically the best around and its accuracy record is good. The one problem is it’s *too* steady relative to other polls at the time and it has me wondering how on earth they do it.
zoidlord – Our last one was just 7 days ago 🙂
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-10august13
Everything is very fluid at the moment so no locked in plans at this stage.
The patient calls.
KB – a theory. Do they stick with the same respondents?
Nick Adams,
Ah ok, I thought that was ages ago 😛
Thanks!
Goodnight from me.
Thanks again Nick and KB for answering my questions.
Rudd visits strippers
Updated: 08:20, Sunday August 19, 2007
Kevin Rudd has admitted visiting a strip club while representing Australia at the United Nations in New York.
The Opposition Leader confirmed he had visited the ‘Scores’ club in 2003 while he was Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister and acting as a bipartisan observer at the UN.
Mr Rudd has apologised for any offence the incident may have caused, and says he told his wife Therese all about it at the time.
lefty e@125
Like Essential’s pool? No, as far as I know, Galaxy is random landline and mobile polling across the electorate in general.
http://www.messandnoise.com/discussions/1151695
[Kevin Bonham
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 11:37 pm | Permalink
guytaur@113
KB
So view with caution a good policy them?
All commissioned polls should be viewed with caution. Polls commissioned by Green groups of any kind doubly so because of the movement culture of using inflated poll results to get headlines. Double again for using Galaxy.
I have no issue with Galaxy’s mainline polling – it’s got some claim to be methodically the best around and its accuracy record is good. The one problem is it’s *too* steady relative to other polls at the time and it has me wondering how on earth they do it.]
Kevin
How did the final Galaxy polls in 2010 and 2007 fare in comparison with the other major polls?
AussieAchmed
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 11:44 pm | Permalink
http://www.messandnoise.com/discussions/1151695
Rudd apology re stripper
I hear that Tony Abbott just gave Twiggy a 45 mil promise..nice! Here’s an interesting read about Generation One
http://stoptheintervention.org/past-events/29-nov-2010-what-s-wrong-with-twiggy-forrest-s-generation-one
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f58_1188823692
Sep 3, 2007
A visit to a New York strip club continues to haunt Kevin Rudd who was ambushed by the Chaser’s Chas …
I heard Ch 7 are holding a debate tomorrow night…?
I wonder when the enigmatic Silmaj will return.
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 2:26 am | Permalink
Crikey
It does no good to anyone to throw in debate that is either false or reworded on partisan lines. Using false figures reworked by every man, woman, dog cat and political insect and having the ability to put this on public media is the greatest problem of today. What it means is that the debate is now influenced by all the new options of possible deceit . The interesting thing I find now is that certain comments can be predicted due to partisan nature of who is commenting. One thing we will have in common is that I will be visiting family in the southern part of SA and look forward to getting there opinion of how SA is going.
AA
Okay thanks – apology accepted. Now for the ratf*** Chinese and the f**** offs etc to female staffers apologies.
SA looking OK.
I have a feeling about Hindmarsh though.
Darn:
ALP 2PP ALP L-NP GRN
FED 2010 50.1 38 43.6 11.8
Newspoll 50.2 36.2 43.4 13.9
Nielsen 52 39 41.5 13
Morgan phone 51 38 42 13
Essential Research 51 38 43 12
Galaxy 52 38 41 14
Morgan F2F 52 40 43 13.5
FED 2007 52.7 43.4 42.1 7.8
Newspoll 52 44 43 7
Galaxy 52 42.5 42.5 8.5
Nielsen 57 48 40 8
Morgan F2F 56.5 47.5 39.5 8
Morgan phone 53.5 43.5 41.5 8.5
http://www.afr.com/p/technology/turnbull_cut_price_broadband_plan_cyno2UoMeEYk6G1E5KrCDM
Turnbull saying he had a fully costed policy a year ago. And since then all he’s done is bring out #fraudband and yep, its not fully costed.
[No, as far as I know, Galaxy is random landline and mobile polling across the electorate in general.]
Thanks. Galaxy’s ‘stickiness’ is curious then, though you’ve helped explain why Essential tends to be stolid.
Its a reality check anyway. The public doesnt swing around that wildly.
That didn’t come out the way I wanted it to, but hopefully you can work it out.
Darn@131
Their final in 2010 was 52-48 to Labor which was mediocre. In 2007 their final was also 52-48 to Labor. Within MOE both times.
For average 2PP error for those two years, they were behind Newspoll and Morgan phone and well ahead of Morgan face and Nielsen.
[I have a feeling about Hindmarsh though.]
Hindmarsh is gonna be touch and go. If Rudd loses the election by a large margin, it’ll probably get caught in the tide but if the swing is modest, Georganas will probably get over the line on local appeal. Too early to call that one though.
[I heard Ch 7 are holding a debate tomorrow night…?]
They offered, and as far as I know Abbott declined.
Hi Crikey how are you?
Just printed my boarding pass to get to London tomorrow then onto Dubai BT Weather changing over here more like Scottish weather today I am leaving 😀
How is the patient coming along and more importantly the nurse?
the ad is terrific
sorry river rudd is coping well under extreme conditions like murdoch attack craft …
Mick77
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 11:50 pm | Permalink
AA
Okay thanks – apology accepted. Now for the ratf*** Chinese and the f**** offs etc to female staffers apologies.
——————————————————–
Nup. Apology from Abbott would be good to see….you know…a sentence that actually contains the word “sorry”…not some glib immature comment
You so concerned about Rudd saying sorry – you research it…
lefty e@141
Does look likely Morgan’s small-sample 57 will be a shag on a rock.
I have seen a few times before this year that Galaxy records a benign result and then Newspoll or Nielsen may yet return a shocker.
Considering how shit a lot of things are, Im feeling rather chipper after that Galaxy.
Yes, Abbott’s winning: but I suspect I no longer have to die in that ditch defending the rearguard line of the Senate.