Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling

The first substantial national-level poll in nearly week gives the Coalition an election-winning lead, but fails to corroborate the bloodbath that yesterday’s automated polls were pointing to.

At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.

GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:

• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.

• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.

• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling”

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  1. [Wouldn’t the Rodent hate the Monkey surpassing his time in office]

    He’d hate it even more if it was someone like Turnbull.

  2. Sprockett – Just ALP voters so irrelevant, as I said they always preferred Gillard, swing voters preferred Rudd.

    Kevin – Will also have to see if the ALP attack ads and the Rudd v Abbott town hall on Wednesday have an impact

  3. Well said lefty e.

    Perusal of #Newspoll is only recommended if you’ve got a water cannon with which to spray some chemical that dissolves all the tinfoil hats said # attracts.

  4. Based on her renewed popularity vis-a-vis Rudd, Julia just increased the champagne order for her election night party. Oh how sweet is revenge? Just ask Rudd.

    I’m not surprised by this result. I warmed to Gillard for the first time the moment that Rudd returned and obviously I’m not Robinson Crusoe, but hell, what mischief. Seems like event the pollsters hate Rudd.

  5. I think the priorities of an ALP opposition will be as follows:

    1. Uniting and regrouping as quickly as possible.
    2. Structural reform (including some of the reforms suggested by Rudd)
    3. Making sure Abbott never takes off as PM.

    Achieve those, then you can think about a leader who can get elected as PM (which, as is evidenced by Abbott) is a lot more than you think.

  6. Mick77 – There is NO change for Gillard’s rating, every poll before she was ousted showed ALP voters preferred Gillard to Rudd, swing voters Rudd to Gillard. What is the point of having 43% of ALP voters fervent supporters if you cannot get to the 46-48% Rudd is now getting even with a dip in polling?

  7. [I’m not surprised by this result. I warmed to Gillard for the first time the moment that Rudd returned and obviously I’m not Robinson Crusoe, but hell, what mischief. Seems like event the pollsters hate Rudd.]

    Im surprised you think its an actual result, Mick.

  8. I think Newspoll is the most accurate.

    I rate them:

    1. Newspoll
    2. Galaxy
    3. Neilsen
    4. Essential
    5. Reachtel
    6. Morgan

    Although I’d bet that the Morgan phone poll gets it closest the night before the election.

  9. [#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2) #ausvotes]

    Thought so.

    I still think the election will be around 45-55 barring a miracle. I wonder if Rudd is writing his condolence speech?

  10. But Keating won with a 46% Newspoll, so it is still not over yet, the attack ads on cuts and Wednesday’s debate need to have some impact though

  11. Thanks to Kevin Bonham for that lateline 1993 link, two days before that election. Just finished watching it.
    Fascinating. Of the pundits on the panel Alan Ramsey and Rod Cameron both called it a clear win for the coalition, whilst Hugh MacKay said it was too close to call, as the undecideds was very high.
    Interestingly there was not one mention of Hewson’s birthday cake moment with Mike Willessee. Perhaps that was an episode whose influence has proven greater in the re-telling.

  12. Simon Baker@1482

    Mick77 – Gillard was more popular with the ALP faithfull than Rudd, just as Abbott is more popular with the Liberal faithful than Turnbull, but both Rudd and Turnbull are more popular with the public as a whole. It was also Rudd who got the ALP into power, Beazley had lost 2 elections and Crean polled poorly.

    I would dispute that Gillard was more popular with the ALP faithful.

    There were certainly some polls which did not show this and in any event, the incumbent will usually have an advantage which would have favoured her.

  13. Centre

    [Howard went for 11 years, Fraser for 8 years, Abbott minimum 6 could go 9, hell maybe 12]

    After THLV won in 2007, some said that the next Liberal PM was yet to be born. That was a mistake. Doing the same thing with colours reversed? Equally so.

    An Abbott regime will lack the administrative and political integrity to rule effectively. They have done no work on policy and are basically rock throwers. That’s not going to fly for 3 years now that rock throwing is an approved activity in politics.

    I don’t see why you’re whinng anyway. It’s not as if you have any serious attachment to distinctive ALP policy — you are planning, if I believe you, to vote for people who will strike it down — and from what else I can see of your politics, your attachment to the ALP seems entirely arbitrary. Now you are predicting politically successful LNP regmes for a decade or so.

    As far as I can tell, you stand for no clear idea, but seem to like “the wisdom of crowds” concretised in betting markets. That puts you clearly on the right of the spectrum.

  14. confessions@1484

    I think Jason Clare would probably make a good leader of the ALP

    I reckon his time is coming, just not yet.

    Electing another woman as leader would be a good eff you to those who so cruelly vilified Gillard, but I can’t see it happening.

    Only in your deluded world where everything is seen through the prism of gender.

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