Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling

The first substantial national-level poll in nearly week gives the Coalition an election-winning lead, but fails to corroborate the bloodbath that yesterday’s automated polls were pointing to.

At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.

GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:

• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.

• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.

• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling”

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  1. gloryconsequence – No camparison? An ALP leader who had ousted the previous PM to get the job and a very rightwing Coalition leader who no one much liked but everyone bar Paul Keating believed would win and polls giving a clear Coalition victory right up to polling day. No, no comparison at all!!

  2. Thanks CTAR1 but I am wondering if it is a positive direction at the moment

    No not riding camels not sure if I saw any advertising for them) Had my fill of camel riding in Egypt in Bedouin country
    when a big brute named Rambo(remind you of anyone πŸ˜€ ) took a marked nterest in my poor little female camel called Daisy

  3. [I find it very hard to believe Georganas will lose Hindmarsh.]

    Well it’s my opinion that if the statewide swing is around the amount that would require to unseat him, he’ll win on the basis of his community appeal. Likewise Kate Ellis. While both don’t have huge margins, they’ve been pretty consistent. Remember, both won their seats in the face of a Liberal landslide in 2004.

    However, if the tide against Labor is huge here, no amount of local popularity will be enough to stop it.

  4. [Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 9h
    @latikambourke carbon tax hits 500 businesses. Whose tax is bigger?]

    Onya Bongo, always with the facts. The rest of the press gallery are sheep.

  5. Next leader of the ALP?

    For god sakes, they better get it right and stick to him or her.

    Labor will lose again in 2016 so it may as well be Shorten.

    Although Chris Bowen is very prime minister material 😎

  6. ModLib – Hawke lost the 2PP to Peacock in 1990, Gillard lost the ALP majority in 2010, I was comparing what Keating and Rudd had as a base, ie very little.

    Morpheus – The key point was there was a small 2PP swing to the ALP, and if that happened again Rudd would win. Of course, the biggest swing in 2010 was in Rudd’s home state of Queensland which if Rudd were to eke out a win would probably see an above average swing back!

  7. Even though I prefer to refer to politicians by their last name only (unless there’s two of them with the same surname) I will refer to Kate Ellis by her full name so nobody thinks I am refering to Bob Ellis. Although statements like “Ellis might have trouble retaining Adelaide do make it obvious to whom I am referring”

  8. confessions @1558

    “Would Newspoll be so cruel?!”

    Well, they did bait GIllard for the last few months with the same Gillard vs Rudd polling so anything is possible.

  9. [gloryconsequence – No camparison? An ALP leader who had ousted the previous PM to get the job and a very rightwing Coalition leader who no one much liked but everyone bar Paul Keating believed would win and polls giving a clear Coalition victory right up to polling day. No, no comparison at all!!]

    Except this does not feel like 1993 anymore. Then you could feel the ALP momentum, the wheels started to fall off the cooalition campaign quite early an it just coasted to a stop.

  10. Last three Newspolls in ’93 were 50.5, 50 and 50.5 to Coalition. Not as clearcut as some people remember it and there were commentators and psephs tipping a Keating win (just a minority).

  11. KB

    Well I was unaware, like nearly everyone else I’d imagine, that there was no official betting on politics in 1993.

    Still, 2/7 and 5/2 are a far cry from 1/10 and 6/1.

  12. [Well, they did bait GIllard for the last few months with the same Gillard vs Rudd polling so anything is possible.]

    Surely no pollster would poll preferred Labor leader with 3 weeks until the election day?

  13. @Kevin Bonham

    [Last three Newspolls in ’93 were 50.5, 50 and 50.5 to Coalition. Not as clearcut as some people remember it and there were commentators and psephs tipping a Keating win (just a minority).]

    Yes remember this, it was close in the campaign much closer than months previously.

  14. [Surely no pollster would poll preferred Labor leader with 3 weeks until the election day?]

    Anything to cause controversial fodder.

  15. Dr Fumbles McStupid@1564

    gloryconsequence – No camparison? An ALP leader who had ousted the previous PM to get the job and a very rightwing Coalition leader who no one much liked but everyone bar Paul Keating believed would win and polls giving a clear Coalition victory right up to polling day. No, no comparison at all!!


    Except this does not feel like 1993 anymore. Then you could feel the ALP momentum, the wheels started to fall off the cooalition campaign quite early an it just coasted to a stop.

    You couldn’t feel the ALP momentum early in the ’93 campaign. They had led big in polling in late ’92 then started ’93 in the 49s. Second and third weeks of the campaign they got a couple of bad Newspolls and were generally thought to be toast. The point where they recovered and got back into it – we’re not there yet.

  16. On Gillard polling, if she is just preferred amongst ALP voters no change, she always outpolled Rudd amongst ALP supporters, while Rudd won with all voters. If all voters would be a change

  17. Kevin – come on mate. You’re better than that. I’d like to know how a primary of 34 and approval slipping is going to be turned in to a 39+ primary by election day.

  18. @gloryconsequence

    [Four weeks ago it was reminiscent of 1993. But not anymore. Reminiscent of 1996…]

    You must be psychic I was just thinking this too but we haven’t seen the ominous wipe-out polls like in 1996.

    There are elements too of a reverse 2007 with comments about ‘great campaigner’ same said for Howard and reversing a 48-522pp.

  19. @Kevin Bonham

    I just remember the steady drop for the Coalition in 1992-3 and Keating playing the long game and playing it well.

  20. [Messiah Rudd ‏@Messiah_Rudd 11m
    RT @1995Jacko: Preferred Labor leader (ALP voters) #Newspoll

    Julia Gillard 48%
    Kevin Rudd 32%
    Paul Howes 20%]

  21. Well when the Liberals have won back government, they have usually bolted in.

    1996 and 1975, so this may not be too different.

  22. [Who do you like for next Labor leader?]

    Dick Adams’ beard πŸ˜›

    Seriously though, a uniter. I’d rather a boring Beazley type who can get the party to get its shit together ASAP. I’d take Albo for that role, TBH. (No, I don’t think he’d get elected PM).

    Who do I think they will go with? Either Shorten or Bowen. Both of whom do have factional support and charisma and see themselves as PM material but it won’t be what the party needs after a loss.

  23. gloryconsequence@1582

    Kevin – come on mate. You’re better than that. I’d like to know how a primary of 34 and approval slipping is going to be turned in to a 39+ primary by election day.

    I’d wait and see if other pollsters are getting the same before assuming that is really the picture. We have had a pretty benign Galaxy, but it is not unusual lately for Galaxy to be benign just before a shift.

    If we do get widespread 53s-54s this week it will be pretty much over. As it is I think the government’s chance is slim but not writing it off just yet.

  24. Yes, and obviously ‘1995Jacko’ is a highly placed figure privy to advance Newspoll data, before Ghost Who Votes.

    As opposed to any old jackass jerking off on twitter.

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