Highlights of day three

A happy ending for Labor in its candidate crisis in Dobell, but the betting markets continue to move against them.

With 30 days to go:

• Labor has resolved its preselection difficulty in Dobell by recruiting Emma McBride, a former Wyong councillor and head of pharmacy at Wyong Hospital. McBride is the daughter of Grant McBride, who held the local state electorate of The Entrance from 1992 to 2011. She had initially been a candidate for the original preselection process which had lately hit a brick wall with the non-ratification of Trevor Drake’s endorsement, but announced her withdrawal in May. It evidently took some strong persuasion by party administration to get her back on board.

• Centrebet has hiked the payout on a Labor victory from $4 to $4.80, with the Coalition in from $1.25 to $1.18, and there is now $4.80 to be had on a Labor win from Betfair against $1.26 for the Coalition. Sportsbet and Tom Waterhouse continue to offer $4 on Labor. Sportsbet has lengthened Labor’s odds in Petrie, Moreton and Parramatta but shortened them in Dobell, presumably on the back of McBride’s endorsement. Labor is now paying $2.50 in Dobell and the Coalition $1.50, compared with $3.50 and $1.25 at the start of the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Highlights of day three”

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  7. Possum on twitter says Beattie has approval ratings in Queensland made Howard during Gillard look pedestrian! And Howard’s ratings during that time were excellent.

    Put Forde in the red column

  10. Not only does Beattie boost Labor’s chances in Forde, but he can now campaign in Qld as one of the team rather than from the sidelines. He will get 100x the media exposure throughout Qld than he was going to get, and parochial Qlders will now be musing about Beattie PM (or DPM, so having the top two positions in the government).

  11. [Ugh! Mrs Newman isn’t the nicest lady going around from what I have seen either.]

    Ah, but her (“Eastie” faction) family is seriously rich, with very powerful networking liks & considerable political punch.

  12. Victoria
    I admire your restraint.
    It would have been so easy to that irritating ‘not’ at the end…you meaning by ‘wonderous’ you meant crappy….like, you know sarcastically saying my childish little rejoinder was really good but you know really meaning it was bad by saying ‘not’ after it but you didn’t….well done you!

  13. URGENT REQUEST.

    Anyone got a link to anypics of the Fibs NBN launch with the holigram of Sonnyboy Williams. I am desperately searching right now.

    The one where the idiot sloganman says to Talcolm “is that a holigram”

  16. And hi to you Victoria, the weather over here still amazing, hav nver seen such crowds before in Edinburgh.Went with the in laws yesterday around The Royal Mile could hardly move the crowds were s dense
    After midnight so tobed now night night

  17. A getaway Audi car parked on York Street – metres from where Albanese and Thomson were photographed on Tuesday night – was later towed for use as evidence

    I’m surprised the Telegraph’s front page headline wasn’t ‘Albo and Thomson spotted at scene of robbery’. That’s not quite true of course. They were in the general vicinity but not at the scene of the crime. And the timing was out by a day or so. But that wouldn’t bother the Telecrap.

  19. poussyclaw

    this could be the answer

    ==============================================

    http://www.americancatholic.org/News/StemCell/

    The Catholic Church is against embryonic stem-cell research because it involves the destruction of human embryos. Pope John Paul II said embryonic stem-cell research is related to abortion, euthanasia and other attacks on innocent life.

  23. mari

    It appears that Climate change is a good thing is some parts of the world at least! 🙂

    Happy to know you are having a good time

  24. “@MikeKellyMP: This election is a choice between a hostile takeover bid of govt by billionaires (Gina, Rupert, Clive) & Rudd govt for our kids future!”

    =========================
    Abbott on now 24

  25. [Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics
    Here’s the political geography Beattie faces in Forde. Dark = safe, light = marginal. pic.twitter.com/Rwk7ajjpol ]

    The map looks very blue for a marginal seat.

  26. jeffemu
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 9:02 am | Permalink
    URGENT REQUEST.

    Anyone got a link to anypics of the Fibs NBN launch with the holigram of Sonnyboy Williams. I am
    ===============================================================

    if you put in to twitter language I could tweet George bludger

  27. “@ChrisOBrienABC: The first MP for Forde in 1984 was Liberals’ David Watson, who gave Peter Beattie the “media tart” label #auspols #fancythat @SmartState1”

  32. Many punters still don’t get how the coalition’s fraudband actually sells the country up the creek.
    The Murdoch stuff would be much more effective if the government really made it simple to understand. Preferably by using my waterpipe and tap analogy posted yesterday.It really does light that little ‘got it’ look on peoples faces…….running out of time to save the NBN folks

  33. Can’t speak for My Fellow Cane Toadies… But on Beattie Redux:

    (a) In some quarters he’s still seen as a Labor cleanskin; a smiling Clintonesque figure. So a small circuit-breaker effect (though as Carr showed, the return of an old Premier, however competent and charming, isn’t going to sway fundamental problems in a party’s electoral base).
    (b) In other, broader Qld quarters, his days of power seem so long ago that this’ll have a Back to the Future quality making Rudd’s resurrection seem purely forward-looking.
    (c) It is an odd thing, having eschewed a federal role years back when he was at his peak, for Beattie to return to electoral politics at a time most people are planning retirement. It’s worth noting he’s taking on a marginal seat a fair way south of his residential base (Brisbane central). Present odds are that at best he would end up a spokesperson in opposition. Laborites will read this optimistically – that he and his head office backers must believe Labor can hoover up seats in Qld. Others will speculate that Beattie is interested in being opposition leader after Rudd if they lose.

    I’m charitable enough to think that Beattie, like many, abhors Abbott’s style of politics (as much as he is a kind of positive version of its glibness). And so with politics and a love of the limelight in his veins, and bored of being a mere commentator, he wants to not die wondering if joining the Qld Push could’ve helped it over the line.

  34. Confessions #58 personally I think it’s awful however it will probably work for Labor. The thought of both Rudd and Beattie in cabinet together is a truely horrible thought. I’m wavering now.

    My reason is Beattie ended up an ordinary premier and threw Bligh the worst of hospital passes then took up a cushy job in the US and left Bligh to take the fall for his poor decisions. But like Rudd for some unknown reasons people see to like him.

    Today I’m very confused and concerned even more.

  35. This.

    [Not only does Beattie boost Labor’s chances in Forde, but he can now campaign in Qld as one of the team rather than from the sidelines. He will get 100x the media exposure throughout Qld than he was going to get, and parochial Qlders will now be musing about Beattie PM (or DPM, so having the top two positions in the government).]

  36. Rosemour or Less

    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    AA

    Abbott is not axing the tax. He’s replacing it with taxpayer funded handouts to big polluters.
    ———————————————————-
    Good to see someone else has read the Direct Action document.

    And it’s not been properly costed. Best guess from Abbott and Co is $3.2 billion and that’s without paying compensation to the companies for the carbon credits they have purchased

  37. ‘Tasmania has gone backwards’

    Not really. It shows he gets the mood down here….
    Labor’s in for hiding if Kevin doesn’t pull something out of the lolly bag

  39. [I love to have a beer with Thomson]

    Tsk! Tsk! Sean. Didn’t Brough & Ashby invite you to their Plotting to get Slipper & Roll Gillard Parties on QLD’s Sunshine Coast? So you’re just a humble foot-slogger, eh? Not invited by LNP Movers & Shakers?

    Never mind. Perhaps when you learn to how to use Internet search engines to check facts, then finish high school, you might be a less embarrassing example of why no one in their right mind should vote for Abbott’s Liberals.

  40. Every seat is going to count in this election. It’s going to be very close, I sense. As the Rudd glow fades a bit, attention will turn again to Abbott – and the grave misgivings many voters hold.

    But on the seat count, just think of events in recent days: Dobell pretty much locked up, Forde now a likely gain, and Melbourne far more winnable for Labor than had previously been thought.

    The tide is moving in Labor’s direction.

  41. [Well the Tele has taught me that there is a beer house in York Street. I thought they were all in the Rocks.]

    The Belgian isn’t in York St, it’s in Harrington St just behind the Regent or whatever it’s called these days. That’s just how tenuous the link is, and I can’t help thinking that it craps on just about every journalistic ethic still standing.

  44. davidwh

    When business leaders are not confident of Abbott and his company tax cut, including Corbett this morning, there is no excuse for being confused

    [RBA board member Roger Corbett was on Fran this morning and he said the company tax cut is a bad idea because we can’t afford it. He says we need more revenue, not less, to pay for NDIS etc., and Abbott needs to show how he’ll pay for the tax cut.]

  48. Barrie Cassidy says that Labor did not expect to win Forde only because Des Hardman was a poor candidate. Now a blessing in disguise.

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