Highlights of day three

A happy ending for Labor in its candidate crisis in Dobell, but the betting markets continue to move against them.

With 30 days to go:

• Labor has resolved its preselection difficulty in Dobell by recruiting Emma McBride, a former Wyong councillor and head of pharmacy at Wyong Hospital. McBride is the daughter of Grant McBride, who held the local state electorate of The Entrance from 1992 to 2011. She had initially been a candidate for the original preselection process which had lately hit a brick wall with the non-ratification of Trevor Drake’s endorsement, but announced her withdrawal in May. It evidently took some strong persuasion by party administration to get her back on board.

• Centrebet has hiked the payout on a Labor victory from $4 to $4.80, with the Coalition in from $1.25 to $1.18, and there is now $4.80 to be had on a Labor win from Betfair against $1.26 for the Coalition. Sportsbet and Tom Waterhouse continue to offer $4 on Labor. Sportsbet has lengthened Labor’s odds in Petrie, Moreton and Parramatta but shortened them in Dobell, presumably on the back of McBride’s endorsement. Labor is now paying $2.50 in Dobell and the Coalition $1.50, compared with $3.50 and $1.25 at the start of the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Highlights of day three”

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  1. The Project has said that watching the full video of the Abbott kiss it wasn’t creepy at all and I agree with them.

    The picture of Craig Thomson hanging out with his Labor mates on the other hand…

  15. [LNP holds Forde with 51.6% 2PP.]

    I know nothing about Des Hardman, having never heard of him before, but surely Beattie as Labor’s candidate improves their chances of winning it off the LNP???

  16. I love to have a beer with Thomson… I love to have a beer with Thomson… we drink in moderation.. just one more and back on the job… we drink at the Belgian Bier Cafe, where the atmosphere is great.

    Oh I love to have a beer with Thommo, cos Thommo’s me mate!

  18. The Age reports that Labor claims it is doing much better in Melbourne than Adam Bandt claims. A ReachTEL poll on 29 July has the ALP on 36%, Bandt 33.9% and Lib 22.9%. The Libs are preferencing Labor ahead of the Greens in exchange for Labor preferences in Mallee. The Libs didn’t stand a candidate in Mallee in 2010, but now they want to steal it from the Nationals.

  20. This is a little tenuous – a report from the Telegraph about a ram raid at Louis Vuitton in Sydney:

    [The would-be thieves were taken to The Rocks police station to be charged, but not before ransacking the luxurious handbag store, where merchandise was seen strewed across immaculately polished floors.

    Police will allege that a large amount of property was removed and that numerous fittings in the store were also damaged.

    A getaway Audi car parked on York Street – metres from where Albanese and Thomson were photographed on Tuesday night – was later towed for use as evidence.]

  22. [Josh Barro ‏@jbarro 30m
    I’ll be on All In around 8:20 on MSNBC discussing “like Detroit” and “like Greece” comparisons with guest host @ezraklein.]

    Off topic, but seriously, what is the future for Detroit? It doesn’t look good.

  24. I love to have a beer with Ashby! I love to have a beer with Ash……..we drink in moderation.. just one more and back on the job… we drink in the Speaker’s office,where the atmosphere is great.

    Oh I love to have a beer with Ashby cos Ashby’s me mate!

  27. Confessions

    He was not exactly a high profile human dynamo sort of guy from what I saw. However I was not aware he had withdrawn.

  28. Thanks Crikey…

    That link deserves being put in the vault for later use.

    Mrs Murdoch might be of interest too it appears. Things are starting to get nasty in the courts apparently.

  29. Have been going to fringe events over here in Ediburghm loved the one yesterday a musical , who tacked Homosexuality and racism head on, the musical is based on Sesame Street, amazing singing too.
    Have managed for about the sixth time not to go to Lady Boys from Thailand down on The Meadows, fairly close to me.too. 😀
    OK off to bed now

  30. ‘And when I say “highlight”, I mean NOT.’

    We get sarcasm Danny.
    Do you explain joke punchlines as well.
    Sheesh.

    Break a leg. NOT!

    FFS

    Can we stop it with the NOT.

  31. [Kimberley Ramplin ‏@Kimbo_Ramplin 46s
    Beattie. Move one into the ‘red’ column. #Ausvotes]

    Seems Labor voters are impressed with the news. 🙂

  34. Forde is currently held by the Liberal National Party’s Bert Van
    Manen.
    Trade Minister Richard Marles says it’s very exciting news.
    “Peter Beattie is one of the most formidable politicians that
    Labor has in this country,” he told Sky News.
    “In a seat like Forde he’s going to make a real difference.”
    He said Labor Party members around the country would be
    heartened by the news of Mr Beattie’s candidacy.
    “What it says is that Australia’s leading Labor figures
    absolutely believe in the Rudd government, believe that we will win
    this election and are going to want to make a contribution,” he
    said.

  35. Beattie in Forde?
    Possibly one of the 3 seats they’re gonna lose cancelled out.
    I s’pose it’s a start.

    One duck lined up.

  38. [Paul Syvret ‏@PSyvret 6m
    1/2 Beattie in 2011: ”some time on the back bench followed by a dignified exit would put Kevin in history…”

    Paul Syvret ‏@PSyvret 6m
    2/2 ”…as a man interested in good government and not himself. Kevin has to put Australia first.”]

  40. I am confident Beattie ‘s entry means the ALP can expect to do v well in QLD.

    You think Rudd is popular in QLD? You ain’t seen nothing.

  43. Abbott supports NDIS and School funding. Abbott will actually stop the boats which Labor now tries to pretend it’s going to do. Abbott will keep the Carbon Tax compensation but axe the Tax just as Rudd has promised.

    What will just be so terrible under Abbott?
    ———————————————————-

    He’s adopting all Labor’s policies. Just keep Labor

  44. confessions

    Is Syvret going to link comments Beattie made thereafter when he actually thought Labor had a better chance with Rudd going forward

  47. Also Hutchens in Fairfax Top executives wary of tax cut costs

    [But it {Business Council of Australia} also reminded the government that it would like the tax cut further. ‘‘The BCA has called for lowering the company tax rate down to 25 per cent as a priority, but only when fiscal circumstances permit to make Australia’s system more internationally competitive,’’ BCA president Tony Shepherd said.

    Mr Shepherd also remained concerned about the Coalition’s paid parental leave scheme, the $4.3 billion cost of which will be borne by the country’s biggest companies.

    ‘‘While most businesses will benefit from the tax cut when it takes effect on July 1, 2015, the fact that Australia’s larger businesses will be required to pay a 1.5 per cent levy to fund the Coalition’s paid parental
    leave scheme remains a concern.’’

  48. Victoria

    I’m saying BEATTIE WILL PROBABLY WIN FORDE and that will CANCEL OUT ONE OF THE 3 SEATS THEY’LL PROBABLY LOSE IN TASMANIA.

    Sorry to shout but I thought it was pretty obvious. NOT!.

    See it’s irritating.

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