Highlights of day three

A happy ending for Labor in its candidate crisis in Dobell, but the betting markets continue to move against them.

With 30 days to go:

• Labor has resolved its preselection difficulty in Dobell by recruiting Emma McBride, a former Wyong councillor and head of pharmacy at Wyong Hospital. McBride is the daughter of Grant McBride, who held the local state electorate of The Entrance from 1992 to 2011. She had initially been a candidate for the original preselection process which had lately hit a brick wall with the non-ratification of Trevor Drake’s endorsement, but announced her withdrawal in May. It evidently took some strong persuasion by party administration to get her back on board.

• Centrebet has hiked the payout on a Labor victory from $4 to $4.80, with the Coalition in from $1.25 to $1.18, and there is now $4.80 to be had on a Labor win from Betfair against $1.26 for the Coalition. Sportsbet and Tom Waterhouse continue to offer $4 on Labor. Sportsbet has lengthened Labor’s odds in Petrie, Moreton and Parramatta but shortened them in Dobell, presumably on the back of McBride’s endorsement. Labor is now paying $2.50 in Dobell and the Coalition $1.50, compared with $3.50 and $1.25 at the start of the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Highlights of day three”

Comments Page 4 of 24
1 … 3 4 5 … 24

  1. In addition to having been Oz’s original Media Tart drawing journos as a honey pot draws ants, Peter Beattie, like Rudd, is not only a “farm kid from Rural QLD” (Beattie from Atherton Tableland) but also experienced great family trauma a kid. Also like Rudd, he’s married to a highly successful woman (before retirement, a Uni Professor).

  2. davidwh

    Its an Abbott, Pyne, Bishop, Morrison, Bernadi etc ticket for LNP

    Bunch of extremists still worse than a Rudd/Beattie ticket by far

  8. 20 new Tweets

    Wayne Swan ‏@SwannyQLD 1h
    After @JulieBishopMP’s effort on @Lateline, all of Lib leadership team have now confirmed jacking up GST is firmly on table under Abbott Gov

    Retweeted by Br

  9. davidwh, if Labor wins then Beattie will probably be a minister for something, which will be the extent of his influence. He won’t be running the country (at least not yet!).

  10. castle i think the Abbott kiss photo is much more damaging than the Thomson bar photo. Abbott looks creepy and sleazy.

    great news re Beattie, ALP’s Qld prospects looking very good indeed

    glad Rudd has raised the Murdoch/Foxtel issue. About time. Surely Rosemour you will be happy? (for once?)

  11. [Today’s DY page is the best reason I know for never voting the way Murdoch demands we, his OzSerfs, do.]

    Ron Tandberg’s biting cartoons against Abbott deserve front page on the SMH & Age.

  13. I think y’all missed Sean Tishim misspelling.

    66
    Sean Tisme
    .. just one more and back on the job… we drink at the Belgian Bier Cafe, where the atmosphere is great.

    Liked a beer there, meself. Pity.

  14. Just how is Abbott going to fund the $70b? He said they have 17 of savings, although he said 5 in his budget reply. Where is the rest of the money coming from? Bigger deficit, more taxes or less spending.

    The numbers have to add up somehow.

    And to think these clowns are on the brink of victory, and the OM willing to just wave them through

  18. Triton I need time to take all this in. It’s a shocking decision by Rudd in my opinion and virtually destroys any credibility he had about making Labor more democratic. How can you trust any of them?

    I wish I lived in Forde. Then my decision would be very easy.

  22. A shocking decision?

    What planet do you live on DavidWH.

    Labor was on track to lose in Forde. Now they look certain to pick up the seat. The only sense in which that is shocking is that it’s shockingly smart.

    The LNP could only wish they had someone of that calibre, popularity and campaigning genius up their sleeve to drop into a seat like that.

  25. Alot of coalition supporters are starting to get the feeling

    Newsltd/Abbott coalition was the biggest mitake liberal party done

    They shouldgot rid of it when Abbott failed to get into government at the end of 2011

  26. “@TurnbullMalcolm: Left Edgecliff 8.08. Arr Parramatta 8.48. doubt you cd have done it by car in that time. And much less stressful. Meet new people.”

    I told him to tell Mr Abbott

  27. [glad Rudd has raised the Murdoch/Foxtel issue. About time.]

    yep good move andrew.

    Abbott and Hockey showed with cigarettes, gambling and the mining tax that they can be bought by sponsorship.

  28. davidwh, in this case it seems that Hardman was a dud candidate. If the ALP was in danger of not winning a seat with a < 2% margin even with Rudd back, then you would think that ALP members in Forde would be regretting their decision. If winning the seat is their priority, they could hardly be displeased with Beattie. It was too late to pick another local, who would have to start from scratch.

  29. I still think the most likely outcome is a Coalition victory with a <10 seat majority, but here is how Labor can win:
    NSW: Looks likely to hold Dobell, and so probably also Robertson, while the Lib candidate in Greenway is giving Labor every chance. Lindsay remains a worry, but I'm a bit more confident about Reid and Banks. Macquarie a real chance, Bennelong a dark horse.
    ACT: Sage Labor town, no change.
    VIC: High water mark for Labor in 2010, so no wins likely, while La Trobe and Corangamite at risk of going.
    TAS: Some polling suggests Bass and Braddon (and even Lyons) at some risk, but I'd like to see more data there. The margins for all of these seats are pretty substantial.
    SA: No real likelihood of seats moving either way (much as I'd like to see Chrissy Pyne go).
    WA: Improving polling suggests Hasluck and maybe Swan are back in play, and Labor should win at least one of them.
    NT: Solomon definitely in play – lost of public servants in Darwin nervous about Abbott. Conversely, some small risk for Labor in Lingiari.
    QLD: Where the election will be won or lost. Brisbane, Forde (especially with Beattie as candidate), Dawson, Bonner, Longman and Flynn all some chance (in descending order), with Dickson as the dark horse.

    In summary, Labor needs to win a net three seats (in addition to Melbourne, which will either stay Green or return to Labor) to retain government. They are likely to pick up a seat in each of WA, NT and NSW, and lose about the same amount in Tas-Vic-NSW, which suggests that if they can pick up 3-4 seats in Queensland, they will just make it.

  30. [It’s a shocking decision by Rudd in my opinion and virtually destroys any credibility he had about making Labor more democratic.]

    He had no credibility on that to begin with. But in the end it’s whatever it takes to win.

  37. The person who destoryed most of the coalition supporters and pro coalitiion media credibiluty is Abbott

    By getting into bed with newsltd

  38. “@ABCNews24: Hunt: We’ve seen revelations that the PM’s closest officials knew that there’d be house fires #ausvotes #homeinsulation”

  40. abbott making us a special zone is patronizing we don’t need that
    sound like he is talking down to us

    and the gst thing wouldn’t trust him
    and none of that gives us any jobs

    what looser

  42. I believe the next step in the GST debate is for Abbott to announce that he would cut the GST, because, like cutting company tax while simultaneously increasing it, it is ‘good for workers’.

    You know it makes anti-FUD.

  43. Great move with Beattie as a candidate – now they need Bracks and Thwaites to run in some marginal Vic seats, Martin and Scrymgour in the NT, and Beasley in WA (OK, I’m getting facetious at the end there).

  44. Hugo i don’t think you’re right. In vic coorangamite and deakin are gone, la trobe most probably- so that’s -3, the x2 ind seats will go national, -1 at least in tassie, and another -2 in NSW i’ld say.
    with beatie now in queensland we should get forde and some more marginals if he campaigns hard.
    So Alp has to make up -9. they should get melb with preferences from lib, and 6-7 in queensland. i think they’ll fall short

  45. The Nats are crossing the floor on the PPL, last I heard. I suppose that means that Abbott would put it up in order for it to get knocked off in the Senate.

    In the interim, there is somewhat of a question: Is the Coalition a coalition or a shambles?

  46. “@_AdamTodd: Abbott’s next stop is a Toyota dealership in Launceston. He will be speaking about FBT changes. #tennews #ausvotes”

  47. triton
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 9:48 am | PERMALINK
    Hunt on pink batts now. Move on, mate.

    ——–

    They have to d owhat newsltd tells them to do

    The liberal party have themselves to blame they allowed Abbott to jump into bed wiht news ltd in 2009

  49. Hilarious suggestion that Rupe’s separation from Wendi has freed him from the stifling influence of her ‘leftie Hollywood friends’…

    On which planet do ‘lefties’ do lunch with billionaires’ wives?

    (Actually, don’t answer that; the world has changed and I’m stuck in my study reading Down and Out in Paris and London.)

  50. sf, great idea, but unlikely. Bracks was offered Roxon’s seat but knocked it back.

    Boerwar, the Greens support Abbott’s PPL.

Comments Page 4 of 24
1 … 3 4 5 … 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *