Highlights of day three

A happy ending for Labor in its candidate crisis in Dobell, but the betting markets continue to move against them.

With 30 days to go:

• Labor has resolved its preselection difficulty in Dobell by recruiting Emma McBride, a former Wyong councillor and head of pharmacy at Wyong Hospital. McBride is the daughter of Grant McBride, who held the local state electorate of The Entrance from 1992 to 2011. She had initially been a candidate for the original preselection process which had lately hit a brick wall with the non-ratification of Trevor Drake’s endorsement, but announced her withdrawal in May. It evidently took some strong persuasion by party administration to get her back on board.

• Centrebet has hiked the payout on a Labor victory from $4 to $4.80, with the Coalition in from $1.25 to $1.18, and there is now $4.80 to be had on a Labor win from Betfair against $1.26 for the Coalition. Sportsbet and Tom Waterhouse continue to offer $4 on Labor. Sportsbet has lengthened Labor’s odds in Petrie, Moreton and Parramatta but shortened them in Dobell, presumably on the back of McBride’s endorsement. Labor is now paying $2.50 in Dobell and the Coalition $1.50, compared with $3.50 and $1.25 at the start of the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Highlights of day three”

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  1. Castle – is that photo real? I saw it last night and thought it must be photo shopped. If it is real and gets into the msm (guess which outlets will not publish it?) it could be Abbott’s Latham handshake moment (although if his catatonic quivering over the ‘shit happens’ interview didn’t do him in, nothing will).

    that picture is just plain creepy. I think we’re lucky it is shot from the midriff, as I suspect he is rubbing himself on her leg.

  2. [It shows his views of Tasmania]

    8.1% unemployment under Giggling Lara and the Green Puppeteers most certainly is going backwards. Taswegians agree and are leaving the state en-mass

  3. “@ABCNews24: More news conferences coming up: Greens Leader @senatormilne at 10:15am AEST and Health Minister @tanya_plibersek at 11:00am AEST #ausvotes”

  4. Sustainable Future

    Bracks, yes! If he would. I dont’ know of the other.

    May as well have everyone aghast at the audacity.

    Note: no leaks prior to Beattie announcement..

    Triton, that was then.

  5. I’m expecting Beattie to say that he “… couldn’t stand idly by (same as Rudd) and watch Tony Abbott join Campbell Newman in the wrecking of the state of Queensland. Abbott demonstrated his lack of care for Queenslanders when he vote to deny federal assistance during our recent natural disaster … ” etc

    I knew that Abbott would one day pay for his shameful attempt to deny financial assistance for the Queensland recovery.

  6. Crikey Whitey

    [e drink at the Belgian Bier Cafe, where the atmosphere is great.]

    I thought of it more as a Freudian slip BIER (English) definition: a frame or stand on which a corpse or the coffin containing it is laid

    So the Libs are already dead & ready for burial, are they? Nice one, Sean! Keep up the good work!

    To modify Shakespeare: Oh what fools these Tories be!

  7. Not convinced about Rudd picking a major fight now. He is giving the Daily Tele more credit and weight than it deserves. By throwing a tantrum about Murdoch, he is telling the punters that he is seriously concerned about what is being said.

    Labor had its chance to do something about Murdoch around the time of Leveson, and they fluffed it badly with Conroy’s utterly bizarre “take it or leave it” media reforms. Now they are paying the completely predictable price.

    PS I notice that the Ruddstoration has led to a resumption of delusion amongst some here, where every single thing is a master stroke for Labor and Abbott and the Libs are going off a cliff. The reality is that we are still tracking for a modest Coalition victory at this stage, which is at least an improvement on the disaster we were heading for as a nation.

  8. I am seeing this a lot on twitter. Retweet of course

    “@TaodeHaas: DON’T agree what Murdoch is doing to our country? STOP supporting him don’t buy his crap papers STOP Foxtel subscription, DON’T vote LNP.”

  9. Excellent news for Labor about Peter Beattie standing in Forde. Beattie was a clever politician, but not a cynical one. Labor shoudl manage the explanation of why Hardmann is standing down carefully, but the change is unambiguously good.

    Not only was he good at winning elections, he performed well in parliament too. With senior Labor figures retiring, Beattie would greatly strengthen Labor’s parliamentary stocks, as Bob Carr has done. Plus Beattie is not that old. He could serve for a few terms if he wanted.

  10. ltep
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 9:47 am | Permalink
    It’s a shocking decision by Rudd in my opinion and virtually destroys any credibility he had about making Labor more democratic.

    He had no credibility on that to begin with. But in the end it’s whatever ITEP WROTE

    ======================================================

    why do u make that statement

    as far as I am conerened its dam good politics,

    we are past the days of pussy footing around and political correctness

    abbott has none of that

    so what should we do tip toe around

    NO WAY, is do a great job in saving us from this disgusting lot

    and david I always new you where never serious about voting labor
    as vicy says own it

  11. [The reality is that we are still tracking for a modest Coalition victory at this stage, which is at least an improvement on the disaster we were heading for as a nation.]

    That’s how I see it, but there’s still time for it to change yet. In either direction.

  12. I think we have talked before about Abbott’s problem with personal space. When another pollie is talking at a presser he stands far too close and frowns at them (to indicate intelligent attention, one supposes!) Almost has to be pushed aside for the other to get to the mic.

    He’s just socially awkward IMO.

  13. [I am seeing this a lot on twitter.]
    What are you seeing in the real world from people who don’t already have 100% locked in political views?

  14. sustainable future

    [Castle – is that photo real? I saw it last night and thought it must be photo shopped. If it is real and gets into the msm (guess which outlets will not publish it?) it could be Abbott’s Latham handshake moment]

    Not only real but In the media – Fairfax! Abbott misses the mark as babies duck for cover

    Photo under the video & opening sentences.

  15. The boycott of News Media needs to move onto pressure on main advertisers who market themselves as progressive. I haven’t bought any of his shitsheets for about four years now – who are the main advertisers nowadays? I suspect they are all pro-lib pricks anyway – from memory it was car ads, banks ads, energy companies, private health insurance companies and coles/woolies/dan murphy. Dick Smith the company has nothing to do with the man now, otherwise there’d be a chance of him doing a high profile withdrawal of advertising.

    It probably wouldn’t achieve much other than a headline that a boycott is going, but if anyone can suggest names of advertisers I ,might try to get something going on change.org, getUp, etc.

  16. That Abbott kissing picture is seriously disturbing.

    It would, of course, totally destroy a Labor politician, but will be largely ignored by the MSM.

  17. sustainable future – the reality is that anyone with a brain has been boycotting anything to do with Murdoch for years now. Those who buy it buy it with full knowledge that it is a shamefully biased exercise in bile and hatred.

  18. victoria@174

    davidwh

    I am rusted on Labor, and it seems to me you are a rusted on LNP supporter. Just own it

    Well said victoria!

    Davidwh’s handwringing over who to vote for is getting a bit tedious.

    The Libs make it damn easy for anyone with half a brain. Just look at the cuts they are going to make, schoolkids bonus, low income earners super etc and who is going to benefit from their policies, high earning mothers, big companies etc.

    They operate on the principle:

    [“From those who have least shall be taken,
    To those who have most shall be given.”]

    If those rotten principles appeal to you then go right ahead and vote for the bastards and I hope your good mum deals with you accordingly.

    To me it boils down to this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbddqXib814

  19. Patrick bateman

    ltep
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 9:47 am | Permalink
    It’s a shocking decision by Rudd in my opinion and virtually destroys any credibility he had about making Labor more democratic.

    He had no credibility on that to begin with. But in the end it’s whatever
    ================================================================

    that was UK problem it would never have any impact here

    people in aust took NO notice of leeveson they would not a clue

  20. It appears Rudd has fallen into the same trap that Conroy did. How’d that work out for him?

    And everyone says he’s the smartest guy in the room, apparently.

  21. Centaur:

    [So AlP has to make up -9. they should get melb with preferences from lib, and 6-7 in queensland. i think they’ll fall short]

    At this stage, it’s less rather than more likely that they will win Melbourne from Bandt. The last poll puts Bandt on 48% primary, so even if the Libs preference the ALP — unlikely IMO — Bandt would still win.

    In any event, even if the ALP did win the seat it wouldn’t help, since Bandt is never going to support an Abbott-led regime and it’s therefore irrelevant to the ALP’s chances of claiming office.

  22. So, who here doesn’t understrand that the GST money goes to the States?

    Who here doesn’t understand that it is up to the States to decide if they want to change the GST?

  23. [people in aust took NO notice of leeveson they would not a clue]
    Sorry, but that is absolutely false. Virtually everyone I know was extremely interested in it, and most of them watched at least some of Murdoch’s testimony. I doubt there would be anyone who follows the news to the slightest degree who would be unfamiliar with the phone hacking issue.

    It was the perfect opportunity, because it allowed Labor to use something that people can easily understand and relate to (sleazy tabloid sleaze) to effect changes which are difficult and hard to understand (cross media laws and truth in political reporting in particular).

  24. [Milne taking it up to Abbott more effectively than the government yet again.]
    It’s easier when your policies in key areas are actually different.

  25. triton

    Labor plus Nats v Greens plus Liberals would make for a historic senate vote and would be fairly indicative of whatever it takes, whenever it takes and whoever it takes.

    The Informal Party would, of course, abstain from any such rigamarole.

  26. Crank
    [Who here doesn’t understand that it is up to the States to decide if they want to change the GST?]

    Rubbish. The federal government changes the GST. The states have to agree, but what state will refuse a bucket of money with the federal government taking the blame?

  27. Speaking of politicians and children, the Rudd visit to a Korean preschool went somewhat better than Abbott’s. The news showed video of a 4yo future politician grabbing the limelight and exchanging ‘high fives’ with Rudd. All the adults looked happy.

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