Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 37
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  1. Davidwh

    Since the last election the Liberals have pretty much dominated the polling.

    The trend over that time has looked strongly in favor of the Liberals, now it has narrowed to a more normal looking set of polls.

    How long will this continue, i suspect until the election campaign starts then it will drift one way or the other.

  4. lefty e,
    [As predicted: GRNs the only clear winners from the asylum seeker pissing contest.]
    imo that’s the factor underlying the difference between the % of women and men whose primary vote went 2 the greens – 12.5% vs 8%.

  9. The only trend that matters is the current one. With had a good month of polling since Rudd took over. From that, two things are observable:

    1) The Coalition’s unbeatable lead has evaporated.
    2) Obvious rogues aside, the picture seems to be at 50/50ish right now.

    Where the Coalition was sitting in March 2013 or August 2012 is of no consequence because it’s not a footy scoreboard, it’s a gauge of current opinion. That’s it. Also, the factor that was hurting Labor’s vote (I hate to say it but it’s true), Gillard is gone, so those polls are not relevant anyway (although can serve as a reminder of how much the public can turn against the government if it missteps)

  10. I think it is safe to say that polls for the years before a Federal election have little to do with the ultimate result.

    As the election gets nearer the polls become more accurate, because less people will change their vote.

  12. Was the 2010 vote for LNP in Qld a protest by Queenslanders over the sacking of Rudd?

    Will Rudd now being back in the “big chair” see a swing back?

    Will there be a vote against the LNP because of Newman?

  13. [The Morgan face-to-face poll from the weekend before the last election was biased to Labor as always, although not by as much as usual (it had them 52-48 ahead).]

    Both Galaxy and Nielsen also had the ALP leading 52-48 with their election eve phone polls.

  17. Liberals are now saying that treasury is being bullied but can’t cite how

    Just make it up as they go along

  20. [You wish.]
    I acknowledge that in any group of people, including Greens voters, there would be a minority who are xenophobes, racists, or whatever.

    Greens voters are a disparate group who vote Greens #1 for a variety of reasons. They would include those whose over riding concern relates 2 environmental issues including sustainable population.

    U were right the first time – i was having fun at PB’s polling conspiracy theorists 🙂

  21. We could always paint our lifeboat green on the outside and red on the inside. Then we could throw the oars overboard to make the whole thing more realistic.

  23. frednk,

    That’s the very photo i was looking for last night as i wanted to post the link….my google searches were unsuccessful 🙂

  24. Boerwar,

    I did have the pleasure of hearing Drew Morphett mispeak the phrase “Up country punt” when he was describing a passage of play in an AFL game one day.

  25. Remind me someone… did the Hazaras back the West at some stage… because if they did they are in deep doo doo.

  26. Poroti …

    [Hmmm Fran a Pink Floydian ? ]

    Oh yes … along with the Moody Blues, Santana, Jimi Hendrix, Led Zeppelin, Eric Clapton, Jeff Beck, Edgar Winter, Jon Mayall, Chic Corea, Leo Kottke, Jethro Tull, Yes …

  28. MB #51 agree. At this time Labor is looking a better prospect because Rudd is more acceptable to people than Abbott.

  29. sprocket_@8

    Gary Morgan must be polling the docter’s wives around Brighton again

    10.5 Greens is a touch on the hi-side

    Essential’s Green sample may well have been in double figures this week given their two-week result moved from 7 to 9. Maybe the asylum-seeker issue boost is just a bit slow. It only looked like a point or so from a very low base last week.

    My aggregate 2PP is 50.2 to Coalition but that’s after applying an apparent house effect correction of 1 point to Essential (matching the 1 point applied to Morgan from last week the other way). Essential and Morgan have each consistently fallen on opposite sides of the fence and in a 50-50ish polling environment that gets suss. Without the change it’s 50.4.

  30. http://thehoopla.com.au/therese-war-what/

    ===================================

    I was amazed at the sarcasim and nasty re marks

    a poster earlier posted a picture of mrs howard with JWH
    in timor with our troops

    was the same sarcasim directed at mrs howard

    I don’t recall that it was

    I think it wonderful that mrs rudd went, we do have ladies in our forces
    and those that make remarks about Kevin taking his wife

    ect,, don’t u think it nice for a PM who travels and is very busy to have his life companion with him

    o the jealous sarcasim

    made me quite upset. when my OH travelled if I could of gone with him re his work it would of been so good for our marriage.

  33. gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:51 pm | Permalink
    50-50.

    =========================================
    one thing I am not Is a doubting Thomas or a concern troll

  39. well re the morgan poll I suppose it s who u ask

    =commonsense tells me that
    ==============================================================

    ==========================================================

    http://johnmenadue.com/blog/?author=1

    In my blog of July 20, I referred to the Regional Settlement Agreement with PNG. With some reservations I described it as the least-worst option. Some were surprised at my comments. I wish it were otherwise, but in the toxic and poisonous political debate over refugees since John Howard’s time, we have had to face up to many unpalatable facts.

    The coalition has been the principal cause of this toxic situation. It broke with bipartisanship on refugees because it felt it was to its political advantage to focus our fears on the foreigner. I don’t think the coalition has genuinely wanted the boats to stop whilst ever it was in opposition. It was political manna from heaven to have the boat arrivals continue.

    The Greens have taken a “holier-than-thou” political position and have sided with Tony Abbott in the Senate on the key issue of the agreement with Malaysia. The Greens and many NGOs have wanted the government to undertake a political ‘mission impossible’.
    ===============================================================read more

  42. Fran Barlow

    Not sure about your politics but I do believe your music choices are nae to bad 🙂 Music transcends politics . Even those in the PB lounge accused of being ,gasp, Liberals or Lib trolls would like you choices.

  45. Intuitively, apart from the Greens, the harder Labor goes in the boats saga, the better the polls should become.

    Rudd has still to get back to 52-48.

    However, putting this to one side, the point is Labor can win.

    It alls comes down to the election campaign and I suspect Rudd is steeling himself up for this crusade.

    I see the General Blimp advising the conservatives (Molan?) on boats has said that “It will all be fixed in three years – at least in the first term of the Abbott government. Trust me!”

    So, three years now eh?

    I thought, according to the conservative mouthpieces who come here, all this stuff could be fixed up immediately?

    “Just pick up the phone to Nauru Julia!”

    What a tosser.

  47. Ginger Baker? Sure … why not?

    GG

    Nobody will ever beat this sports blooper …

    The bowler’s Holding, the batsman’s Willey …

    closely followed by …

    Ray Illingworth is relieving himself at the Northern End 😉

  48. [Pegasus
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

    frednk,

    That’s the very photo i was looking for last night as i wanted to post the link….my google searches were unsuccessful 🙂 ]

    NP

    I should add that I support the PNG solution. If your going to be nasty, it is better the money gets spent on something useful, the PNG wastes a bit on a processing center and a lot on roads, hospitals and universities.

    A lotter better than the no advantagee test which wasted money on jails on god forsaken islands for the god forsaken to burn down.

  50. When the offical campaign starts, it wont be only joe hockey sweating furiously it will be pro coalition media and newsltd/abbott coalition

    the only chance newsltd/abbott coalition has is for abbott not to be exposed in the campaign.

    Abbott will have to remain a coward , and hide from the debates

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