Galaxy: 50-50

Contrary to talk of stalled momentum for Kevin Rudd after a relatively weak Newspoll, a new Galaxy poll has Labor’s primary vote with a four in front and a dead heat on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has two-party preferred at 50-50, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 44% for the Coalition. This compares with a 51-49 lead for the Coalition at the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor up two on the primary vote and the Coalition steady. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J fills the blanks: “Greens Primary for this poll is 9. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers? Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change? Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31 Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future? Rudd 46, Abbott 36. July 23-25. 1015 sample.

We also have the Launceston Examiner reporting ReachTEL polls of 600 respondents in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons show the Liberals continuing to lead in all three, although details provided in the article are sketchy.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham has kindly passed on results of the ReachTEL poll of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. The polls were conducted on Thursday from respective sample sizes are 626, 659 and 617, for margins of error of around 4%. The results unusually feature personal ratings for both the Labor incumbents and Liberal candidates, which show a) implausibly high recognition ratings for all concerned (only 1.5% of Braddon respondents had never heard of their Liberal candidate, former state MP Brett Whiteley), b) surprisingly weak results for the incumbents, and c) remarkable uniformity from electorate to the next.

Bass (Labor 6.7%): Geoff Lyons (Labor) 34.7%, Andrew Nikolic (Liberal) 48.9%, Greens 9.4%. Two party preferred: 54.0%-46.0% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 50.6%, Abbott 49.4%. Geoff Lyons: 25.6%-39.8%-30.3% (favourable-neutral-unfavourable). Andrew Nikolic: 43.3%-24.0%-24.6%.

Braddon (Labor 7.5%): Sid Sidebottom (Labor) 34.6%, Brett Whiteley (Liberal) 51.3%, Greens 7.4%. Two party preferred: 56.8%-43.2% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 51.2%, Abbott 48.8%. Sid Sidebottom: 27.4%-37.8%-33.1%. Brett Whiteley: 42.7%-30.5%-25.3%.

Lyons (Labor 12.3%): Dick Adams (Labor) 32.3%, Eric Hutchison (Liberal) 46.8%, Greens 10.2%. Two party preferred: 54.4%-45.6% to Liberal. Rudd 50.7%, Abbott 49.3%. Dick Adams: 26.8%-34.3%-35.7%. Eric Hutchison: 36.8%-29.3%-18.2%.

UPDATE 3: More numbers from last night’s Galaxy poll. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-34, but Malcolm Turnbull holds a 46-38 lead over Rudd.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50. The poll finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue, with Labor on 25% (up eight on mid-June), the Coalition on 26% (down 12) and the Greens on 6% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and there are further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,216 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 5 of 45
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  1. jv

    I was talking polling results not policy.

    I think Malcolm Fraser proved how you do it. Whitlam agreed.

    The problem nowadays is we have an extremist with media backing fanning the sails of the race to the bottom.

    I am hoping after Abbott loses that the LNP will move back towards the liberal in Liberal

  2. [ The Greens want to provide refuge in Australia for all asylum seekers, with no limits. This is akin to an Open Door policy. ]

    They are extremists and seen as such by voters.

    Milne, SHY. No way.

  3. Yeah the asylum seeker issue has now effectively been neutralised. That’s why the Coalition was out trying to turn it into a new military issue last week whereas Rudd had turned it into a diplomatic issue the week before, since most voters trust Rudd to be a better diplomat than Abbott.

    But now Labor needs to move on and talk about other issues because they won’t win an election where everyone is thinking about asylum seekers on election day.

  4. I only hope that PMKR keeps hounding and challenging Rabbott to a public debate on all the top issues.

    I believe that the Sloganmans reluctance to accept the challenge will be one of the best weapons Labor has going into the campaign.

    We in here know he is gutless and the public is slowly but surely realising it too I believe.

  7. Let’s hope we get another minority government. This one has been the best parliament since 1975. The minority agreements were superb. A taste of Denmark. Everything transparent. Tears in the house. Struggles with the issues. Multi-party committees. And the right-wing Labor daleks who hated it sidelined at the end. Bring it on.

  12. Gillard promised an election on September 14th and Rudd should keep that promise to the Australian people.

    Dragging this on endlessly is causing great distress to the Australian people

  14. JV # 190

    is this discrimination on means of arrival??

    Which appears where in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, remind me? Oh yeah, nowhere. Get real.

  15. Note in comparing Newspoll with Galaxy on the AS question – the way the questions are asked is probably not similar. Seems Galaxy just asked Rudd/Abbott but Newspoll asked Rudd/Abbott/other/none.

    So you get a lot of Greens voters who think their party’s policy rocks but prefer Rudd’s to Abbott’s. In this poll they get added to Rudd’s score; in Newspoll they didn’t.

    The Newspoll comparison may have been unflattering to Labor.

  16. [ Multi-party committees. And the right-wing Labor daleks who hated it sidelined at the end. Bring it on.]
    You mean multi-party committees that Tony Abbott refused to let Liberal MPs sit on!?

    Do you know that Abbott intervened and stopped Liberal MPs Mal Washer, Russel Broadbent and Judy Moylan from attending the last few meetings of the bipartisan group that formed to work out a deal on asylum seekers? Tony Crook kept attending because he basically told Abbott to get lost.

  19. AussieAchmed

    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    Sean – explain what is wrong with the Australian economy.

    Convince me, see if you can get me to agree and I’ll vote Liberal.
    ——————————————-

    Sean…SEAN…where are you?

    Avoiding answering?
    Unable to substantiate your claims?

    I deduce from your refusal to respond you were lying about the economy?

    Or, and this is the one that has me all upset and crying in my bundy…you don’t want my vote….:-(

  22. A hung Parliament with Adam Bandt with the balance of power.

    One can dream, oh how the right of the ALP and the conservatives would completely unhinge!

  23. guytaur @ 201

    Agree with your history. If parties agree and govt just leads on the right thing to do, redneck issues are kept in the pubs of Lindsay.

  24. [Sean

    What are the LNP scared of that they want election NOW!!??]
    Well clearly they are worried that Rudd is making Abbott look even more unpopular.

  25. Sean Tisme@212


    Gillard promised an election on September 14th and Rudd should keep that promise to the Australian people.

    Cry me a river…..

    but but but…

    [ Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Now we are meant to be impressed by a sugar hit 50% poll for
    Rudd during his honeymoon. Wow, so impressive!

    Give it time… give it time..]

    Very true. You just never know.

    Tick…tick…tick…

  29. MM 214 JV 190
    There’s a huge difference between boat arrivals and plane arrivals.
    Many of the asylum seekers on boats do not have passports and, as such, request assessment to decide if they are genuine refugees. They are often more difficult and time consuming to process. They actually pay a lot more than the air arrival but the air arrival (with passport) may make them more likely to be rejected. Hence for them boat is better as they may be able to avoid scrutiny and be safe in the knowledge of legal appeals helping them.

    The airport arrivals have to have a passport to board a plane for Australia (as well as an onward or return ticket) and should have obtained a Vistor Visa. They can request asylum at the airport and then likewise wait for assessment of genuine refugee status. For these arrivals it’s a much more clear cut initial process.

  31. Marrickville Mauler
    [Which appears where in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, remind me? Oh yeah, nowhere. Get real.]

    It’s about the Convention. That is based on the fact we are all human beings and deserve to be treated with respect. A breach of the Convention is a breach of the Convention. How can mode of arrival negate Article 1 on fear of persecution? Made-up barriers based on boat arrivals versus air arrivals for asylum seekers that deny the right to seek refuge do not circumvent the Convention.

    It is clear discrimination based on racism and the fears of xenophobes.

  33. ShowsOn

    Yeah, even on carbon it was really a multi-party committee of the Greens and Garnaut in the background. The Libs were absent and the then Labor leadership wanted to be.

  34. 209

    The equalisation in the polls removes the chance of the Greens loosing the balance of power in the Senate. The Greens will not now loose Ludlam in WA and will probably pick up Senate seats in Victoria and Queensland. I do not know about NSW and SA is complicated with Senator X standing again, remembering that it was Senator X`s taking about half a quota from the ALP (and he also about another half a quote from the Libs) that got SHY into the Senate in the first place.

    We shall have to see about Bandt in Melbourne and whether or not there is another hung Parliament.

  35. Howard promised an ETS in 2007 election.

    What happened to the Liberal position on an ETS?

    Abbott then back stabbed Turnbull who was in favour of an ETS

    Abbott smashed Howards promise and took the Liberals down a very different path.

  37. [It’s about the Convention. That is based on the fact we are all human beings and deserve to be treated with respect.]
    What about these people from Syria in a massive refugee camp in Jordan. Should they be treated with respect too?

  39. [ShowsOn

    Yeah, even on carbon it was really a multi-party committee of the Greens and Garnaut in the background. The Libs were absent and the then Labor leadership wanted to be.]
    Gillard did invite Tony Abbott to nominate 2 Coalition MPs to the multi-party climate committee but he refused to let any MPs nominate or attend the meetings. Oakeshott and Windsor agreed to join the committee.

    Tony Abbott shouldn’t be elected Prime Minister for that act alone. It clearly demonstrated that he was more interested in playing politics rather than contributing to good policy for the benefit of the country.

  41. sean

    you are causing great distress to me

    i thought there was a bit more commonsense until i read you

    the carer of the australian public – gives us a break – you-know-wuch-leader-you-love-who-caused-all-the-distress-to-the public. you are a flea without bite

  42. [Howard promised an ETS in 2007 election.

    What happened to the Liberal position on an ETS?

    Abbott then back stabbed Turnbull who was in favour of an ETS

    Abbott smashed Howards promise and took the Liberals down a very different path.]
    And let’s not forget that Turnbull actually got the CPRS agreement through the shadow cabinet AND the Coalition partyroom, even with all the Nats voting against it!

    Tony Abbott’s leadership was basically based on refusing to accept the decision of the partyroom!

  44. ShowsOn

    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Gillard did invite Tony Abbott to nominate 2 Coalition MPs to the multi-party climate committee but he refused to let any MPs nominate or attend the meetings. Oakeshott and Windsor agreed to join the committee.

    Tony Abbott shouldn’t be elected Prime Minister for that act alone. It clearly demonstrated that he was more interested in playing politics rather than contributing to good policy for the benefit of the country.
    ——————————————————

    yep

  45. If asylum seekers coming by air were travelling in rusted out old planes with regular crashes and subsequent loss of life I’m sure there would be a similar aim to stop the planes.

    It’s about trying to stop the boats. The LNP are the ones who’ve added all the other criticisms of “boat people” for pure political gain. Dirty politics!

  47. davidwh@243


    The others vote is disappearing fast which can’t be good for KAP and PUP.

    Both have become basically invisible.

    Maybe more profile in Qld.

    Clive really said he was running for PM – Didn’t he ?

  49. What do you call a piece of shit who pretends to care about the people while promoting the corporate agenda?

    Leader of the Opposition

  50. jv 238

    No dictionary I see!

    The differences I stated are clearly written in the Federal Parliament report on asylum seekers. Read before you comment, please.

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