Galaxy: 50-50

Contrary to talk of stalled momentum for Kevin Rudd after a relatively weak Newspoll, a new Galaxy poll has Labor’s primary vote with a four in front and a dead heat on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has two-party preferred at 50-50, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 44% for the Coalition. This compares with a 51-49 lead for the Coalition at the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor up two on the primary vote and the Coalition steady. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J fills the blanks: “Greens Primary for this poll is 9. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers? Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change? Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31 Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future? Rudd 46, Abbott 36. July 23-25. 1015 sample.

We also have the Launceston Examiner reporting ReachTEL polls of 600 respondents in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons show the Liberals continuing to lead in all three, although details provided in the article are sketchy.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham has kindly passed on results of the ReachTEL poll of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. The polls were conducted on Thursday from respective sample sizes are 626, 659 and 617, for margins of error of around 4%. The results unusually feature personal ratings for both the Labor incumbents and Liberal candidates, which show a) implausibly high recognition ratings for all concerned (only 1.5% of Braddon respondents had never heard of their Liberal candidate, former state MP Brett Whiteley), b) surprisingly weak results for the incumbents, and c) remarkable uniformity from electorate to the next.

Bass (Labor 6.7%): Geoff Lyons (Labor) 34.7%, Andrew Nikolic (Liberal) 48.9%, Greens 9.4%. Two party preferred: 54.0%-46.0% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 50.6%, Abbott 49.4%. Geoff Lyons: 25.6%-39.8%-30.3% (favourable-neutral-unfavourable). Andrew Nikolic: 43.3%-24.0%-24.6%.

Braddon (Labor 7.5%): Sid Sidebottom (Labor) 34.6%, Brett Whiteley (Liberal) 51.3%, Greens 7.4%. Two party preferred: 56.8%-43.2% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 51.2%, Abbott 48.8%. Sid Sidebottom: 27.4%-37.8%-33.1%. Brett Whiteley: 42.7%-30.5%-25.3%.

Lyons (Labor 12.3%): Dick Adams (Labor) 32.3%, Eric Hutchison (Liberal) 46.8%, Greens 10.2%. Two party preferred: 54.4%-45.6% to Liberal. Rudd 50.7%, Abbott 49.3%. Dick Adams: 26.8%-34.3%-35.7%. Eric Hutchison: 36.8%-29.3%-18.2%.

UPDATE 3: More numbers from last night’s Galaxy poll. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-34, but Malcolm Turnbull holds a 46-38 lead over Rudd.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50. The poll finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue, with Labor on 25% (up eight on mid-June), the Coalition on 26% (down 12) and the Greens on 6% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and there are further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,216 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 4 of 45
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  1. Psephos

    To me winning the campaign is winning those very voters mowing their lawns.

    They are the ones that get influenced by the “fee”l of things.

  2. I was under the impression that PVO said the poll was fascinating, not ‘gamechanger’.

    It may be ‘fascinating’ to PvO because the result doesn’t reflect the Newspoll result or because the Galaxy Poll is later in the cycle and the ‘boats’ issue has been somewhat neutralized.

  6. Take it all back everyone, those AS questions are gamechanging!

    Does anyone know what the highest 2PP vote was for a incumbent government at the start of election cycle, who lost the election?

  8. sohar I wondered that and it was anne summers who ask him

    did he think she was the only one looking,,

    its been retweeted a couple of times I just happened to be in the spot at the time,

    i did read too a couple of them saying its stalled

    well what’s stalled the base vote now has 40 in front of it MAGUIRE SAID IT WOULD
    go bob

  11. guytaur@159

    KB

    What is Galaxy House effect 1 or 2 points to Liberals or Labor?

    Used to be about a point to Coalition but lately nothing much IMO. Neutral but very “underdispersed” (doesn’t move much).

  13. If Rudd’s ‘no boat arrival will ever be settled in Australia’ wasn’t showing up as having destroyed the Lib’s boat advantage in their polling Abbott would never have felt the need to come up with his 3 star general 3 word slogan.

    It’s certainly looking like Rudd is going to go longer, but I fear this could backfire. He has Abbott where he needs him now.

  16. [Does Australia have any 4 star Generals and, if so, is one available?]

    The Chief of the Defence Force is the only 4 star rank.

  17. YeeHaa!! Ride ’em Tony!

    Check these photos out, how can any of you po-faced commies not possibly vote for this Man’s Man?

    [SAVIOURS traditionally arrive on white steeds – and Tony Abbott is hoping to at least look the part with a demonstration of equestrian skills in far north Queensland.

    The politician’s famous rolling gait has prompted suggestions he walks like an accomplished horseman, and he looked at home in the saddle, but managed to resist any temptation to go shirtless, unlike intrepid Russian president Vladimir Putin’s recent horseback outing.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/tony-abbott-saddles-up-for-battle-in-far-north-queensland/story-fni0cx12-1226686857317

  18. guytaur

    there will a lot of lawn clippings coming rudd’s way … people are still watching and waiting, yet to reel the feel

  19. So it’s Rudd 45 to Abbott 31 best to tackle climate change?

    That’s crap, everyone would know that Abbott doesn’t believe in climate change, surely?

    The figures compare very similar with which leader has best vision for future.

    That’s bad for Abbott 😎

  20. 150

    Geoffrey

    all liberals are the same the even all wear matching ties

    it only

    their suits that are different.\\

    even liberal woman look the same if u take a good look

  22. Phil the Greek (HRH Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh to his friends) is a ceremonial Field Marshall of the Australian Army. Maybe Abbott could call him up?

  23. where is political satire when you need it? on tele? has abbott been protected the big bully. i hope kev pokes his eyes and pulls his dick the little unaustralian thug

  24. no kev in your wrong

    it was anne summers twitter feed
    she ask pvo to share if he would a preview of the galaxy poll i saw the conversation i follow them both
    so does the other man, he tweeted and so did i

  27. Anne Summers‏@SummersAnne
    @vanOnselenP Can you share preview of Galaxy poll?

    Image will appear as a link

    Chris Ogilvie ‏@ChrisOgilvieSnr 4h
    @SummersAnne @vanOnselenP #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (+4) L/NP 47 (-4) Wow ★★★★ stars

    so i will show u again it was not chris

    ‏@4h
    @

    Details

    4h
    @ChrisOgilvieSnr @SummersAnne @vanOnselenP is that real pls

    Details

    © 2013 Twitter
    About
    Help

  28. @centre

    Spoke a little too soon there I’m thinking! 9% Galaxy 10% Newspoll. That drop away just isn’t going to happen, if anything will edge up slightly.

    @psephos

    I certainly do not share the view that Gillard one the campaign, I think the Coalition won it convincingly. The 2010 ALP campaign lurched from one disaster to the next. Policies such as the citizens assembly and cash for clunkers were not well received. The East Timor “solution” fell apart throughout the campaign, as it became apparent that the East Timor Government had not been consulted, and that the deal would not be approved. The leaks did not help matters. Then, to top it off, there was the plain ridiculous “real Julia Gillard” moment, which was rightly ridiculed. I am expecting a far more professional Labor campaign this time.

  32. So slightly more voters prefer giving refugees tropical psychological ulcers & malaria over a 3 star general shooting them back to Indonesia? Deep.

  35. gillard would have been eaten alive in an election campaign … sorry she would have imploded. this is nothing to do with polls or rudd or however well she might have been going … she was target for major mud slinging and public would not protect her …

  36. On boats

    I suspect that this turn around actually runs deeper than just the PNG announcement. One of the first things Rudd was able to do on his return, which had not previously been done effectively, was to expose the policy of turning boats around for the fraud it is. Some were critical of Rudd’s diplomatic conflict remarks, but I believe those comments cut through and placed doubts in people’s minds as to whether turn back was actually possible or wise.

  38. JV

    Yeah it is. Voters know its a Labor or Liberal government.

    They are choosing the more humane and sensible alternative out of the two. Remembering for most voters they want news about boats off their television news

  40. Except there is no mention of irregular air arrivals? What, is this discrimination on means of arrival?? Surely not? Aren’t we the country of the fair go?

  41. I’m surprised Rabbott scored so high on climate change but am blown away with the ‘vision’ result.

    36, really?

    I’ve never heard anything visionary from Rabbott.

  42. rummel

    protest voters clap with one hand – voting on principle alone – writing comments on ballot paper (who reads them – this is one finger clapping)

  43. @jv

    Yes, a very sad state of affairs. But when you have two political parties, plus the media, creating a perception that Australia is being swamped, terms like invasion and terrorism are used in the debate, then sadly this is the end result.

    I suspect the next national apology our Parliament gives will be to those we locked in mental illness factories otherwise known as detention centres, sent to PNG where who knows what will happen to them, etc etc etc. That is why it is important to keep up the fight, and not to do as some suggest and just join the ALP and Coalition in the shameful race to the bottom.

  44. Guytaur
    [Remembering for most voters they want news about boats off their television news]

    Is such an attitude worth adopting?

  45. [geoffrey
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK
    sproket

    wgere did you get open door term from? is this greens own? galaxy question? your own?]

    The Greens want to provide refuge in Australia for all asylum seekers, with no limits. This is akin to an Open Door policy.

    When pushed, they will shift the burden onto transit countries like Indonesia and Malaysia to become magnets for asylum seekers by instructing them to host regional centres.

    I have sympathy with the humanitarian concern shown by the Greens, but no time whatsover for their Polyanna solutions.

  46. [Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers?

    Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38]

    Wow

  47. [guytaur
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink
    KB
    What is Galaxy House effect 1 or 2 points to Liberals or Labor]

    Mark the ballot [see KB’s site for link] has the last 6 Galaxy polls house effect, prior to this one, with oldest at the bottom, as:

    .42% to COAL
    .59% to COAL
    .55% to ALP
    .53% to ALP
    .60% to ALP
    .71% to ALP

  48. [I think it’s pretty clear that the electorate is exactly evenly divided, with all polls since Rudd’s return straddling 50/50 and the outliers cancelling each other out.

    So everyone hates the hung parliament, but we are well set to get another one, with Bandt, Wilkie and Katter holding the balance. Oh joy.]
    Well if the result is 50/50 but that includes a 5% 2pp swing to Labor in QLD then Labor will more than likely form a small majority government.

    This election could have seats going all over the place.

  49. @Dee

    That 36 percent would represent a lot of rusted on Liberal voters. Abbott is behind on all key questions, including his pet issue. That is not a good place to be going in to a campaign, especially when he has been around for three and a half years, so it is not as though he is an unknown quantity.

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