Galaxy: 50-50

Contrary to talk of stalled momentum for Kevin Rudd after a relatively weak Newspoll, a new Galaxy poll has Labor’s primary vote with a four in front and a dead heat on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has two-party preferred at 50-50, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 44% for the Coalition. This compares with a 51-49 lead for the Coalition at the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor up two on the primary vote and the Coalition steady. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J fills the blanks: “Greens Primary for this poll is 9. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers? Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change? Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31 Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future? Rudd 46, Abbott 36. July 23-25. 1015 sample.

We also have the Launceston Examiner reporting ReachTEL polls of 600 respondents in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons show the Liberals continuing to lead in all three, although details provided in the article are sketchy.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham has kindly passed on results of the ReachTEL poll of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. The polls were conducted on Thursday from respective sample sizes are 626, 659 and 617, for margins of error of around 4%. The results unusually feature personal ratings for both the Labor incumbents and Liberal candidates, which show a) implausibly high recognition ratings for all concerned (only 1.5% of Braddon respondents had never heard of their Liberal candidate, former state MP Brett Whiteley), b) surprisingly weak results for the incumbents, and c) remarkable uniformity from electorate to the next.

Bass (Labor 6.7%): Geoff Lyons (Labor) 34.7%, Andrew Nikolic (Liberal) 48.9%, Greens 9.4%. Two party preferred: 54.0%-46.0% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 50.6%, Abbott 49.4%. Geoff Lyons: 25.6%-39.8%-30.3% (favourable-neutral-unfavourable). Andrew Nikolic: 43.3%-24.0%-24.6%.

Braddon (Labor 7.5%): Sid Sidebottom (Labor) 34.6%, Brett Whiteley (Liberal) 51.3%, Greens 7.4%. Two party preferred: 56.8%-43.2% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 51.2%, Abbott 48.8%. Sid Sidebottom: 27.4%-37.8%-33.1%. Brett Whiteley: 42.7%-30.5%-25.3%.

Lyons (Labor 12.3%): Dick Adams (Labor) 32.3%, Eric Hutchison (Liberal) 46.8%, Greens 10.2%. Two party preferred: 54.4%-45.6% to Liberal. Rudd 50.7%, Abbott 49.3%. Dick Adams: 26.8%-34.3%-35.7%. Eric Hutchison: 36.8%-29.3%-18.2%.

UPDATE 3: More numbers from last night’s Galaxy poll. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-34, but Malcolm Turnbull holds a 46-38 lead over Rudd.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50. The poll finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue, with Labor on 25% (up eight on mid-June), the Coalition on 26% (down 12) and the Greens on 6% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and there are further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,216 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 3 of 45
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  5. Right now Rudd does not have the luxury to be too choosy about journalists he engages with. He needs to go into hostile territory to regain ground lost from 2007. That’s why he’s talking to Bolt. That’s also why Gillard went on RW radio shows.

    People comfortably in front get to choose who they speak to and when they speak.

  6. Wow a PV of 40%! Rudd is doing rather well and watching posters like Sean and Mick77 eat their ‘peak Rudd’ hubris is just deeeeeelightful.

    Also glad TPP is still at 50/50 which forestalls reTurnbull.

    Oh! And the Greens here must be just ecstatic that their status as the perpetual opposition is being quickly cemented. How Pure they must feel.

  10. It could just be lion’s den stuff, I will concede to simulate some sort of even-handed consideration of Our Termite’s actions.

  11. fredex@96

    2PP
    Since their last poll Galaxy has shown a +1% swing to ALP.
    Since their last poll Essential has shown +1% swing to the ALP.
    Since their last poll ReachTel have shown a +1% swing to the ALP.
    Since their last poll Morgan has shown a swing of .5% to the ALP.
    Only Newspoll has not shown a swing to the ALP.

    In Galaxy and ReachTEL’s case this is because their previous poll was four weeks ago and in the first few days of Rudd polling the bounce was still growing. And in Essential’s case it’s because their poll is slow to respond.

    But there is absolutely no way Labor really lost 2 points or anything like it in that Newspoll fortnight.

  13. I hear the phrase “game changer” every few weeks. In my experience, unless it’s something like a change of leadership or some other massive news, the term is a load of shit.

  15. Carey Moore,

    [ I hope the election is delayed for as long as possible, just because it seems to give Sean the shits so much. ]

    👿

  16. I think it’s pretty clear that the electorate is exactly evenly divided, with all polls since Rudd’s return straddling 50/50 and the outliers cancelling each other out.

    So everyone hates the hung parliament, but we are well set to get another one, with Bandt, Wilkie and Katter holding the balance. Oh joy.

  20. @Glory

    Just speculating of course, but maybe it has Labor best to handle the issue? Large endorsement for the PNG solution?

    Re Rudd going on Bolt

    I would not be overly worried. Bolt will ask the usual questions one would expect of a far right shock jock, but I suspect Rudd will bat them away sufficiently. His appearance there will change very little barring a major gaf. What he is doing is contrasting himself with Abbott, who avoids difficult interviews like the plague.

  22. Psephos

    “So everyone hates the hung parliament, but we are well set to get another one, with Bandt, Wilkie and Katter holding the balance. Oh joy.”

    Another hung parliament situation would be just HILARIOUS to watch. Can you imagine Abbott going into negotiations with a straight face after the last three years?

  23. well there u go,,,, I can still find the other one is stil

    on the site,, anne summers and pvo , I don’t that that very professional to play games like
    that what your opinion mr bowe

  24. I hope the election is delayed for as long as possible, just because it seems to give Sean the shits so much.

    I enjoy Sean’s posts too………. He does add a lot of entertainment to this blog.

  25. Now I’ve seen everything – that dude you knew ‏@Deadly_Thoughts 42s
    Oh now I know theyre panicking the trolls are rubbishing bolt as an ALP supporter #auspol

  26. 95

    The interview with Sattler had little to do with Gillard loosing her job but everything to do with Sattler loosing his. I would be perfectly happy for the ALP to win and Rudd loose his seat. He deserves it.

  28. So everyone hates the hung parliament, but we are well set to get another one, with Bandt, Wilkie and Katter holding the balance. Oh joy.

    Well, I enjoyed the current hung parliament because of how it was managed and because of the ‘sanity’ of Windsor and Oakeshott. However, I agree, a hung parliament with Bandt, Wilkie and Katter holding the balance…

  31. I do not think it will be a hung parliament. That is because I think its still the campaign that is going to be the difference.

    All I have seen from PMKR since regaining the role only confirms this.

  32. puff

    you are crazy to call rudd as you do when the first and major whiteanting of the labor party was done by gillard. has it ever dawned on you that she was a little more ambitious and destabilising and disloyal and impossible to work with (sounds familiar) as deputy than you credit

    you are like greens, all protest and no answer

  33. [So everyone hates the hung parliament, but we are well set to get another one, with Bandt, Wilkie and Katter holding the balance. Oh joy.]

    So let’s have a Turnbull led Lib party just to shake things up.

  34. [Kevin Bonham

    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 10:08 pm

    But there is absolutely no way Labor really lost 2 points or anything like it in that Newspoll fortnight.]

    That was my point.

  35. there its still there so u don’t I it imagination.

    Mr bowe

    Chris Ogilvie ‏@ChrisOgilvieSnr 4h
    @SummersAnne @vanOnselenP #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (+4) L/NP 47 (-4) Wow ★★★★ stars

    Details Reply
    Retweeted

    Favorited

    More

    John MorganchrispydogJackie DickensonDavid CarterVan BadhamDenyse Gibbs

    as ask u do u think its profession to be playing games

  37. geoffrey
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 10:21 pm | Permalink
    puff

    you are crazy to call rudd as you do when the first and major whiteanting of the labor party was done by gillard. has it ever dawned on you that she was a little more ambitious and destabilising and disloyal and impossible to work with (sounds familiar) as deputy than
    ==================================================

    HERE HERE HERE

    PUFF ARE YOU now a white ant too

    think about it

  38. Sitting on 50/50 just before an election after the last three years of antics must be a huge dissapointment for the LNP. The pressure must be building up behind the scenes.

    If people can’t bring themselves to vote for the Coalition over Labor now, there’s less chance of that happening on election day.

  39. So let’s have a Turnbull led Lib party just to shake things up.

    I am still trying to understand the difference between a Liberal Party without any policies led by Tony Abbott and a Liberal Party without any policies led by Malcolm Turnbull (other than one is considered to have a prettier face than the other).

  40. My Say’s 53/47 might well be the correct poll numbers and the 50/50 the amended version for public consumption. Perhaps PVO let the cat out of the bag.

  41. pithicus@117

    so kevin @111 newspoll rogue?

    Certainly not. A rogue is a poll that is out by more than its margin of error. Newspoll was probably about 1.7 points out but its margin of error is about 3.

  43. my say@135

    there its still there so u don’t I it imagination.

    Mr bowe

    Chris Ogilvie ‏@ChrisOgilvieSnr 4h
    @SummersAnne @vanOnselenP #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (+4) L/NP 47 (-4) Wow ★★★★ stars

    Details Reply
    Retweeted

    Favorited

    More

    John MorganchrispydogJackie DickensonDavid CarterVan BadhamDenyse Gibbs

    as ask u do u think its profession to be playing games

    Ogilvie was just being silly posting a wishful-thinking version of the result in a form which caused people to think it was real.

  45. I agree Rudd will “win the campaign” against Abbott, but so did Gillard in most people’s opinions. I don’t think “winning the campaign” actually makes much difference to election outcomes. Scoring the campaign is an elite spectator sport. The people who actually decide Australian elections are the most politically disengaged 20% of the electorate, who will not see the debates, do not watch Sky News or Insiders, and will not be reading commentaries in The Age. They will be mowing their lawns.

  48. Greens Primary for this poll is 9.

    Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers?

    Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38

    Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change?

    Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31

    Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future?

    Rudd 46, Abbott 36

    July 23-25. 1015 sample.

  49. I am hoping for a hung Parliament with Rudd having to be nice to Independents, as it would be a nice handbrake on him. And it would be one up-the-nose for the Libs: a win-win situation really.

    Rudd’s appearance on the Bolt show could be good for him as long as he smiles and doesn’t get angry or pissed off. Laugh a lot Kevin, and use phrases like “you can say that Andrew, but what we are doing is…..” and be positive and smile do your Grandpa routine. Its a comedy show in the vaudeville tradition after all.

  50. will everyone please shutup about turnbull … he is a skin deep reformer who has spoken nonsense about nbn and internet, has a very dodgy business past. mishandled the republican debate, supported the wretched tactics of abbott, and is a capitalist through and through. why is that interesting or subject of hope?

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