Galaxy: 50-50

Contrary to talk of stalled momentum for Kevin Rudd after a relatively weak Newspoll, a new Galaxy poll has Labor’s primary vote with a four in front and a dead heat on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has two-party preferred at 50-50, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 44% for the Coalition. This compares with a 51-49 lead for the Coalition at the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor up two on the primary vote and the Coalition steady. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J fills the blanks: “Greens Primary for this poll is 9. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers? Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change? Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31 Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future? Rudd 46, Abbott 36. July 23-25. 1015 sample.

We also have the Launceston Examiner reporting ReachTEL polls of 600 respondents in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons show the Liberals continuing to lead in all three, although details provided in the article are sketchy.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham has kindly passed on results of the ReachTEL poll of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. The polls were conducted on Thursday from respective sample sizes are 626, 659 and 617, for margins of error of around 4%. The results unusually feature personal ratings for both the Labor incumbents and Liberal candidates, which show a) implausibly high recognition ratings for all concerned (only 1.5% of Braddon respondents had never heard of their Liberal candidate, former state MP Brett Whiteley), b) surprisingly weak results for the incumbents, and c) remarkable uniformity from electorate to the next.

Bass (Labor 6.7%): Geoff Lyons (Labor) 34.7%, Andrew Nikolic (Liberal) 48.9%, Greens 9.4%. Two party preferred: 54.0%-46.0% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 50.6%, Abbott 49.4%. Geoff Lyons: 25.6%-39.8%-30.3% (favourable-neutral-unfavourable). Andrew Nikolic: 43.3%-24.0%-24.6%.

Braddon (Labor 7.5%): Sid Sidebottom (Labor) 34.6%, Brett Whiteley (Liberal) 51.3%, Greens 7.4%. Two party preferred: 56.8%-43.2% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 51.2%, Abbott 48.8%. Sid Sidebottom: 27.4%-37.8%-33.1%. Brett Whiteley: 42.7%-30.5%-25.3%.

Lyons (Labor 12.3%): Dick Adams (Labor) 32.3%, Eric Hutchison (Liberal) 46.8%, Greens 10.2%. Two party preferred: 54.4%-45.6% to Liberal. Rudd 50.7%, Abbott 49.3%. Dick Adams: 26.8%-34.3%-35.7%. Eric Hutchison: 36.8%-29.3%-18.2%.

UPDATE 3: More numbers from last night’s Galaxy poll. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-34, but Malcolm Turnbull holds a 46-38 lead over Rudd.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50. The poll finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue, with Labor on 25% (up eight on mid-June), the Coalition on 26% (down 12) and the Greens on 6% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and there are further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,216 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 37 of 45
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  2. Boerwar@1787

    bemused

    The conversation was spirited. There were various views. We listened to each other with respect. We agreed to differ.

    And we managed to do all that without any of your viciousness.

    In any case, I doubt that you would have enjoyed the evening because (a) you evidently can’t stand listening to any views other than your own and (b) you would have been kicked out on your arse for being a sarcastic verbal bully.

    Spirited?

    So they used lots of spirits to fortify themselves?

    As is clear from much I have written on PB, I am tolerant of different points of view and you would be well aware of that.

    What pisses me off is an arrogant, sanctimonious, know-all, bore.

    And your point b is also wrong.

  3. Tricot

    If I have a crusade it is for honesty, integrity, loyalty, respect for others and a committment to values, principles and policies. I regard these as a sort of bare minimum that should be acceptable for leaders in a democracy. Anything less and we are damaging our democracy.

    We are saying to the half million young people who can’t be bothered to register for a vote, you are right, we should not ask you to choose between two people who fail the integrity test.

    If you think that either Rudd or Abbott exemplifies all – or even some – of the above desirable qualities, by all means support them to your heart’s content.

    I would welcome a post from you in which you rate both Rudd and Abbott against those basic leadership benchmarks.

    Why leave it to me?

  4. Outsider

    You mean that years of dog whistling and MSM focus on boats has changed your views.

    We have not seen the media coverage of conditions in refugee camps of Indonesia to the same extent to name but one variable that would affect people’s views.

  5. [The White Australia Policy was racism. Was that a minority?]

    There were no polls to tell us, but I’ve no doubt that White Australia had majority support until at least the late 1940s.

  7. Outsider

    ‘I actually wish now that Rudd would accept the “tow back when safe to do so” position that Abbott has been banging on with. Not because I think it would work, but rather to clear the air.’

    Why would adopting a policy that no-one with the least skerrick of sanity thinks will work in practice, ‘clear the air’. This is another example of what our two rotten apples are doing to the quality of public policy debate.

    Vote 1 Informal Party.

  8. [I’m a huge fan of Gillard, but I’ll willingly be a ‘friend’ of Rudd or anybody else who might save the NBN from the clutches of the destructive liar abbott.]

    That’s how I see it too. I’ve always disliked Rudd, but whilst the Coalition maintain a policy of rolling back or stopping the NBN in any way I will not vote for them. It may be selfish or whatever, but I truly think it will make life better.

  9. ‘The Greens and their 15% of voters are killing Tassies economy.’

    That pesky democracy.
    If there was just some way of disenfranchising those bloody Liber..I mean Green supporters….

  10. [sprocket_
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 10:10 am | Permalink
    Starting to think that despite the #NewsCorpse and Opposition hysteria of election now, we will see Parliament return on 20 August.

    And what an interesting session it will be….]

    I agree sprocket. It occurred to me over the weekend that Rudd is now in the perfect position to wedge Abbott over the AS issue by putting up legislation to amend the Migration Act to head off any court challenges to the PNG policy (and in the process also enable the Malaysia solution to go ahead). If Abbott votes NO it belies his recent claim that he will do ANYTHING to stop the boats and he looks weak. If he votes for it Rudd looks like the one genuinely trying to do something about the problem and will be able to reintroduce the Malaysia option (which IMO would now have fairly widespread support, given that Abbott has already declared the AS issue a national emergency).

    Rudd might also consider wedging him on the carbon tax by introducing legislation needed to bring the ETS forward a year. If Abbott votes for it Rudd is the one who scrapped the carbon tax. If he votes against it his whole campaign about the tax will be seen as a sham .

    By introducing such legislation Rudd also makes a mockery of the Opposition claims that he will never follow through on his promises. Abbott will be seen as the one who is refusing to follow through.

    No doubt there would be some risks (including the fear that Turnbull might mount a successful challenge), but the overall payoff could be huge.

  11. Been a quiet day so far , labor is in a comfortable posiiton

    Newsltd/abbott coalition and pro coalition media can not stand it

  12. I think PMKR has to have parliament sit again.

    Deal with AS first then wedge Abbott on the Carbon “tax”.

    Doing the second will get the narrative off of boats. A thin edge of the wedge approach to getting the MSM to talk economy

  16. @Boewar/1803

    I wouldn’t vote for your party because your trying to convince me with no policies.

    What your doing is undermining Gillard policies to fit your view of honesty/loyalty/etc.

  17. Outsider
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 10:51 am | Permalink
    I’m not alone, I think, in really struggling with the AS debate. I also don’t think I’m alone in changing my views. The massive increase in numbers of AS coming by boat and the growing awareness of how the people smuggling trade really works has led to a shift in my opinion. I no longer accept that Australia can continue to accept all AS who make it to our shores.
    =============================================================

    I am with you once felt empathy now have none at all

    I how ever want to see the families in the camps waiting come quicker than they do

  20. ‘adrian
    Feel free to nominate close, intimate friends of Rudd.’

    I couldn’t care less. Why should I play your petty, vindictive games?

  24. adrian@1820

    ‘adrian
    Feel free to nominate close, intimate friends of Rudd.’

    I couldn’t care less. Why should I play your petty, vindictive games?

    Apart from which, who on PB is part of Rudd’s social circle and in a position to know his close friends.

    Just more Borewar bs.

  26. why would he bother with a child care

    his PPL is going to allow mums to stay home for 6

    months, then they will change their minds and want go back to work lol?

  28. MSM only doing boats.

    “@latikambourke: OL Tony Abbott – when I say I want to ‘stop the boats’ I want to ‘stop the deaths.’ #asylum”

  31. Because, Boar War, I am frustrated. I wish there was no war, or discrimination, or human suffering of any kind. I wish we had unlimited capacity as a country to accept all who wish to come here. But then there’s a real world out there. A rational debate would be focused on increasing our AS intake through regular channels, and a global effort to better look after AS wherever they may be. All 50 million of them. The struggle for us all, in our comfortable and safe homes, is to work out what is acceptable, and what is not. We can’t provide all the answers on our own, so what do we do? Yes, our view have been colored by years of dog whistling and so on. But I hope that most people who participate in this blog can see beyond that. You can see the angst of most people who write about this. What is not acceptable is a 1,000+ deaths at sea of people who are trying to make their way people. Desperate, sad people, who see no other options. Those deaths have become our problem. My lurch to the right on this issue is because I can’t see how a more humane intake program reduces the risk of those deaths. Not for the life of me. I wish I could, but I can’t.

  33. My Say

    [Dee but how strange,

    why would they not want MT

    I am glad but still curious]

    This article appears to be a warning shot at Turnbull.

  34. ‘@Boewar/1803

    I wouldn’t vote for your party because your trying to convince me with no policies.

    What your doing is undermining Gillard policies to fit your view of honesty/loyalty/etc.’

    I don’t know why people keep wanting to raise Gillard from the ashes of her political bonfire. I don’t frame any of my discussions in terms of Rudd v Gillard.

    So why do you put Gillard up as a straw woman?

  38. Dee

    ‘This election is shaping up to be the battle of the spouses.’

    Yep. I am sure that Abbott (has she adopted hubby’s name?) and Rein will add immeasurably to the quality of our democracy’s policy debate.

  39. One of the reasons there are more customers for people smugglers has been the Australian media promotion of the existence of those smugglers and telling the customers how many make it through

  40. White Australia was only partly racism but a significant part.

    To paraphrase Chris Watson during the Immigration Restriction Act 1901

    Labor recognises the industrial need to protect our workforce but more than this we reject ” the plague” of miscegenation.

    Wap was the defining national policy until at least the 40s but the public perception changed in the next 30 years and it went with barely a wimper

    About to get on a plane so can’t give a long answer but I think the sinhalese who came to Australia expecting a government job did not help the cause of AS.

  42. @BW/1834

    That’s your doing.

    Not my doing.

    I probably voting Labor this year, on the bases of the most of policies already in-place including NBN.

    By not voting for Labor your actually loosing the ability to keep those policies that both Rudd/Gillard implemented over the years.

  43. [“@latikambourke: OL Tony Abbott – when I say I want to ‘stop the boats’ I want to ‘stop the deaths.’ #asylum”]
    No. What he really means is “Stop the govenment!”

  45. [But then it got really interesting. Mitchell went on to say that the government is doing well in the polls (presumably he was referring to the Galaxy) and that Abbott is looking very ineffectual and unprimeministerial (if that’s a word). – as if he doesn’t know what to do. According to Mitchell they should take the leash off him and bring out attack dog Tony before it’s too late.]

    The criticism of Abbott by shockjock Mitchell is similar to Chris Smith last week. Smith’s callers had strong opinions on “ineffectual Abbott”.

  46. Funny how the spouses show similar physical looks. Therese is a bit roly-poly like Kev & Margie looks like Tony with more hair.

  47. [ According to Mitchell they should take the leash off him and bring out attack dog Tony before it’s too late.]

    I doubt Rabbott revealing his true character in ‘full’ would be beneficial for the Coalition.

  49. Abbott has a new line/lie, “increasing taxes on employer provided company cars”.

    The FBT is still the same Tony, what increase in tax?

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