Galaxy: 50-50

Contrary to talk of stalled momentum for Kevin Rudd after a relatively weak Newspoll, a new Galaxy poll has Labor’s primary vote with a four in front and a dead heat on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has two-party preferred at 50-50, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 44% for the Coalition. This compares with a 51-49 lead for the Coalition at the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor up two on the primary vote and the Coalition steady. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J fills the blanks: “Greens Primary for this poll is 9. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers? Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change? Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31 Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future? Rudd 46, Abbott 36. July 23-25. 1015 sample.

We also have the Launceston Examiner reporting ReachTEL polls of 600 respondents in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons show the Liberals continuing to lead in all three, although details provided in the article are sketchy.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham has kindly passed on results of the ReachTEL poll of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. The polls were conducted on Thursday from respective sample sizes are 626, 659 and 617, for margins of error of around 4%. The results unusually feature personal ratings for both the Labor incumbents and Liberal candidates, which show a) implausibly high recognition ratings for all concerned (only 1.5% of Braddon respondents had never heard of their Liberal candidate, former state MP Brett Whiteley), b) surprisingly weak results for the incumbents, and c) remarkable uniformity from electorate to the next.

Bass (Labor 6.7%): Geoff Lyons (Labor) 34.7%, Andrew Nikolic (Liberal) 48.9%, Greens 9.4%. Two party preferred: 54.0%-46.0% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 50.6%, Abbott 49.4%. Geoff Lyons: 25.6%-39.8%-30.3% (favourable-neutral-unfavourable). Andrew Nikolic: 43.3%-24.0%-24.6%.

Braddon (Labor 7.5%): Sid Sidebottom (Labor) 34.6%, Brett Whiteley (Liberal) 51.3%, Greens 7.4%. Two party preferred: 56.8%-43.2% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 51.2%, Abbott 48.8%. Sid Sidebottom: 27.4%-37.8%-33.1%. Brett Whiteley: 42.7%-30.5%-25.3%.

Lyons (Labor 12.3%): Dick Adams (Labor) 32.3%, Eric Hutchison (Liberal) 46.8%, Greens 10.2%. Two party preferred: 54.4%-45.6% to Liberal. Rudd 50.7%, Abbott 49.3%. Dick Adams: 26.8%-34.3%-35.7%. Eric Hutchison: 36.8%-29.3%-18.2%.

UPDATE 3: More numbers from last night’s Galaxy poll. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-34, but Malcolm Turnbull holds a 46-38 lead over Rudd.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50. The poll finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue, with Labor on 25% (up eight on mid-June), the Coalition on 26% (down 12) and the Greens on 6% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and there are further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,216 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 38 of 45
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  1. Sportsbet have got the markets back up for the close seats in NSW and there has been interesting movement to ALP.

    ALP now favourites in Banks and Reid, in both cases: ALP $1.75, LNP, $2.00.

    ALP and LNP tied in Robertson: $1.85 each.

    So ALP now behind only in 3 seats in NSW: Dobell, Greenway and Lindsay (ALP $2.00, LNP, $1.75 for Lindsay).

    Still waiting for the close QLD to come back up. Also Tassie seats off market as well.

  2. the #NewsCorpse shills admitting what we all know about their “election date speculation”.

    [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 8m Ok, having predicted every possible August election date, @simonbenson has moved into September.

    simon benson ‏@simonbenson 6m @mumbletwits And when I run out of September dates I’ll move onto October.]

  3. z

    ‘I probably voting Labor this year, on the bases of the most of policies already in-place including NBN.

    By not voting for Labor your actually loosing the ability to keep those policies that both Rudd/Gillard implemented over the years.’

    I can understand why around 94% of the electorate is actually going to vote for either Rudd or Abbott, 2PP.

    I will be in a tiny minority of between 1% and 2% of intentional inf*rm*l voters.

    I would add that the Informal Party should also lay some sort of claim to the 500,000 or so people who are eligble to be enrolled but can’t see the point.

    As I have posted many times before, these choices are a matter for personal judgements based on the best that we, as individuals, can bring to our voting.

  4. [“@latikambourke: OL Tony Abbott – when I say I want to ‘stop the boats’ I want to ‘stop the deaths.’ #asylum”]

    This is the latest co-ordinated stunt by Murdoch and Abbott. Today’s article in the Telegraph crying crocodile tears over an infant death set the scene for Abbott’s media appearance today.

  5. BW@1803

    I have been reading your posts for long enough to respect your intelligence and point of view.

    While your comments about the political leadership of this country are reasoned, I just don’t happen to accept that the response should be to offer a no-vote.

    It has taken ordinary people the length of recorded history to have their views at least given recognition through the voting process. I prefer not to walk away from this process.

    As far as Rudd and his friends are concerned I was not at your social function so I do not know who said what to whom, but I still question the assertion that Rudd has no friends.

    It is the type of comment – sweeping and generalised – which anyone seeking to demolish an argument would use to show the comment was meaningless.

  6. Benji

    Very interesting! I am in Banks and it previously looked gone for all money.

    Melham already has some signs up around the area he has put out two pamphlets to all electors and is doing outside meetings in shopping areas of a number of suburbs.

    David Coleman the Lib candidate has a huge billboard sign on top of a building at the corner of Stoney Creek Road and King Georges Road in Beverly Hills.

    This could get interesting and if it prevents bloody Paul Howes from being on a promise to be the Member for Banks at the election after this I will be rejoicing.

  7. bemused
    How would you rate Rudd against the following qualities:

    (1) honesty
    (2) integrity
    (3) loyalty
    (4) respect for others
    (5) committment to values
    (6) committment to principles
    (7) committment to policies.

  8. [One of the reasons there are more customers for people smugglers has been the Australian media promotion of the existence of those smugglers and telling the customers how many make it through]

    Not only the media but also Abbott and Morrison virtually inviting the people smugglers to send more boats.

    This makes Abbott’s comment today about “stopping the deaths” so incredibly hypocritical.

  9. Tricot

    ‘It has taken ordinary people the length of recorded history to have their views at least given recognition through the voting process. I prefer not to walk away from this process.’

    I agree completely. By writing in rather than numbering boxes I am expanding the democratic options available to citizens. We can show we don’t have to accept sub-standard prime ministers, and we should.

  10. http://sortius-is-a-geek.com/?p=3195#comment-7675

    “I get asked a lot about the Coalition’s costings & whether they add up. I can say with assuredness that they don’t add up, all one has to do is look at their policy. Half the columns in their spreadsheets don’t add up, none of their reference material is current, & there’s big gaps in regard to backhaul & the core infrastructure end of the NBN.”

  11. Boerwar@1861

    bemused
    How would you rate Rudd against the following qualities:

    (1) honesty
    (2) integrity
    (3) loyalty
    (4) respect for others
    (5) committment to values
    (6) committment to principles
    (7) committment to policies.

    Way ahead of you.

  12. BW@1859

    You posed this to me a little while back. Suffice to say I don’t know if Rudd has 1 or 100 friends and I certainly, in the wild West, would not have a clue who those friends might be – if they exist – which is likely.

    I guess as Rudd is on Facebook, he would have a friendship pool of tens of thousands. Who he would divulge the inner secrets to his soul to (his wife?) I do not know.

    Some studies from the UK and elsewhere seem to show the span of coping human interaction is somewhere between 140 and 150. I suspect the 150 say would be made up of clusters or rings. The first 1-5 close and intimate “friends” to the 145-150th cluster of “work friends” or whatever.

    Why is this important anyway?

  13. MTBW,

    Good to see Melham is confident would be a shame to lose him.

    Looks like Bradbury is working hard in Lindsay and I always thought Robertson would be safe as soon as Rudd returned.

    Looks like Dobell and Greenway will be a struggle. I think only Dobell would be a certain give away at this stage.

  14. bemused

    tsk, tsk. I am not running for prime minister, so I am, as I have repeatedly pointed out, completely and utterly irrelevant.

    Go on, have a go. Assess Prime Minister Rudd on a scale of one to ten against these criteria:

    (1) honesty
    (2) integrity
    (3) loyalty
    (4) respect for others
    (5) committment to values
    (6) committment to principles
    (7) committment to policies.

  15. Tricot

    Well, I didn’t say it was important that someone made the observation that Rudd does not have close, intimate friends. I mentioned it in passing.

    I assume from the outraged reaction of some on Bludger that it matters to them. IMHO, twitter and facebook friends don’t count as close, intimate friends. Apparently Rudd has been buying lists of twitter friends.

    We should bear in mind, too, Keating’s famous aphorism: ‘If you want a friend in politics, get yourself a dog.’

  16. Benji

    I think I am correct that John Murphy is the member for Reid – that is an electorate which very much like Banks has dramatically changed demographics so if he can pull that off it would be a great victory.

    I was very involved in the preselection for Banks way back in the eighties where we successfully got rid of John Mountford who was not only almost DLP but was a crashing bore to boot.

    Had twenty seven years in the Labor party and worked for three politicians so I am so pleased that we are back in the game.

  17. The danger is Thomson might split the labor vote in Dobell although now his solicitor is suing the ALP, his support among usual ALP voters may diminish.

  18. Boerwar@1868

    bemused

    tsk, tsk. I am not running for prime minister, so I am, as I have repeatedly pointed out, completely and utterly irrelevant.

    Go on, have a go. Assess Prime Minister Rudd on a scale of one to ten against these criteria:

    (1) honesty
    (2) integrity
    (3) loyalty
    (4) respect for others
    (5) committment to values
    (6) committment to principles
    (7) committment to policies.

    I rate him higher than his predecessor and his current opponent against all of those criteria.

  19. [About to get on a plane so can’t give a long answer but I think the sinhalese who came to Australia expecting a government job did not help the cause of AS.]
    I have experienced particular problems in my work with members of that group also. Sri Lanka is a very corrupt country, and the immigrants from there I have dealt with, whether arriving by boat or plane, turned out not to have the skills implied by their qualifications. Of the Sri Lankaqn engineers I have worked with, only one had skills adequate to do the work required.

    Even in a compassionate policy, I do not think there is any gain glossing over the likelihood of desperate people practicing fraud for personal gain. The boat migration debate would be less of a problem if the majority of boat migrants had useful skills. But most do not, regardless of anecdotes about particular individuals. This makes them a significant cost to our community.

    The earlier Pakistani blog view I posted is also relevant. There is a problem in Pakistan with violence from the Sunni majority against the Shi-ite minority. The solution is to work diplomatically with the Pakistan govenment and other agencies to solve the cause of the problem. We cannot seriously expect to resettle every Shia in Australia.

  20. bemused

    I can see that you are avoiding the issue by comparing with others. Why not trust yourself to give Rudd an honest score out of ten for each of the following? You could give reasons for your rating.

    For example, you could give Rudd a rating of 10 of 10 on the basis that he always tells the truth.

    Go on, have a go:

    (1) honesty
    (2) integrity
    (3) loyalty
    (4) respect for others
    (5) committment to values
    (6) committment to principles
    (7) committment to policies.

  21. Boerwar@1877

    bemused

    I can see that you are avoiding the issue by comparing with others. Why not trust yourself to give Rudd an honest score out of ten for each of the following? You could give reasons for your rating.

    For example, you could give Rudd a rating of 10 of 10 on the basis that he always tells the truth.

    Go on, have a go:

    (1) honesty
    (2) integrity
    (3) loyalty
    (4) respect for others
    (5) committment to values
    (6) committment to principles
    (7) committment to policies.

    I am not interested in playing your silly games.

    I have never been in a position to observe him or any other politician close enough to give meaningful scores against such a scale.

    The best I can do is relative ratings.

  22. [(1) honesty
    (2) integrity
    (3) loyalty
    (4) respect for others
    (5) committment to values
    (6) committment to principles
    (7) committment to policies.

    I rate him higher than his predecessor and his current opponent against all of those criteria.]

    Bwahahaha! Hilarious.

  23. What pisses me off is an arrogant, sanctimonious, know-all, bore by the name of bemused.

    Aha ! too close to your portrayed self-image obviousment.

    Bad look, bemoosed wedges hisself once more.

  24. I have also previously referred to problems with the 1951 UN Convention. Those who use it to justify their policy preference are using a very weak argument. the problem shave been discussed by many people. See
    http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0001/01RP05

    There is also a good scholarly article that examines the historical causes and data here. It was written prior to the massive jump in Australia in the past 12 months.
    http://cbe.anu.edu.au/research/papers/ceprdpapers/DP658.pdf

    Note some key points:
    – policy has been tightened in most countries since 1990
    – there is evidence that social conditions, not war etc, produce many of the applicants
    – there is an unemployment problem for low skilled migrants in many countries, notably France and Italy (and here).
    – only the prospect of not reaching the country or not getting a visa is a deterrent to the potential migrant.
    [More recently I examined the effects of policy on asylum flows from 56 source countries to 19 destination countries from 1997 to 2006 (Hatton, 2009). Here the policy index for each destination country was disaggregated into the three components noted above: those relating to access to the territory, those relating to the processing of asylum claims, and those relating to the living conditions of asylum seekers. The results suggested that only the first two of these had significant deterrent effects. The overall effect of the round of policy tightening between 2001 and 2006 was to reduce annual asylum applications to these 19 countries by 108,000, or about one third of the total decrease.]
    When you read through the facts, the 1951 convention is not a credible justification of policy. It is obsolete. The paper acknowledges that asylum policy is one of those “more work is needed” policy areas.

  25. bemused

    Go on, have a go:

    (1) honesty
    (2) integrity
    (3) loyalty
    (4) respect for others
    (5) committment to values
    (6) committment to principles
    (7) committment to policies.

    I am not interested in playing your silly games.’

    Shy of the truth are we?

  26. no repetition today, I’m thinkin’ ….

    …… bemused is his own sad reminder.

    “he (bemused) is a shallow vessel, and full.”

  27. For what it’s worth (probably not much), I rate Kevin Rudd behind Julia Gillard on each of Boerwar’s 7 points but ahead of both Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turbull on all of them. Abbott’s commitment to policies and principles reminds me of Groucho Marx – “These are my principles and if you don’t like them I have others”. It will make a huge difference to Australia who wins the coming election and I will be making a choice, even if on some counts it will be for the least worst.

  28. There is no position or policy to liberal that Labor will not adopt in the chase of votes and Abbott.

    Labor is now more Liberal the the JWH government.

  29. ‘What pisses me off is an arrogant, sanctimonious, know-all, bore by the name of bemused.’

    I believe that you have confused bemused with Borewar. It’s an easy mistake to make if you’re stupid.

  30. S777

    How would you rate Rudd’ 180 degrees on AGW action and his 180 degrees on asylum seekers in terms of committment to values, principles and policies?

  31. The month of July has nearly come and gone without any word on an election date, so 21st September (PM Rudd’s 56th Birthday) has firmed as the big day now that the window on 31st August has been closed.

    Carbon Pricing has been adroitly removed from the board as an election issue, and the abysmally cruel PNG solution has been promulgated as a means of neutralising Asylum Seekers as an election issue, with the recent polling now showing the Government ahead of the Opposition on who is perceived to be the better manager of this vexing policy matter. It seems that ‘Operation Sink The Boats’ launched with much fanfare of military bugles by the declining Abbott just last week is now dead in the water and listing badly to starboard with the voting public, and Abbott continues to slide in all measures of voter sentiment, although I note that the ever reliable Coalition mouthpiece, The Daily Telegraph, still attempts to furiously polish the Abbott turds by claiming that a 41% to 41% split rating on ‘who is best able to manage the economy’ can be somehow transmogrified into the screaming headline ‘Rudd fails to earn economic trust!’ …. breathtaking in its relentless, bulldog-like fixation with trying to convince the bogans and rednecks that make up its dwindling readership that black is, in fact, white – ‘lies, damn lies and statistics, indeed!’

    It will be a close run thing, but I am now more confident that the albatross of Abbott around the neck of the Coalition will be enough to outweigh the baggage Rudd is carrying from the ALP’s less than stellar management of the ship of state in the last 3 years.

  32. rummel

    In such a case, you should hurry the feck up and adjust your
    stance….. (for another try at consistency).

    meh.

  33. , sad people, who see no other options. Those deaths have become our problem. My lurch to the right on this issue is because I can’t see how a more humane intake program reduces the risk of those deaths. Not for the life of me. I wish I could, but I can’t
    ====================================================

    outsider

    AND Don’t worry your self, about it as I said there was a time when I attended rallies ,

    now I am like,, lurched to the right big time, it just came suddenly for me knowing babies and toddlers had drowned and money was chaging hands regarding smugglers.

    enough said, I think,

    we cannot fix all the problems in the world.

    the greens seem to think we can, but that impossible,

    but I am very very disappointed with BW telling people how to vote,

  34. ‘How would you rate Rudd’ 180 degrees on AGW action and his 180 degrees on asylum seekers in terms of committment to values, principles and policies?’

    I’d rate it 0 out of 10 if it was true, but it’s not true, so may I ask you why you waste your life posting ridiculous questions on a blog?

    You are on here almost constantly indulging your intense and irrational hatred of Rudd. GET A LIFE!

  35. socrates

    [- only the prospect of not reaching the country or not getting a visa is a deterrent to the potential migrant.]
    [When you read through the facts, the 1951 convention is not a credible justification of policy. It is obsolete. The paper acknowledges that asylum policy is one of those “more work is needed” policy areas.]

    It is definitely time for a review of the conditions.

  36. It’s hard to imagine that many of the leaders of any significant jurisdiction would pass muster on BW’s test. The capacity for playing fast and loose with principles, for double-dealing and all of the rest of it, while faking honour are precisely the things for which most jurisdictions select, bearing in mind that almost all (if not all) jurisdictions are configured to prioritise the interests of the major property holders over everyone else.

    These are, in short, mere consequences of boss class rule.

  37. [How would you rate Rudd’ 180 degrees on AGW action]

    Oh dear how would you rate the integrity and intelligence of someone spreading this silly mischaracterisation of what happened?

  38. [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 12:23 pm | PERMALINK
    S777

    How would you rate Rudd’ 180 degrees on AGW action and his 180 degrees on asylum seekers in terms of committment to values, principles and policies?]

    Rudd’s commitment to winning at all cost is 100%. The Howard years are now the Labor years, what a 180 degree change for labor.

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