Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.
Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.
Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.
BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.
The approach to budget management improved steadily under successive governments.
The 1975 Hayden budget was an admirable achievement amidst the chaos of the last days of the Whitlam Government.
The Fraser Government pioneered the idea of an Expenditure Review Committee (“Razor Gang”) to prepare the budget.
The Hawke Government fully introduced the concept that Ministers wanting to spend money on new things also needed to find “offsetting savings” to pay for them.
The Keating Government was somewhat spendthrift.
The Howard Governnent started well with a superbly harsh budget in 1996, and then became spendthrifts in a period of unprecedented real increases in government revenue. The extent to which they trained the populace to expect regular tax cuts and burgeoning levels of middle class welfare leaves a disgraceful legacy.
Since 2007, Labor has done pretty well on the expenditure side but has faced a growing revenue shortfall (and the States have had it even worse). They have wound back as much as they gave dared of Howard’s legacy of middle class welfare and unduly low taxes, but they face continuing challenges: challenges that Abbott and co don’t appear to be at all well-equipped to address.
Abbott seems truly to believe that he just needs to wave a magic wand and the days of surpluses under Howard will return. Hockey seems to know that this is what Abbott believes, and he looks extremely worried about that!!
ML
Given your well-based disgust and loathing of both Abbott and Rudd, I was just wondering whether you had decided to vote 1 Informal Party?
It was just reported on the news that there is revenue write-downs since the budget handed down in May.
Who was the one here saying things were going great guns because of the low Aussie dollar?
[Boerwar
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 6:51 pm | PERMALINK
ML
Given your well-based disgust and loathing of both Abbott and Rudd, I was just wondering whether you had decided to vote 1 Informal Party?]
Almost certainly.
I cannot see myself able to vote for either the ALP or LNP with their current leaders and their current plans.
Boerwar:
Yes, another bonus!
ST
Yep. Yet another revenue collapse. The excellent thing is that Abbott has promised to take us back to the Howard years.
Shd be truly good, no?
In fact, I was going to write in “Turnbull” but I might change my mind and write in “Ashton Agar” now….
[And the Libs still lie about the Labor debt. They always forget/ignore that around $40 billion debt was left by Fraser
…and where did the rest of it come from?]
Mod Lib you need to realise Aust has very little debt on world standards. As a percentage of GDP it is approx 10% nothing compared to US, Europe, Japan etc. Aust should actually have probably double the debt it has now with the money borrowed at record low interest rates using the AAA credit rating and the funds invested in infrastructure roads, urban rail and ports etc. those assets can then be flogged off to super funds. Aust debt is nothing which is why Rudd, Bowen are challenging Abbott, Hockey and Robb full bore on this lie. Rudd infact should come out with a nation building fund using govt debt, super fund money to announce new projects as there is massive infrastructure deficit in this country.
But will the Hawks beat the Bombers?
“But will the Hawks beat the Bombers?” – by 40+ points I’d say.
[Who was the one here saying things were going great guns because of the low Aussie dollar?]
I said that revenue expectations have increased, this is the view of people who know, not the news.
ML, “In fact, I was going to write in “Turnbull” but I might change my mind and write in “Ashton Agar” now….” – substituting one spinner for another, are you?
sohar
I hope your prediction is right. If it is wrong, I hope your prediction is on the low side.
My shameful secret is revealed: my great-grandfather, W J Butcher, was a Liberal state MP in WA, and in 1913 was a Senate candidate. How mortifying! Those awful people at the State Library of WA have provided the shocking evidence:
http://slwa.wordpress.com/2013/07/16/new-exhibition-majority-rules-2/
(scroll down to the campaign advert – better than the current Liberal efforts IMHO.)
AussieAchmed
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 5:14 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 4:23 pm | Permalink
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 3:54 pm | Permalink
The very very minor impact of the carbon price which has been compensated is as we have always said very small and negligible.
—————————————————-
So how much will Direct Action cost families?
=====================================================
waiting waiting waiting
Boerwar
OH, son and one daughter have gone to watch the Hawks hopefully thrash the Bombers tonight
Actually, the Greens could buy the whaling mother ship off the Japanese and do the asylum seekers run with it. Win win.
It might need a wash first, though.
BW, My Swans beat the Bombers by about 44 points so I’d expect the Hawks to do the same.
Mr O’Neill has accused the Opposition of misrepresenting a private briefing he gave them last week about the deal for political gain.
“I don’t particularly appreciate being misrepresented by others for their own political interests,” he told the ABC.
“I am disappointed with some of the debates put forward by some of the leaders in the Opposition in Australia, in particular statements I am alleged to have made to them.
“They are completely untrue.”
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has suggested the foreign aid money would not be spent responsibly and with accountability.
[Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 4m
Famous movie song first released 11 years before the movie. Later performed but not recorded by Bob Dylan. Covered by Carly Simon #emmoquiz]
????
Psephos,
What were your other three great-grandfathers up to?
victoria
I hope your OH&Son have absolutely the bestest night from first to last.
The Liberal Party (I deliberately did not say Coalition) have a history under Abbott of shooting the messenger.
There is not any group, organisation or country that they will not abuse if they dare oppose Liberal Policy.
Just saw an ad for ‘Godfreys’, interesetingly they were lampooning Abbotts negativity.
Psephos
Did you have a presentiment that it might just not be a good idea to keep digging?
daretotread@2982
So the Singapore model is not relevant to Australia and you would resort to ethnically based ‘incentives’. Yep, that would work well and encourage harmony. I don’t think.
So now you are advocating discrimination in employment? Well that will go down well.
So where have whole suburbs been taken over?
What industries have been taken over? Yes, a lot of taxi drivers are Indian but there are reasons for this and a lot are only doing it until they move on to something else. Taxi drivers are also notoriously low paid.
[Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 4m
Clue to #emmoquiz Carly Simon did not make the song famous. It already was. Her version not a hit.]
‘Just like a woman’?????
Not lampooning Abbott but taking the pi$$ out of Rudd
BREAKING …. HOWARD.
Howard denies Love Child Rumour.
“Baseless and Preposterous…..”
Mod Lib.
Poor little Barsket.
Yesiree Bob – did the Godfrey’s add involve a bowling ball or a bloke called Bill?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqJmPMPjICI
Dee:
I’ve no idea!
Slowly but Surely, Abbotts policies are being pulled apart.
Dee:
Can’t be that, as Just Like a Woman was recorded by Dylan.
Around 500,000 young voters will not be voting 1 Informal Party this coming election because they have not enrolled to vote.
Those who continue to think that our democracy is working fine with two leaders who are unfit to be prime minister might want to think about the million or so Australian voters who are either voting informal by accident or by design, or not at all. This figure do not include the hundreds of thousands who will vote Donkey 1, 2 and 3.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/young-voters-remain-disengaged-by-politics/story-e6frfku9-1226686514370
Mikehilliard, no, just proclaiming that Abbott shouldn’t be so negative, what with the low prices that they sell vacuum cleaners at
[izatso?
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 7:21 pm | PERMALINK
BREAKING …. HOWARD.
Howard denies Love Child Rumour.
“Baseless and Preposterous…..”
Mod Lib.
Poor little Barsket.]
You think Mod Lib is Howard’s lovechild?
I am just trying to get this right. Is it that Pegasus round-and-rounded some Bludgers; sameold, samolded some other Bludgers, treated some Bludgers to a bit of contempt for compassion deficit, handily out-compassioned all other Bludgers, and then buggered off after having ignored specific questions?
Can’t be “Just Like A Woman”
That’s on a Bob Dylan release, and he wrote it. (Blonde on Blonde, I think).
Am busting my brain, but can’t think. Dylan did quite a lot of covers in the early 1970s, on the albums “Self Portrait” and “Dylan” but this question says he performed but never released the song, so that narrows the field considerably.
[I am just trying to get this right…]
Yep , just about spot on.
‘course not you silly boy.
simply inference and divertion, proposition and subverting of what might or might not be the case.
Something very close to your raison d’etre.
Mod Lib is too decent to be related to Johnny.
alias:
What about As Time Goes By?
boers……
your the best person to nut that peg stuff, plainly.
….got him covered.
Yep, I reckon that’s it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_Time_Goes_By_%28song%29
Emmo says the winner announced at 8pm AEST.
Sohar.
that would be ‘descent’…….
as in ‘down-hill all the way’.
Your So Vain, that was about Dylan though I think.
AussieAchmed
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 7:00 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 5:14 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 4:23 pm | Permalink
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 3:54 pm | Permalink
The very very minor impact of the carbon price which has been compensated is as we have always said very small and negligible.
—————————————————-
So how much will Direct Action cost families?
=====================================================
waiting waiting waiting
[Your So Vain, that was about Dylan though I think.]
It was about Warren Beatty and written by Carly Simon in the early 70s
mh:
I thought it was about Mick JAgger?