Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a dead heat a fortnight ago, but there’s some encouragement for Labor in an extra question on asylum seeker policy.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, after a dead heat a fortnight ago. This comes off a three-point lift in the Coalition primary vote to 45%, with Labor down a point to 37% and the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, which blew out from 49-35 in his first poll to 53-31 in his second, is roughly back where it started at 50-34. Rudd’s approval ratings have followed a similar course over the three polls, this one showing approval down a point to 42% and disapproval up five to 41%, while Tony Abbott is steady at 35% and 56%. However, the Prime Minister can take solace in a finding that 26% now consider Labor the past party to deal with asylum seekers, up six since the question was last asked, with the Coalition plummeting 14 points to 33%.

Earlier today we had the regular weekly Morgan poll, which was little changed on last time with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There was actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size).

Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.

UPDATE: And here it is – Labor has pared back a point on two-party preferred to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 7% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are a semi-regular series on important election issues (“Australian jobs and protection of local industries” being up five points on a month ago), best party to handle them (across the board improvement for Labor in the wake of the leadership change), carbon pricing (45% support the move to an ETS with 29% opposed, while support for the “tax” scheme is down to 37% support with 48% opposed compared with 43% each in May – these being relatively supportive results on account of a question which explains it’s industries that pay the tax). Sixty-two per cent said they would support a referendum on recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution with only 16% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,143 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. Heard on the news that vets were trying to save the life of a cat (maybe dog) that had been fed a vegan diet. Sounds like something SHY would do.

  2. JV

    Once you have considered the net migration levels, what share is reasonable for AS and or refugees say compared with family reunion or skilled migrants?

    Once you have an idea of the refugee intake, how should these be selected -ie what are the grounds for refugee intake that gives highest priority eg is displaced from Syria higher or lower than being gay in Iran or displaced in Sudan.

  3. [1084
    guytaur

    briefly

    Regional is the solution. If transit countries end up as destination countries the load can be shared and no need for people to get on boats.]

    People have been talking about “regional” solutions for more than decade. There is no will on the part of our neighbours to solve a problem that they did not create but, from their point of view, we have caused for ourselves and for them.

    The brutal truth is the more you do to accommodate the flow of displaced persons, the bigger headaches you cause for yourself. The Malaysians and the Thais have their own problems, in any case, with a range of people fleeing Myanmar. In my opinion, these people deserve a lot more help than they receive.

    The problem is not at all with offering help to refugees. It is controlling the process so that there is some sense of order and so that criminal trafficking is excluded.

  4. DTT

    Numbers coming into the country are part of an immigration debate.

    Not one on how to treat asylum seekers. You are conflating two different issues.

    Remember a Green Candidate has made the point their arguments have never had open borders.

    So concentrate on the ramifications of alleged rape and assault

  5. Darn

    I think it’s about 250 nautical miles from Pelabuhan Ratu bay to CI. Time depends entirely on the boat and conditions. Most of those one-way boats would not be fast. At an average of say 5 knots it would take about 50 hours.

  6. William

    I was wondering if all this AS stuff that’s erupted since Rudd made the PNG announcement last Friday might have implications for the guesstimates that are made by the polling organisations in apportioning the preferences of the minor parties. As I understand it they mostly use the same percentages as occurred in the previous election (Morgan being the one exception) but with Greens supporters so furious at Rudd at the moment for his lurch to the right, the extent of their preferences going to Labor might now be a bit more problematical.

    What do you think?

  7. daretoread

    Our overall migrant intake is 190,000 for 2013-14. The boat arrivals are simply not a problem in terms of immigration levels.

    There is no discrimination on country of origin under the Convention.

  8. Guytaur

    That is sophistry. Already I think there were 8500 or so “boaties” this year exceeding our intake of refugees from elsewhere. As I say if we take 50,000 refugees (by whatever means boat plane etc) it means that in 30 years we have added 3.5 million to out population.

    If we assume that a further 50,000 come via other forms of immigration then we are looking at a further 7 million.

    Now there are many who favour a big Australia, however few of them are Greens. There seems to me to be particular conflict between eco-friendly actions and a generous immigration policy

  9. JV

    If we receive 50,000 AS (say a quota of 25,000 through approved channels and 25,000 irregulars) do you support a concurrent REDUCTION in other forms of immigration eg family reunion or skilled migrants or do you accept the addition to net population growth?

  10. Guytaur

    If we accept 25,000 per year people into the community but have no jobs for them and limited resources for housing etc, we may get very similar levels of rapes and violence – bored young men are always a risk. We have 5% unemployment.

    When we absorbed large numbers of European migrants we had unemployment of 1.5% or less. I recall the shock and outrage when unemployment hit 2% under Billy McMahon.

  11. Got polled by Reachtel tonight about Wakefield voting intentions Voting for Labor LNP Greens or other minor parties. Did I think Champion/Zorich were good average or poor. What issue did I think most important – only 5 choices and not even an “other”. Health Education Economy, Asylum seekers, forgot the fifth. Age and gender.

  12. JV

    Yes probably I do. Australia has a finite carrying capacity in terms of water etc- UNLESS we settle to far North.

    Now while I understand the “big Australia” arguments I think my love of forests and wild life mean that I would not like to see the water rich North turned into intense agricultural lands and or giant cities or ports. Perhaps this is selfish but I guess it is still the way I feel.

  13. 1114

    Back then unemployment was more heavily targeted and inflation a bit less targeted. With a little more government spending, we could get unemployment lower.

  14. Guytaur

    If there is truth in the allegations of rape etc in immigration camps it is a disgrace and the offenders should be prosecuted.

    The solution is of course to minimise the time ANYONE spends in camps. Ie speed up processing so people know their status quickly – they go home or they get resettled -three months maximum time.

    Sick of the nonsense about no papers etc. While those from darkest Africa may claim no paper status, it is absurd for anyone from the middle east, Pakistan or India to claim no papers. Jeepers you can use the telephone to get proof of identity – even DNA checks.

    An oppressed journalist from Iran can tap into to internet to prove the “oppressed status” and a gay can name say 5 family members of friends to confirm their status. There ARE phones in Iran you know.

    Simple rule – no papers get on a plane back to the nearest UNHCR refugee camp. NOT AUSTRALIA’S problem

  15. Good questions, Darn. Yes, the pollsters will continue to apply Greens preference flows from the last election. However, the effect of that may not be what you think. What you tend to get at times like these is a lot of left-wing Labor identifiers parking a protest vote with the Greens, but ultimately keeping their preference with Labor. So there may be an increase in the Greens primary vote at the expense of Labor, but a stronger share of preferences going back to them – or at least an equal share, allowing for the fact that some Greens supporters may indeed react as you say.

  16. Can someone please tell me why airlines change their flight path when it’s overcast/raining.

    These early morning planes flying overhead are giving me the shites.

  17. [Can someone please tell me why airlines change their flight path when it’s overcast/raining.]
    To piss you off.
    [These early morning planes flying overhead are giving me the shites]
    That means they are doing their job properly.

  18. JV

    For me the treatment of AS come down to the numbers involved. if there were say 1-2000 per year coming as “boat People” I would favour humane treatment and on shore processing.

    However once the numbers get higher then it will increase exponentially until such time as Australia has such a high unemployment rate that we must either suspend all welfare payment or cut them to unsustainable levels.

    The reality is that people will flow in whenever there is scope for a better life and the inflow will only stop if forced or if some equilibrium is reached whereby Australai’s living standards are little better than those elsewhere. That is the sad reality which seems to me to be the main reason for addressing the AS problem.

    There are probably a million plus Iranians desperate to come if it is easy.

    It seems the Indians have found an alternative entry method (forged visa and uni qualifications) and the Irish simply overstay and use the blarney to stay on.

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