Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

Newspoll finds Denis Napthine continuing to record strong personal ratings, but with Labor still at the Coalition’s heels on two-party preferred.

Newspoll has published the second bi-monthly poll of Victorian state voting intention since Denis Napthine became Premier, and the results are broadly similar to the first: the Coalition steady on 43%, Labor down two to 35% and the Greens steady on 12%, with the Coalition moving to a 51-49 lead after pulling level in the previous poll (Baillieu’s final results were 53-47 and 55-45). The Coalition’s primary vote stasis obscures a two-point lift for the Liberals to 40% and a corresponding drop for the Nationals to 3%. Napthine continues to enjoy a strong personal approval rating, up three to 53%, but his disapproval is also up seven to 26% as the uncommitted jump off the fence. Daniel Andrews is down seven to 35% and up six to 34%, partly reversing an unusual result in the immediate aftermath of the Liberal leadership turmoil. Napthine’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 43-24 to 49-26, again reflecting a fall in the uncommitted as respondents become accustomed to the new Premier.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

13 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria”

  1. The worry for Victorian Labor is of course that Rudd will win the federal election. They were counting on the horrors of an Abbott government to drive the last 2% they need in their direction. Rudd is not very popular in Victoria, though if he wins that will probably change.

  2. Thanks to the change in the constitution a few years ago, there’s no chance of Napthine going to an early election as a result of his magnificent poll boost, unless his government passes a no-confidence motion in itself, or maybe they could persuade Geoff Shaw to commit political hara-kiri. 🙂

  3. Psephos.

    I wouldn’t worry too much. Rudd may be starting to come undone already. The Gillard camp was screaming that this would happen if by some chance he did win the leadership tilt. So it was perhaps only a matter of time.

    The car leasing fiasco and now the over-reach on asylum policy shows that you just can’t run a country running from fire to fire and papering over a ‘media solution’ like pulling a rabbit out of your hat. Rudd thinks well but doesn’t think through things well. Nothing really gets finished properly.

    I think Australia realises this. You don’t run a country with one man, regardless of how little sleep he seems to need. The coalition has more ministerial experience on its front bench than the ALP does now after six years of government.

    The team wasn’t great in 2007, thus Rudd’s micromanagement of them. ONe by one, he chewed them up, exhausted them, shafted them (Garrett) to preserve image and they refused to work with him anymore. Then with Gillard and the D-team, it wasn’t to be much better. Instead of building an ordinary team into a gun team as the coalition did from ’96-’02, the revolving door and constant cabinet reshuffles after leadership challenges has left a very inexperienced team in the portfolios they are in.

    The coalition, love them (or hate them as most on PB tend to) will hit the ground running and probably manage to look vastly different to the ALP government, if a little boring and slow.

    That’s what life tends to be like after partying with drunken sailors and managing a nation-wide hangover. Let’s hope there is enough in the budget to hand Kev a couple of valium on the way out..:|

  4. I know everything I wrote in #5 was correct because apparently only the coalition lie and everything in it has been stated on public record by other ALP members.

    So not a rant but a recount of proper bona fide honest to goodness ALP eyewitness accounts.. Always handy to have around. 🙂

  5. 4

    The Coalition have an absolute majority in the Legislative Council until the Next election (when a decent “the Liberals neglect the north and west of Melbourne” campaign should cut their numbers enough to remove their majority, unless their vote goes enough up in other regions). The member for Frankston loosing confidence in the government for 60 days is the only hope for an early election.

  6. 11

    All the signs are that they do not and they would have to engineer a vote of no confidence or legislative to be twice blocked in the government controlled Legislative Council, to allow an early election under the fixed term provisions of the constitution. An early election, unless held a year before the election is due, would also cut the next term of parliament because of the election date fixing provisions.

  7. I am bemused by Bluepill’s description of the the government’s fairly mild action, trying to ensure that people no longer claim a business tax deduction for car private travel, as a “fiasco”.

    It’s a long-overdue move to end an $800 million a year cost to the budget that also has very regressive consequences for sustainability and the environment. And of course Abbott has promised to oppose the measure, but without saying how he might cover the cost if he was in government

    Remember how the restaurant industry claimed that the world as we knew it was coming to an end in 1985 with the introduction of the Fringe Benefits Tax?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *