Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a dead heat a fortnight ago, but there’s some encouragement for Labor in an extra question on asylum seeker policy.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, after a dead heat a fortnight ago. This comes off a three-point lift in the Coalition primary vote to 45%, with Labor down a point to 37% and the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, which blew out from 49-35 in his first poll to 53-31 in his second, is roughly back where it started at 50-34. Rudd’s approval ratings have followed a similar course over the three polls, this one showing approval down a point to 42% and disapproval up five to 41%, while Tony Abbott is steady at 35% and 56%. However, the Prime Minister can take solace in a finding that 26% now consider Labor the past party to deal with asylum seekers, up six since the question was last asked, with the Coalition plummeting 14 points to 33%.

Earlier today we had the regular weekly Morgan poll, which was little changed on last time with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There was actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size).

Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.

UPDATE: And here it is – Labor has pared back a point on two-party preferred to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 7% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are a semi-regular series on important election issues (“Australian jobs and protection of local industries” being up five points on a month ago), best party to handle them (across the board improvement for Labor in the wake of the leadership change), carbon pricing (45% support the move to an ETS with 29% opposed, while support for the “tax” scheme is down to 37% support with 48% opposed compared with 43% each in May – these being relatively supportive results on account of a question which explains it’s industries that pay the tax). Sixty-two per cent said they would support a referendum on recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution with only 16% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,143 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. Psephos

    This is a Diac problem. More of the same that we saw with deporting Australian Citizens.

    I think you are wrong on legal impact and we will have to wait and see.

    However Labor is going to have to fix the mess it has inherited that is the DIAC culture

  6. I think Manus Island only had one inmate for about a year under Howie so I’m guessing rape and torture wasn’t too prevalent then.

  7. [Elizabeth Windsor ‏@Queen_UK 2h
    Military band at Buckingham Palace are playing “Congratulations” for the #RoyalBabyBoy. If Cliff Richard pops up singing he will be shot.]

  8. [I think you are wrong on legal impact and we will have to wait and see.]

    As I’ve said before, it is indeed quite possible that boatist judges will choose to interpret the Convention as meaning what it plainly didn’t mean in 1951. If so, we will withdraw from the Convention. And if that doesn’t work, we will have a referendum to give the Commonwealth clear powers to prevent unauthorised arrivals – which is what the authors of the Constitution intended it to have, by the way. In the long run, in a democracy, no amount of lawyering can prevent the Australian people exercising their sovereignty.

  13. [ Elizabeth Windsor ‏@Queen_UK 2h
    Pissing with rain at Buckingham Palace. That wasn’t exactly what one meant when one said “born to reign”. #RoyalBabyBoy]

    Some of these parody accounts are very funny.

  14. I think it is very clear Gillard Labor was truly set for a masacre given that even the advent of the very popular Rudd and his very good few weeks has been stuck at 49-50

    Labor would have stuck at 45/55 come the election and the worst thing of all could have happened.

    For those who think Rudd has wasted his time have short memories. When he took over Labor was almost around the S-bend in the toilet.

    Emergency procedures had to be enacted, stuff needed to be done quick, attention needed to be grabbed and some audacity to wake up the electorate … to pay attention.

    Rudd has done more than what we could have expected. Carbon Tax, Labor Reform, attack on Abbott’s policy and an audacious AS policy of his own (more of that later).

    In a few weeks so jesus what do people expect? That was time well spent and highly effective. The narrative has changed entirely and Coalition worried and on the back foot.

    People would have been grateful if his returned saved the Senate and some furniture, a win was a pipe dream. But now we even have the chance of that. He managed to do all that he has done in a few weeks..and now people don’t trust him to do is best going forward?

    Maates…just sit back and watch. Labor was in a fracking impossible situation not that long ago….I am willing to let him land the plane from here rather than a few passengers rushing to the front telling him how. Ahh. yes I will hand wring and suggest what I think he might do next…but….at least we got a chance…so I am just going to enjoy the show…win lose or draw.

  19. Just to break the monotony, a little quizz for anyone who’s interested. Let’s see how clever you are:

    What do the words abstemious and facetious have in common?

  20. [Withdrawing from the convention makes rape ok by you then does it?]

    Don’t be childish. The object of this exercise, as you well know, is NOT to send people to PNG; it is to deter them from coming to Indonesia to get on boats in the first place.

  23. Sean – these are some of the bits you selectively ignored

    Kevin Rudd’s tough new stance on asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat has boosted the ALP’s standings on the issue, the latest Newspoll shows.

    The news has lifted Labor’s standings on this issue, with the latest Newspoll, in The Australian newspaper on Tuesday, showing support for Labor rose six percentage points to 26 per cent, while the Coalition’s dropped 14 points to 33 per cent, compared with February results.

    The results were greatest in Sydney’s western suburbs where there was a three percentage point rise among ALP voters who believe Labor is best able to handle the issue of asylum seekers.

    There was a rise in coalition supporters who now favour the ALP, up from four per cent to seven per cent.

    Labor supporters who believed the coalition was best able to handle the task also fell massively from 21 to five per cent.

    Coalition supporters remain overwhelmingly supportive of Tony Abbott’s approach to asylum-seekers, with 71 per cent nominating the opposition as the best to handle the issue, down from 80 in February,” The Australian said.

  24. Re AS I trust Rudd Labor in the very short term plan and will ensure some close oversight of the conditions and treatment there…offer plenty of personnel to help out to raise standards and to ensure proper treatment and nutrition etc.

    Offer PNG all the resources and inducements necessary to achieve this.

    The hope is that potential boat people will quickly give up on a boat journey and instead join the proper system.

    Simultaneously I trust they are furiously working at a regional method/solution to dealing with this issue.

  25. I don’t have the stats but I would think Rape would be a bigger problem on the outside of the camp than on the inside.

  27. Psehpos

    Withdraw from treaty over this and the Greens will have a field day over Labor supporting rape and assault to punish AS.

    The Liberals will of course join them. Despite making noise about abandoning treaty themselves.

  30. [Withdraw from treaty over this and the Greens will have a field day over Labor supporting rape and assault to punish AS.]

    I think there are more important considerations than that.

  31. Centre

    Treaty has obligations. Psephos suggested if adverse court decision due to these obligations when the subject is rape and assault then what follows is logical.

    The loony part is withdrawing from the Convention.

  32. [970
    confessions

    Excellent news:

    Foreign Minister Bob Carr says Australia is looking for another Pacific nation to host an offshore asylum seeker processing centre in addition to those already located in Papua New Guinea and Nauru.

    Senator Carr has been holding talks with the prime minister of Solomon Islands, marking the end of Australia’s military involvement in the regional assistance mission to stop the Solomons’ slide into becoming a failed state a decade ago.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-23/australia-seeks-another-pacific-nation-to-host-processing-centre/4838622%5D

    If all else fails, there is always Bougainville.

  33. People are going to vote for Abbott just to get the effing mention of boats out of their lives;

    they are sick of it!

    Can’t we all talk about something worthwhile? Didn’t someone else sign up for Gonski today?

  34. briefly

    Regional is the solution. If transit countries end up as destination countries the load can be shared and no need for people to get on boats.

    PNG is stop gap until that comes about IMO

  37. [All babies born in Queensland on 22 July will receive a commemorative boxed medallion struck in honour of the birth of a baby boy, the Prince of Cambridge, to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge.

    Premier Campbell Newman said Queensland would also mark the royal birth by making available special commemorative birth certificates for children born in the State in 2013 and lighting up landmark buildings in shades of blue.]
    LOL! What a fucking waste of money!

  38. Centre

    Like it or not there is plenty of boats to come yet. Greens and LNP have not responded officially.

    Yes there was a great presser today by PMKR and Bill Shorten as Catholic schools signed up.

  39. [Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, July 23, 2013 at 11:16 pm | Permalink
    What do the words abstemious and facetious have in common?

    Both have all the vowels in alphabetical order.]

    Dio

    Go to the top of the class. Apparently they are the only two words in the English language that meet this criterion.

  40. The Manus option would appear to be unravelling. Just can’t see how, given the conditions there revealed on Dateline it will be politically possible, let alone morally, and also legally.

    Boats will continue to arrive, and the occupants will continue to be treated illegally despite the right of those people to asylum and protection while their refugee status is determined, but I don’t think Manus will be feasible as a dumping ground. It won’t stop the boats anyway.

    Govt would be much better off treating asylum seekers arriving by boat the way it treats air arrivals – letting them live in the community while their status is determined, while actually doing something to reduce the risks at sea (at last) until a UN regional processing centre can be established at Indonesia paid for by us.

  41. guytaur

    Well we send them to PNG until they get the message.

    Y A W N

    *crashing

    Oh the Greens are lunatics. Did I ever mention that?

    Well in case I hadn’t…the Greens are LUNATICS!

    There 😛

  42. Speaking of boats, as I think someone was a few pages back 😆 does anyone know roughly how long it takes a leaky over crowded boat to travel from Java to Christmas Island? (about 350 km.)

  45. [949
    confessions

    On names, I still think they are missing a golden opportunity not to give the boy a truly memorable name. Hubertus or Amaury are my choices.]

    Ethelred hasn’t had an outing for a while. Arthur, likewise. They could go for the Fawlty touch in royal handles and try Basil.

  48. What about Tuvalu and Kiribati? They are disappearing under the ocean. That’s fairly oppressive, and would get these pesky seaborne refugees who do arrive here out of sight and mind. Wouldn’t surprise me after what we have seen so far.

  50. JV (and others)

    I asked you a question earlier which I think MUST be seriously answered by all those who favour very generous treatment of AS within Australia.

    Just what do you think is the acceptable intake level for AS (and other migrants) into Australia and what do think the impacts will be. I think this is the core question that MUST be answered before any rational policy can be thought through. Bear in mind that for every 50,000 net immigration in 30 years this means an additional 3.5 million added to out population (allowing for kids etc).

    JV there is no right or wrong answer to the question but what is wrong is making policy based on emotion without thinking through the consequences.

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