Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a dead heat a fortnight ago, but there’s some encouragement for Labor in an extra question on asylum seeker policy.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, after a dead heat a fortnight ago. This comes off a three-point lift in the Coalition primary vote to 45%, with Labor down a point to 37% and the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, which blew out from 49-35 in his first poll to 53-31 in his second, is roughly back where it started at 50-34. Rudd’s approval ratings have followed a similar course over the three polls, this one showing approval down a point to 42% and disapproval up five to 41%, while Tony Abbott is steady at 35% and 56%. However, the Prime Minister can take solace in a finding that 26% now consider Labor the past party to deal with asylum seekers, up six since the question was last asked, with the Coalition plummeting 14 points to 33%.

Earlier today we had the regular weekly Morgan poll, which was little changed on last time with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There was actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size).

Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.

UPDATE: And here it is – Labor has pared back a point on two-party preferred to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 7% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are a semi-regular series on important election issues (“Australian jobs and protection of local industries” being up five points on a month ago), best party to handle them (across the board improvement for Labor in the wake of the leadership change), carbon pricing (45% support the move to an ETS with 29% opposed, while support for the “tax” scheme is down to 37% support with 48% opposed compared with 43% each in May – these being relatively supportive results on account of a question which explains it’s industries that pay the tax). Sixty-two per cent said they would support a referendum on recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution with only 16% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,143 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. When the Libs drag people back to international waters do they propose to keep the Navy nearby or will they just be left to fend for themselves?

  2. [Gary,

    It does if it is the election.]
    That’s true.
    I think we can get too engrossed over the result of one poll. If they were all saying the same thing then maybe but they are not atm.

  3. Guytaur, not sure what the lawyers will do, but if there is a buck in it, they will be active.

    But I think you should continue repeating your safety concerns as often as you can. Your efforts may just save a life of an AS as they heed your warning and not board a boat.

  4. Newspoll is good news for Tony Abbott because it means his leadership gets to breathe for another day. If it had tightened even further than the last time the Liberals would be getting leadershit in stereo today.

    I wish people would read things linked to before rushing to half-baked conclusions.

  5. Guytaur,

    Yes, “Human Rights Lawyers”.

    No doubt they’ll spread the curse of the black jelly bean to all Government politicians not rolling around laughing.

  6. PeeBee you will not say that when High Court rules such in breach of law.

    The good thing is it will destroy Howard’s Pacific Solution as well. No safety no go.

  7. [All babies born in Queensland on 22 July will receive a commemorative boxed medallion struck in honour of the birth of a baby boy, the Prince of Cambridge, to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge.

    Premier Campbell Newman said Queensland would also mark the royal birth by making available special commemorative birth certificates for children born in the State in 2013 and lighting up landmark buildings in shades of blue.]
    http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2013/7/23/queensland-celebrates-royal-birth

    Meanwhile people are losing their jobs by the thousands in Qld.

  8. [Just saw Rudd on the news looks like Newspoll has wiped that smug smile off his face]

    NOTHING wipes the smug smile off Rudd’s face. He lost the PMship, his staff threw him in the pool at the Lodge, and he STILL had that smile.

  9. SBS News just showed Newspoll graph showing Handling Asylum Seekers as 47% for Coalition, 26% for Labor

    Where did this 33% for Coalition number come from the other day that I read on here?

  10. Guytaur,

    Apparently you’re Inspector Clouseau as well as a High Court Juge opionista. Bit weak on separation of powers though.

  11. William says – However, the Prime Minister can take solace in a finding that 26% now consider Labor the past party to deal with asylum seekers, up six since the question was last asked, with the Coalition plummeting 14 points to 33%.

  12. [All babies born in Queensland on 22 July will receive a commemorative boxed medallion struck in honour of the birth of a baby boy, the Prince of Cambridge, to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge.]

    He is NOT the “Prince of Cambridge.” Cambridge is not a principality. He will be “Prince [name] of Cambridge.” He has the title Prince because he is great-grandson of the Queen. He is “of Cambridge” because his father is Duke of Cambridge. You’d think monarchists would check these things.

  13. [Asylum seekers who now face jail terms in Nauru and little or no prospect of being resettled in Australia were on the verge of receiving decisions on their claims that could have secured their freedom.

    It can also be revealed that Immigration Minister Tony Burke was considering moving those who have been detained on the remote island for almost a year to Australia before tensions spilled over on Friday.

    Had they been patient a little longer, it is also understood the Nauru government would have opened the facility, enabling the 545 inmates more freedom of movement.

    Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rioters-on-verge-of-freedom-20130722-2qevw.html#ixzz2Zs8stn8j ]

    Hopefully others will learn that you can’t just riot because you aren’t getting what you want.

  14. Guytaur. How do you know what the high court will rule? Pure speculation on your part. However having it brought before the high court will add to the publicity about the conditions you have described above. The more publicity the better. The more AS hear about those conditions the less likely they will be to board a boat.

  15. Hey Tisme

    That Monkey was ageing at the rate of knots before this Newspoll 😯

    Don’t worry 2% is easily gettable in an election campaign 😉

  16. [Where did this 33% for Coalition number come from the other day that I read on here?]

    You didn’t read it here, it was merely another figment of your vivid and misguided Tory imagination.

  17. PeeBee

    Until it gets to court not even expert lawyers know.

    However go look at previous rulings. This is not acceptable and with evidence safety not guaranteed Detention could be in trouble. I certainly think Offshore will be out.

  18. [Where in there does it say its ok to send AS to be raped and assaulted in another country?]

    Nowhere. That’s because (a) the term “asylum seeker” does not appear in the Convention, as I’ve told you about 100 times. And (b) the Convention deals entirely with the rights and responsibilities of “refugees” (that is, people who have been determined to have refugee status), who are on the territory of signatory states. It says NOTHING WHATEVER about people who turn up at the border of a signatory state claiming to be refugees.

  19. I think our Julia is very happy that she was spared a massacre on Sept 14.

    Of course some here are too warped to see it!

  20. zoidlord,

    I think you mean SBS is wrong again, has nothing to do with me.

    I do find it weird though that the numbers added together are so far off 100%

  21. @Sean

    Your reading the graph wrong.

    “However, the Prime Minister can take solace in a finding that 26% now consider Labor the past party to deal with asylum seekers, up six since the question was last asked, with the Coalition plummeting 14 points to 33%.”

    See top of this thread.

  22. [Then why this on UNHCR website]

    Because the UNHCR wants to use Australia as a dumping ground for all the people that they don’t want in their countries.

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