Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.
Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.
Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.
BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.
your so great
could it be that song
Tom H
It had the weird line
“You’re so vain, you probably think this song is about you”
which I could never quite understand.
Somebody promise me Emo aint “singing” again!
I see Sydney’s second airport is getting a run again.
My prediction: human beings will land on Mars before they land at Sydney’s second Airport.
Sorry. I even stuffed up my spelling AGAIN f–ck – I think Warren Beatty as well, I think Tom is right.
[I thought it was about Mick JAgger?]
Jagger sings backing vocals.
AA,
Abbott will dump Direct Action after the election
According to Wiki the song has multiple possible subjects.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You%27re_So_Vain#Subject_of_the_song
[Abbott will dump Direct Action after the election]
The Libs will dump Abbott after the election … if not sooner
TH:
Yes, I was wrong about Jagger.
Night all, off to the BBQ for slave duties.
[Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 2m
Though we have a winner of #emmoquiz an obvious final clue: the song was not written for the movie but the movie made it famous.]
your so vain,,, I wonder if that’s it
your so vain,,, I wonder if that’s it
[Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 2m
Though we have a winner of #emmoquiz an obvious final clue: the song was not written for the movie but the movie made it famous.]
Whoever suggested
as time goes by
might win the chocolates – not sure though
‘Your So Vain, that was about Dylan though I think’.
Kevin hums it to himself.
Dylan certainly sang it in concert a few times
Can’t be “You’re So Vain” as that was a hit for Carly Simon and the clue says it was not a hit for her.
And re “As Time Goes By”, I can find no evidence that Bob Dylan ever performed the song (the website ExpectingRain.com has a search function – and it comes up blank).
Hmmm..
Gee, I thought it was the Robin Hood soundtrack.
Tom Hawkins
Are you thinking of the Dylan-penned song
“Is Your Love in Vain”? (off Street Legal, and
often wrongly condemned as misogynist)
I’m unaware Dylan ever performed “You’re So Vain”.
‘His friends are rather fond of Robin;??? 😀
[What were your other three great-grandfathers up to?]
One was a solicitor in rural Yorkshire.
One was a bank manager in Brisbane.
One was grazier in NSW and Mayor of Albury.
All tories without a doubt.
love to see emmo on rock wiz
[I’m unaware Dylan ever performed “You’re So Vain”.]
I’m not saying he did. I was sharing some facts about the song.
Bob Dylan has covered a few Warren Zevon songs, but then I can’t think of any of his that became a movie hit, or sung by Carly Simon.
ST @7:49pm Abbott will dump Direct Action after the election
What – Tony Abbott is lying? Surely not. After all, it makes perfect sense for the’Liberals’ to spend billions on a plan that won’t work to prevent emissions of an invisible (and probably weightless) substance to fix a problem that most of their party doesn’t believe exists.
Perfect for Kevin.
You’re So Vain by Carly Simon
You walked into the party
Like you were walking onto a yacht
Your hat strategically dipped below one eye
Your scarf it was apricot
You had one eye in the mirror
As you watched yourself gavotte
And all the girls dreamed that they’d be your partner
They’d be your partner, and
You’re so vain
You probably think this song is about you
You’re so vain
I’ll bet you think this song is about you
Don’t you? Don’t you?
You had me several years ago
When I was still quite naive
Well, you said that we made such a pretty pair
And that you would never leave
But you gave away the things you loved
And one of them was me
I had some dreams they were clouds in my coffee
Clouds in my coffee, and
You’re so vain
You probably think this song is about you
You’re so vain
I’ll bet you think this song is about you
Don’t you? Don’t you?
I had some dreams they were clouds in my coffee
Clouds in my coffee, and
You’re so vain
You probably think this song is about you
You’re so vain
I’ll bet you think this song is about you
Don’t you? Don’t you?
Well, I hear you went up to Saratoga
And your horse naturally won
Then you flew your Lear jet up to Nova Scotia
To see the total eclipse of the sun
Well, you’re where you should be all the time
And when you’re not, you’re with
Some underworld spy or the wife of a close friend
Wife of a close friend, and
You’re so vain
You probably think this song is about you
You’re so vain
I’ll bet you think this song is about you
Don’t you? Don’t you?
‘Nobody does it better’
ST there is no way Abbott will dump Direct Action if he were elected. It will be a golden opportunity to give $3.2 billion of your hard earned tax dollars to his mates ‘on the land’. Of course they will have to do something pathetic for it like plant a few trees to make it look legit, but it will be money for jam.
If you want to know how it is done, just check out how big Ted (Victoria) let his mates run their cows in the ‘high country’ (or national parks to you and I) as soon as he was elected. the Federal government stopped him, so Ted took them to court over it, lost and had to pay costs. Good use of public money?
My Say
While I am on deck.
Thank you for your twitter direction to Bridget and then her site. A most perceptive and moving article.
http://oflynnbridget.wordpress.com/
As time goes by
I can’t imagine Dylan singing such a silly song.
[Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 9m
As Time Goes By was written in 1931 and adopted for Casablanca in 1942. Covered by Carly Simon. Winner of #emmoquiz @GordonAplin Well done!]
Avoid the Train when in Spain
And You’re so Vain was allegedly written about Warren Beatty
Psephos
As a Deakinite, he was probably more progressive than you are.
Pee Bee
Precisely.
All schemes and plans and booklets and subterfuges and alternatives are inevitably and reductively intended to shift the money to the big end.
When and where did Bob Dylan perform
As Time Goes By?
Very curious. I can find no evidence he did.
NOT silly song.
That would be Willie Nelson.
As time goes by.
http://oflynnbridget.wordpress.com/
yes I found it on twitter,,i think
yes I think its as time goes by .think that’s what finns is posting
gosh our own rock quiz
my oh big fan of Dylan can not think either I google it
yes
an influential figure in popular music and culture for more …
As Time Goes By (song) – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_Time_Goes_By_(song)
“As Time Goes By” is a song written by Herman Hupfeld in 1931. … Wilson did not sing the preceding verse in Casablanca, however, and most subsequent … Barbra Streisand from The Third Album · Bob Dylan, then known as Bob Zimmerman …
According to wikky
[Bob Dylan, then known as Bob Zimmerman, performed the song on January 9, 1959 at the Jacket Jamboree in Hibbing Minnesota.]
[As a Deakinite, he was probably more progressive than you are.]
I doubt there were any Deakinites in WA. He was a follower of Forrest, who was an arch-Tory.
Question:
Which batsmen is wristier:
1) Dilip Vengsaker
2) Mark Waugh
3) Muhammad Azzuradin
4) David Gower
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 7:48 pm | Permalink
AA,
Abbott will dump Direct Action after the election
—————————————————
so he’s going to the election with a lie…..he’s lying to the people…..how hypocritical….
Bob Dylan’s far better (though misunderstood) “Vain” song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grnMdrtuZ3I
alias:
[Bob Dylan, then known as Bob Zimmerman, performed the song on January 9, 1959 at the Jacket Jamboree in Hibbing Minnesota.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_Time_Goes_By_%28song%29