Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,530 comments on “Nielsen: 50-50”

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  1. Ctar1 @ 2008

    [ After Marcus they were stuffed.]

    Pertinax (who succeeded Commodus) might have been a good emperor – but the Praetorian Guard did him in. (Sound familiar?)

    Aurelian was another decent emperor. But he was assassinated by someone with a grudge.

  6. [‘Open carry’ is the latest NRA gig.

    Instead of concealing your weapon de jour you cart it around in full view.]

    Oh Goody! The “bad” guys will then know who to shoot first, or who to king hit to get hold of a weapon at short notice.

  8. The Community Cabinet is coming from a Stae High School. I thought Little Big Man had banned pollies from going to schools.

  10. Apart from being an ex-seminarian, I have finally found another thing I share with TAbbott: no reverence for Holy Mother the Market. 🙂

  11. Where are all those Labor commenters on here who said electricity prices would never come down if the Carbon Tax/Price was reduced?

    We know who you are. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  17. 2049

    No, the photos are evidence that Zimmerman was injured but not whether it was Martin or Zimmerman that injured Zimmerman. If you had just disproportionately shot someone, would you not be willing to rough yourself up quite a bit to avoid serious charges?

  19. Tom,

    I notice when the facts don’t suit the left they go into conspiracy mode.

    Now Zimmerman beat himself up… right. The jury had all the facts that you and I don’t have and they decided he shot in self defence. Other than the fact the guy shot was black and the guy shooting was half-white, it’s a non-story really.

  22. Sean

    Yeah real non story. Those protests on the streets and statements by Al Sharpton et al all figments of imagination

  24. Before ABC24 closes it down, is there an alternate website streaming the community cabinet.

    Bummer…. I missed out on tickets to the CC

  25. Electricity prices in WA = 62% increase in last 3 years – none of which due to former CT.

    Another 3% from July 1.

    We have had a Liberal government for the last 4 years and the next four.

    The Conservative Paradise in the West has meant 65% increase in domestic electricity tariffs with little or nothing to do with CT.

  26. [No we got photographic evidence, his nose was busted and he had cuts all over the back of his head. Google is your friend]

    Google maybe your friend but a basic evidentiary principles are complete strangers to you.

  28. ST @2049

    You don’t have to have an opinion on everything. Zimmermans case is more complicated than you make it sound.

  33. Boerwar

    [I was referring to the books, not the TV series which I have never seen.]

    Evaluation, esp in the arts, is always tinged (at least) by subjectivity; even if one’s trying to be objective.

    I’ve read some of the books – not in sequence – when I could get them (not easy, except when OS)- in the Bad Old Days before ebay, Amazon, Book Depository etc, with their Access, Access, Access; moreover at a reasonable price.

    Both Swedish (all up, there are 3 Wallanders, if you count Branagh’s in English) were worth watching. But if you go on a binge, start with the 9 Films, with blond Rolf Lassgård as Wallander: (currently avail in Oz Films 1-6: Region 2- works on computers, blu-ray & multi-region from fishpond.com.au)

    IMO, RL’s Wallander has a fair helping of the Nordic version of Weltschmerz which (again imo) Branagh didn’t quite capture in his more intense, bit too overly-Royal-Shakespearean portrayal – though I did enjoy Branagh’s acting.

    Swedish TV (tho first 3 released in cinemas): Krister Henriksson – the only dark haired actor in the role – as Wallander. All but one of the first 13 are based on new storylines suggested by Mankell. Probably the easiest & most interesting to watch, with strong character development as years & series pass; reflecting C21 problems most countries share – foreign workers, wacko religious types, refugees & illegal immigrants, smuggling etc etc,

    IMO Henriksson’s portrayal shows some touches of Lassgård, some “Cracker”, with some (anachronistically) of what Martin Shaw brings to George Gently; the rest just Henriksson, I guess.

    Branagh is Branagh: definitely a stage actor in a TV series, and more haunting (he broods well, does silence & stillness well). He inhabits & dominates role & settings (as top actors do); beautiful voice, beautiful movement, big imo almost tangible personality. Good coverage of Wallander’ father’s death.

    I enjoyed all 3 versions; but I might not have, had I not seen the 3 series in sequence. Though a series “internal” sequencing was not imo very important – that my access to the Henriksson series was “all over the shop” didn’t matter much as episodes are almost all self-contained.

    All available from main online Oz & international sellers, though some of the first (film) series can sometimes be hard to access.

  36. I think Labor should use this quote by Turnbull about Abbott (via GetUp)

    Perhaps Malcolm Turnbull said it best back in 2009:

    “Tony himself has in just four or five months publicly advocated the blocking of the ETS, the passing of the ETS, the amending of the ETS and if the amendments were satisfactory passing it, and now the blocking of it.” http://bit.ly/12CyuuZ

  43. [Gauss
    Posted Tuesday, July 16, 2013 at 6:13 pm | PERMALINK
    Where are all those Labor commenters on here who said electricity prices would never come down if the Carbon Tax/Price was reduced?

    We know who you are. ]

    Lol agree. Also I thought it was imposible to ditch the tax…. Uncertainty and all that jazz. Plus, we have been told over and over again that we needed a labor government to save the tax from Abbott………..

    Kev is a laugh.

  45. Thanks Rua… prior I checked the online TV program and it said the ABC 24 was going through to 7.30pm

    Hope they show the whole show.

    Pissed off I missed out on a ticket.

  47. By the by…. Central Qld has buckleys chance of getting a team in the NRL.

    I’m 58 and got more chance of being appointed captain coach of the team then them getting accepted.

  48. It is idle to speculate on what bases jurors reach their conclusions.

    An acquittal ranges from “obviously he/she did not do it” to “at the end of the day we are not convinced to the required standard as to guilt”. Each juror will fall somewhere in that range.

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