Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,530 comments on “Nielsen: 50-50”

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  6. Maybe the Eels should relocate to Central Qld?

    Ricky Stuart is your coach if you want to take a crap team and make them mega crap

  7. The niceties of the CT is totally lost on Joe Public.

    The simple politics is that Rudd has neutralised the issue.

    The “CT” has been taken care of, the “boats” are not far away and that just leaves the “mining tax”.

    Abbott – always brittle – is about to crumble.

    Nothing left is there.

  11. [ALP into 2.6
    LNP out to 1.48

    Won’t Peta be livid!!]

    Might she be having a word to the LNP treasurer to invest some of their election funds on the betting market to influence the odds?

  14. jeffemu, the next expansion teams will be a second Brisbane team and Perth.

    Seriously, WTF are people suddenly betting on a Labor win today? Does someone know something we don’t? The constant narrowing of the odds today is, well, odd.

  17. Don’t blame blacks for being suspicious about the laws.

    Open season on black boys after a verdict like this
    Calls for calm after George Zimmerman was acquitted of murdering Trayvon Martin are empty words for black families
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    Gary Younge in Chicago
    The Guardian, Sunday 14 July 2013 23.28 AEST
    Jump to comments (2683)

    Trayvon Martin, who was shot dead in February last year. Photograph: Reuters
    Let it be noted that on this day, Saturday 13 July 2013, it was still deemed legal in the US to chase and then shoot dead an unarmed young black man on his way home from the store because you didn’t like the look of him.

    The killing of 17-year-old Trayvon Martin last year was tragic. But in the age of Obama the acquittal of George Zimmerman offers at least that clarity. For the salient facts in this case were not in dispute. On 26 February 2012 Martin was on his way home, minding his own business armed only with a can of iced tea and a bag of Skittles. Zimmerman pursued him, armed with a 9mm handgun, believing him to be a criminal. Martin resisted. They fought. Zimmerman shot him dead.

    Who screamed. Who was stronger. Who called whom what and when and why are all details to warm the heart of a cable news producer with 24 hours to fill. Strip them all away and the truth remains that Martin’s heart would still be beating if Zimmerman had not chased him down and shot him.

    There is no doubt about who the aggressor was here. It appears that the only reason the two interacted at all, physically or otherwise, is that Zimmerman believed it was his civic duty to apprehend an innocent teenager who caused suspicion by his existence alone.

    Appeals for calm in the wake of such a verdict raise the question of what calm there can possibly be in a place where such a verdict is possible. Parents of black boys are not likely to feel calm. Partners of black men are not likely to feel calm. Children with black fathers are not likely to feel calm. Those who now fear violent social disorder must ask themselves whose interests are served by a violent social order in which young black men can be thus slain and discarded.

    But while the acquittal was shameful it was not a shock. It took more than six weeks after Martin’s death for Zimmerman to be arrested and only then after massive pressure both nationally and locally. Those who dismissed this as a political trial (a peculiar accusation in the summer of Bradley Manning and Edward Snowden) should bear in mind that it was politics that made this case controversial.

    Charging Zimmerman should have been a no-brainer. He was not initially charged because Florida has a “stand your ground” law whereby deadly force is permitted if the person “reasonably believes” it is necessary to protect their own life, the life of another or to prevent a forcible felony.

    Since it was Zimmerman who stalked Martin, the question remains: what ground is a young black man entitled to and on what grounds may he defend himself? What version of events is there for that night in which Martin gets away with his life? Or is it open season on black boys after dark?

    Zimmerman’s not guilty verdict will be contested for years to come. But he passed judgement on Trayvon that night summarily.

    “Fucking punks,” Zimmerman told the police dispatcher that night. “These assholes. They always get away.”

    So true it’s painful. And so predictable .

  18. Flip Flop Labor

    Flip Labor: The Carbon Tax is a tax on the big polluters, it won’t affect households, PROMISE!

    Flop Labor: We are removing the Carbon Tax, this will reduce households cost of living by $280 a year

    Flip Labor: You can’t stop the boats using offshore processing! The Pacific Solution didn’t work

    Flop Labor: We need offshore processing to stop the boats, our expert panel says the Pacific Solution worked

    Flip Labor: Can you imagine a government run by men in blue ties?

    Flop Labor: Today we are announcing a new leadership team of men in blue ties

    etc etc etc. They are completely full of the brown smelly stuff

  27. Mod Lib
    More reason for coalition to be nervous

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-16/abbott-left-red-faced-over-denison-gaffe/4823802

    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has made an embarrassing gaffe during a visit to Tasmania, forgetting the name of the Liberal candidate for a key seat.

    Mr Abbott was in Launceston to campaign with the Liberal candidate for Bass, Andrew Nikolic.

    During a media conference Mr Abbott was asked to name the party’s candidate for the Hobart-based seat of Denison, which is held by high-profile independent Andrew Wilkie.

    But he was unable to name Tanya Denison.

    “I’m afraid I’m here in Bass and I’m talking with our candidate for Bass. I’m afraid you’ve got me on that one,” Mr Abbott said.

    Ms Denison took to Twitter to play down the gaffe.

    Amused @tonyabbottmhr forgot my name, happens to all of us. But now considering changing my name to something more memorable. #politas
    — Tanya Denison (@Denison4Denison) July 16, 2013

  28. I know I am bloody well cheering for the NBN… turn the fibre due east from Rocky. I’m waiting like a kid a Christmas time.

    Bring it on.

  29. cud chewer
    Posted Tuesday, July 16, 2013 at 6:53 pm | PERMALINK
    Meguire,

    If it were just about policy, itd be time to bet the house on those odds for Labor.

    ———

    yes labor would be in front of the polls also if they were based on reality

    There is no reason for the coalition to be even close in this election

    the only reason is new ltd

  31. [The coalition needs to talk policies otherwise they are facing an landslide defeat]
    MB, you’re back to your delusional self after the trauma of ruddstoration!

  33. It’s Time
    Posted Tuesday, July 16, 2013 at 6:57 pm | PERMALINK

    MB, you’re back to your delusional self after the trauma of ruddstoration!

    ———————-

    Nope it always been the case for me , but newsltd /abbott coalition and pro coalition are coming to reality that Abbott will do another hewson

  34. It’s Time
    Posted Tuesday, July 16, 2013 at 6:57 pm | PERMALINK

    MB, you’re back to your delusional self after the trauma of ruddstoration!

    ———————-

    Nope it always been the case for me , but newsltd /abbott coalition and pro coalition are coming to reality that Abbott will do another hewson

  40. It’s a bit rough blaming Abbott for not knowing the name of the Lib candidate in Denison. I’d be surprised if Rudd, or Gillard before him, has memorized the names of all 80 or so first time ALP candidates in the upcoming election.

    It only goes to show that the media have caught the scent of blood re Abbott. It’s not going to end well for him, methinks.

  41. Well that’ s 5 posts. A record for me. Problem with the IPad. Did Rudd answer the question on the mining tax. I don’t think so.

  43. meher baba
    Posted Tuesday, July 16, 2013 at 7:04 pm | PERMALINK
    It’s a bit rough blaming Abbott for not knowing the name of the Lib candidate in Denison.

    —————–

    I may be wrong , but did Abbott also forget someone in 2010 also , and other seats

  44. [ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, July 16, 2013 at 7:02 pm | PERMALINK
    How many friggin’ people have flown from Brisbane to Rocky to ask CC questions?]

    I thought you guys loved talking about climate change?

    Now you want hush hush?

  50. Answer to 2146.

    Electricity prices up by 65% in WA and not a CP in sight.

    All due to living in a Conservative Paradise.

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