Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,530 comments on “Nielsen: 50-50”

Comments Page 4 of 51
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  1. [147
    ShowsOn

    Applying the State x State scores reported by Nielsen, Labor win with 79 seats (80 if Melbourne returns from the Greens).

    We have a ball game on our hands.

    Can Rudd overcome the unpopularity of his party?
    Can the Liberals overcome the unpopularity of their leader?]

    Well, plainly, voters dislike Abbott more than they dislike the ALP; and the like Rudd more than they like the LNP…or something like that… 🙂

  4. [Love those 22 and 24 point changes. incredible really.]
    Huge margins of error though, for S.A. it is 9% and a 14% Greens vote in S.A. is unbelievable.

  5. crikey,

    I meant Carbon Permits… it’s late mate.

    Hope you guys are ready for another 3 years of Rudd talk and photoshoots with very little action

  8. [156
    crikey whitey

    Briefly. Hello again.

    I declared it for Labor about five days ago.

    It really is all over.]

    Hi cw…and you are seldom mistaken! We should order champagne 🙂

  13. [Hope you guys are ready for another 3 years of Rudd talk and photoshoots with very little action]
    wow Sean! You have been repeating that we are at “peak Rudd” over and over to yourself for the last 2.5 weeks.

    Now you are predicting Rudd will win.

    WHAT WENT WRONG BRO!?

  18. why are citizens discussing politics at 1am, in china you’d be arrested and condemned to lonely nights in a bright room

  22. I had a look at the full Nielsen tables.

    ALP primary of 39% became 50% on 2pp.

    I gave the ALP 80% of Greens preferences [a tad generous?]so that was Greens at 9% x80% = about 7% to the ALP 2pp.
    Which means ‘Others” at 8% primary were breaking about 50% to add 4% to the ALP 2pp to take them to 50:50.

    Putting it simply – ‘others’ appear to be splitting their preferences pretty evenly between the COALition and the ALP.
    [Maths is approximate and doesn’t allow for small ’roundings’]

    That’s more than the ALP usually gets historically isn’t it?

  23. [Putting it simply – ‘others’ appear to be splitting their preferences pretty evenly between the COALition and the ALP.]

    Except that these preferences are based on flows at the last election, rather than what respondents were saying.

  24. Evening all. Stayed up too late watching cricket (doh!) and cycling (WTF?). Chris Froome is an amazing cyclist. He has now cycled two mountain stages (Axe 3 and Ventoux) in times comparable to those Lance Armstrong did at his drug fuelled peak back early last decade. Hmmm.

    There is an interesting discussion of th science of it here. There is an Aussie coach involved too.
    http://www.sportsscientists.com/

    Kind of makes me womder if we are ever going tomhere a credible resolution of the drug scandals in AFL or NRL. We would be pretty niaive to assume our professional sportsmen are any less likely to cheat than those from other countries,

  25. The polls are encouraging too. The future is not written; it is all up for grabs with sensible policy and campaigning. Night all.

  26. [Except that these preferences are based on flows at the last election, rather than what respondents were saying.]

    Bummer, that destroyed a perfectly good hypothesis.

  28. Kevin Bonham.

    Optimism aside. The scarey bit is along the lines of something which you, Kevin Bonham pointed out, some time ago.

    Something along the lines that Labor does not have (and is unlikely to get, don’t think you said that bit though)

    enough seats already and need to gain some one or few.

    To obtain a majority?

  29. Yeah, its still a bit …whatever.
    Cos if 5% of the swing to the ALP came from ‘others’, the remaining 5% coming from the COALition and Greens, then the previous ‘others’, from a month ago, must have been stacked with ‘parked’ ALPers. So breaking others down on previous election allocation is misleading [?].
    Does that make sense?

  30. [a 14% Greens vote in S.A. is unbelievable.]

    While that’s probably true, a higher Green vote could be plausible for two reasons:

    1) The voters who were upset by Gillard’s removal (many of whom are in SA) are on the left side of centre and, if they were to protest the ALP at the ballot box, could well do so by voting for the Greens.

    2) Sarah Hanson-Young has been extremely visible and has run quite a prominent campaign. Her exposure has not been negative, so it’s possible she might be pulling up the vote. Furthermore, the Malcolm Fraser endorsement might help attract some moderate Liberal voters to the Greens.

    As I said, you could (and probably are) right about that Green figure being too high but if there is actually a rise in Green support here, the above two reasons might shed a little light on it.

  33. Those of us who said on this site that Gillard was deeply disliked…despite her many virtues/..have been proved right by the polls
    Those who denounced and vilified us should think about an apology..right Tom Paine … and Bemused

  38. Nothing to do with high horses.. but it shows that Rudd IS the horse for the course…

    and what about a recognition from some that we who thought Gillard was unalectable …. were right in the end

  44. I try not to indulge in smug hubris but if Sean’s rapid descent to insanity is any guide I’ll be having lots of fun reading the comments section on News Ltd websites the day after the election.

    Remember the IPA Abbott wish list? Looks like it may have to wait.:3

  45. 173
    “Except that these preferences are based on flows at the last election, rather than what respondents were saying.”

    What if we consider the preferences from 2007? Could those be more indicative of reality given the popularity of Rudd and the shock in 2010? Labor got much better preferences in 2007.

  48. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Maybe, just maybe the new polls will give the MSM pack the nerve to better pursue Abbott with good questions and better follow ups.

    Mark Kenny says Abbott is sinking.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/rudds-pulling-power-puts-poll-on-knife-edge-20130714-2pyea.html
    Pinstripe Hartcher opines otherwise – at least the headline does.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/labor-looking-good-but-still-short-of-a-win-20130714-2py84.html
    Spill now!!!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-says-many-prefer-him-to-tony-abbott-20130714-2pxqm.html
    Come on down, Tone!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/theres-no-debate-its-a-win-for-rudd-20130713-2pwlw.html
    Corporate power on display.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/supermarket-chains-clout-under-scrutiny-20130714-2py94.html
    Fairfax launches its “One fact check per day” feature and gives the Coalition a “Mostly False” rating.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalitions-15b-carbon-price-claim-mostly-false-20130714-2py81.html
    It’s “game on” says Michael Gordon.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/now-who-can-run-the-best-campaign-20130714-2pybr.html
    And I wonder what the mouthpiece for the Minerals Council, the super smarmy Easter Island lookalike Mitch Hooke, will have to say on this tonight on QandA.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-shift-not-enough-20130714-2py4p.html

  49. Section 2 . . .

    The cartoonists are having a field day with Abbott today!

    Alan Moir is back from holidays. MUST SEE!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Andrew Dyson has a laugh at Abbott, too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    David Rowe has Rudd shifting the goalposts.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Wow! Cathy Wilcox CRUELS Abbott!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html

  50. And from the Land of the Free –

    It may not be completely over for George Zimmerman yet.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/07/14/pres-obamas-statement-on-verdict-doj-to-review-case-to-determine-if-it-should-consider-prosecuting-zimmerman/
    It’s not pretty.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/07/14/73-year-old-musician-lester-chambers-assaulted-on-stage-after-dedicating-song-to-trayvon/
    The laws are much of the problem
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/07/14/trayvons-voice-was-silenced-but-yours-isnt/
    Some really pointed cartoons on Florida and the Zimmerman decision.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/07/14/cartoons-of-the-day-zimmerman-trial-verdict/
    Of course FoxNews gets down and dirty on the subject.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/fox-blames-president-obama-zimmerman-verdi
    A very sobering reflection on the verdict by The Young Turks.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017131468

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