GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.
[Federal Labor needs to push the primary vote up into the low to mid 40s, if they are to win the election.]
No they don’t.
‘Rudd has done a great job muddying’
All too unedifying. I hate boxing,anyway.
Seems to have worked, though.
Offer your coaching to Biffo.
I believe Rudd will declare the republic tomorrow morning and then call the election, running on a bash-the-Poms platform. Will win all seats except a few on the Costa Inglese in WA.
geoffrey 53
Where did you get that?
alp +11 in SA and +7 in WA – in common parlance stunning. in two weeks.
@James/95
To Labor or to Liberal?
@Crikey/104
Last newspoll
https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes
105: Sorry, to Liberal
[Meanwhile, if you have nothing better to do, you can read my speech on the 30th anniversary of the Victorian AIDS Council.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/speech%5D
Great speech, Psephos. Very well done and beautifully observed!!
Zoidlord. Thanks.
Psephos’s speech is indeed a very interesting read.
New thread.
Whoops – I meant to say, that’s a link to my SA Newspoll thread. This is still “the thread”.
So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?
Local issues?
Oh. Thought so.
Fine speech, Psephos. You must be proud of what you have helped achieve.
[So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?
Local issues?]
The state government’s been in for 12 years now. People are starting to look for something new.
Not sure how they arrived at 56/44 to Libs in South Oz, based on the primary votes – 54/55 for Libs more like it.
This is a Rudd sugar hit… we will soon remember Kevin of old and cracks are starting to appear already.
[So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?
Local issues?]
Labor = Toxic
Rudd = Anti-Labor, therefore popular
Simple really. Don’t forget the factional girl Gillard was at 43% on TPP
@Sean
I don’t care for your internal rantings.
zoidlord,
It’s commonsense really if you are willing to open your mind.
Rudd is seen as the Anti-Labor. He knifed Gillard. He axed the union bagmen. He’s knifed almost the entire front bench.
Labors been toxic for years the only reason Rudd is so popular is he’s eliminated more Labor pollies in 3 weeks than the Coalition has done in 10 years!
Very interesting speech. The different roles of Neil Blewitt and Bruce Shepherd in the public health response was very telling.
[So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?
Local issues?]
People hate Abbott.
Psephos.
Wow!
Wonderfully expressed.
I will pass it on to my gay nephew and his partner.
@Sean/121
Considering that I do have open mind, I don’t need to open it for your side, I know now that SA Labor been in for 12 years, that I didn’t know.
The SA state government is polling badly, while the numbers are still quite healthy, for the same reason it was so in 2010 in SA and Victoria.
Unless there is anger against a government of one level, voters can distinguish between them and say “I have had enough of government X, but I will give government Y another go” – even if they are of the same party.
When there is anger, of course, that goes out the window and it becomes “Party X is so bad, I will note vote for them at all!”
[while the numbers are still quite healthy,]
that should read “federal numbers”
Psephos,
Nice piece.
Another feature of those times was that Government’s were actively moving away from Institutionalisation as the social solution for problems such as Mental Health, Diseases and physical impairments.
So the fact that your group took such an active role in identifying the issues, advocating the action required and implementing the preferrred solution put you in tune with the prevailing political ethos of the time (notwithstanding the attitudes of the various throwbacks in the medical fraternity and broader society).
I’ve also read that “the cure” might also be with “mother nature”. Like most viruses that we all deal with they seem to weaken over time due to atural resistance building in the population.
Carey Moore.
I understand that we are and possibly remain angry at the former leadership of SA Govt.
It would be wondrous to see, however, that the Libs have anything to offer.
Have not yet encountered even a pamphlet.
Yet alone a person.
@Carey/126
Agreed, I guess that could happen in QLD as well.
I should I say did happen in qld @ 130.
BTW
Carey Moore.
30 July, Seacliff Yacht Club.
Tim Costello in attendance.
Turn up, if you would.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 4m
#Nielsen Poll NSW Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 50 (+11) L/NP 50 (-11) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 4m
#Nielsen Poll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 51 (0) L/NP 49 (0) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 3m
#Nielsen Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 (+12) L/NP 51 (-12) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 3m
#Nielsen Poll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (+12) L/NP 48 (-12) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Nielsen Poll WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (+2) L/NP 52 (-2) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 52s
The #Nielsen Poll tables: http://bit.ly/18W2JRr #auspol
The Nielsen Poll tables:
” rel=”nofollow”>Nielsen tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
[I’ve also read that “the cure” might also be with “mother nature”. Like most viruses that we all deal with they seem to weaken over time due to atural resistance building in the population.]
WTF?
What about vaccination and immunisation!?
The Libs seem to have a major problem with women and young people under 40.
I’m not sure Abbott has any ammunition to fire that would turn around those perceptions.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 51s
The #Nielsen Poll Leader Attributes tables: http://bit.ly/13gDi4p #auspol
[The Nielsen Poll tables:
]
14% for Greens in SA seems to be absurdly high.
Well this sums up why the Coalition are running attack ads against Rudd!
My favourite is this:
Has firm grasp of foreign policy?
Rudd 73: Abbott:39
Rudd leads by 10% on “grasp of economic policy”.
That’s the election right there.
If Rudd convinces electorate he has better economic ideas Labor will win.
Showsy,
Psephos covered off those options by talking about a cure in the next decade.
Applying the State x State scores reported by Nielsen, Labor win with 79 seats (80 if Melbourne returns from the Greens).
[Showsy,
Psephos covered off those options by talking about a cure in the next decade.]
Well it sure as hell ain’t gonna cure itself.
140
Not hard. Rudd has a history in foreign policy and famously speaks Mandarin. Abbott, not so much.
[My favourite is this:
Has firm grasp of foreign policy?
Rudd 73: Abbott:39]
He’s certainly got more travel experience thats for sure.
The Prime Ministerial jet will be burning Carbon Credits like there is no tomorrow if Rudd wins government again.
[Applying the State x State scores reported by Nielsen, Labor win with 79 seats (80 if Melbourne returns from the Greens).]
We have a ball game on our hands.
Can Rudd overcome the unpopularity of his party?
Can the Liberals overcome the unpopularity of their leader?
Tom,
It’s mostly Grapes of wrath from Abbott.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 3m
#Nielsen Poll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (+12) L/NP 48 (-12) #auspol
Love those 22 and 24 point changes. incredible really.