Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,530 comments on “Nielsen: 50-50”

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  1. [Federal Labor needs to push the primary vote up into the low to mid 40s, if they are to win the election.]

    No they don’t.

  2. ‘Rudd has done a great job muddying’

    All too unedifying. I hate boxing,anyway.

    Seems to have worked, though.

    Offer your coaching to Biffo.

  3. I believe Rudd will declare the republic tomorrow morning and then call the election, running on a bash-the-Poms platform. Will win all seats except a few on the Costa Inglese in WA.

  4. geoffrey 53

    Where did you get that?

    alp +11 in SA and +7 in WA – in common parlance stunning. in two weeks.

  5. [So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?

    Local issues?]

    The state government’s been in for 12 years now. People are starting to look for something new.

  6. [So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?

    Local issues?]

    Labor = Toxic

    Rudd = Anti-Labor, therefore popular

    Simple really. Don’t forget the factional girl Gillard was at 43% on TPP

  7. zoidlord,

    It’s commonsense really if you are willing to open your mind.

    Rudd is seen as the Anti-Labor. He knifed Gillard. He axed the union bagmen. He’s knifed almost the entire front bench.

    Labors been toxic for years the only reason Rudd is so popular is he’s eliminated more Labor pollies in 3 weeks than the Coalition has done in 10 years!

  8. Very interesting speech. The different roles of Neil Blewitt and Bruce Shepherd in the public health response was very telling.

  9. [So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?

    Local issues?]
    People hate Abbott.

  10. @Sean/121

    Considering that I do have open mind, I don’t need to open it for your side, I know now that SA Labor been in for 12 years, that I didn’t know.

  11. The SA state government is polling badly, while the numbers are still quite healthy, for the same reason it was so in 2010 in SA and Victoria.

    Unless there is anger against a government of one level, voters can distinguish between them and say “I have had enough of government X, but I will give government Y another go” – even if they are of the same party.

    When there is anger, of course, that goes out the window and it becomes “Party X is so bad, I will note vote for them at all!”

  12. Psephos,

    Nice piece.

    Another feature of those times was that Government’s were actively moving away from Institutionalisation as the social solution for problems such as Mental Health, Diseases and physical impairments.

    So the fact that your group took such an active role in identifying the issues, advocating the action required and implementing the preferrred solution put you in tune with the prevailing political ethos of the time (notwithstanding the attitudes of the various throwbacks in the medical fraternity and broader society).

    I’ve also read that “the cure” might also be with “mother nature”. Like most viruses that we all deal with they seem to weaken over time due to atural resistance building in the population.

  13. Carey Moore.

    I understand that we are and possibly remain angry at the former leadership of SA Govt.

    It would be wondrous to see, however, that the Libs have anything to offer.

    Have not yet encountered even a pamphlet.

    Yet alone a person.

  14. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Nielsen Poll NSW Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 50 (+11) L/NP 50 (-11) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Nielsen Poll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 51 (0) L/NP 49 (0) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Nielsen Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 (+12) L/NP 51 (-12) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Nielsen Poll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (+12) L/NP 48 (-12) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Nielsen Poll WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (+2) L/NP 52 (-2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 52s

    The #Nielsen Poll tables: http://bit.ly/18W2JRr #auspol

  15. [I’ve also read that “the cure” might also be with “mother nature”. Like most viruses that we all deal with they seem to weaken over time due to atural resistance building in the population.]
    WTF?

    What about vaccination and immunisation!?

  16. The Libs seem to have a major problem with women and young people under 40.

    I’m not sure Abbott has any ammunition to fire that would turn around those perceptions.

  17. Well this sums up why the Coalition are running attack ads against Rudd!

    My favourite is this:

    Has firm grasp of foreign policy?

    Rudd 73: Abbott:39

  18. Rudd leads by 10% on “grasp of economic policy”.

    That’s the election right there.

    If Rudd convinces electorate he has better economic ideas Labor will win.

  19. Applying the State x State scores reported by Nielsen, Labor win with 79 seats (80 if Melbourne returns from the Greens).

  20. [Showsy,

    Psephos covered off those options by talking about a cure in the next decade.]
    Well it sure as hell ain’t gonna cure itself.

  21. 140

    Not hard. Rudd has a history in foreign policy and famously speaks Mandarin. Abbott, not so much.

  22. [My favourite is this:

    Has firm grasp of foreign policy?

    Rudd 73: Abbott:39]

    He’s certainly got more travel experience thats for sure.

    The Prime Ministerial jet will be burning Carbon Credits like there is no tomorrow if Rudd wins government again.

  23. [Applying the State x State scores reported by Nielsen, Labor win with 79 seats (80 if Melbourne returns from the Greens).]
    We have a ball game on our hands.

    Can Rudd overcome the unpopularity of his party?
    Can the Liberals overcome the unpopularity of their leader?

  24. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Nielsen Poll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (+12) L/NP 48 (-12) #auspol

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