Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,530 comments on “Nielsen: 50-50”

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  1. gg
    what a sour grape comment

    u would know very well that the poll would of been at the end stage,

    why do u persist with your sour grapes u are nearly on your own with this now

    and such a well educated person and a labor member

    will you be turning in your member ship soon

    sour lemons don’t suit you or the occassion

  2. Psephos
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 10:50 pm | PERMALINK
    I’m now a third of the way through doing the detailed results of the Pakistani elections. With 272 seats, and about 20 candidates per seat, it’s a lot of tabulating.


  3. confessions

    yes i know – up instantly after screening. public money well spent. program is too ethnocentric, not enough analytic answers, and some assumptions such as boat travel to continent first time are highly controversial. but great visuals of some important sites.

  4. “@mikebairdMP: Ok @barryofarrell can we call a public holiday if we get these 20 runs or do we lobby @KRuddMP? Love the fight whatever the result #Ashes”

  5. [ Let the ALP self-implode, push them to beg Kevin to return, make them look smug and incompetent with old-Kevin ads and then bring Turbull back to finish them off. ]

    Yes, I wondered the same thing. However, read Andrew Elder’s blog – he simply doesn’t believe the LNP are smart enough to have come up with this as a strategy!

  6. zoidlord re:British Conservatives failing in plain packaging

    “Tories don’t have balls.”

    They do so! Go to any Philip Morris executive, they’ll open the office humidor and show you!

  7. btw lo fucking l at the people claiming Abbott’s dire unpopularity is all just part of the Liberal Campaign plot to reTurnbull.

    Yeah, right. And the ALP kept Julia in for so long because she’d make Kevin look good.

  8. First Footprint is stunning.

    The sheer emotion of the woman recalling her grand parent.

    His place, her time, overwhelming.

  9. [Greens leader Christine Milne flags opposing Rudd carbon move]

    Well I think this is actually a positive for Rudd Labor as it makes it seem like they are really doing something significant and tough.

  10. Newspoll – SA State April/June

    56-44 2PP

    ALP 32, Lib 44, Nat 1, Greens 10

    Weatherill: Satisified 47, Dissatisfied 35
    Marshall: Satisified 41, Dissatisfied 20

    Better Premier: Weatherill 41, Marshall 30

  11. As a Pom, that was sweet. Had 20 years of hostile aggression over The Ashes, boot’s on the other foot, so to speak now. Barracking rights I think it’s referred to

  12. Rudd has done a great job muddying the Coalitions dog whistle boat non-policy, creating some doubt, confusion and forcing them to become even more risky.

    Still needs a second line of attack to knock them off balance again at some point.

  13. Thomas Paine: the ABC said tonight that there will be a policy announcement on asylum seekers in the coming week.

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