Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a more coastal orientation along the southern half of the Sunshine Coast. Caboolture and Bribie Island have been the constants of the electorate amid frequently changing boundaries, which have variously appended the electorate’s core either with outer northern Brisbane suburbs or semi-rural hinterland. The former was most evident when the boundaries encompassed the coastal suburb of Deception Bay at the time of the 2007 election, which was the only occasion thus far when the seat has been won by Labor. This area was transferred to Petrie in the redistribution before the 2010 election, with Longman regaining the Woodford and D’Aguilar area it had temporarily lost to Fisher.
Longman had a notional Liberal margin of 1.6% on its creation at the 1996 election, to which the party’s candidate Mal Brough added a further 10.0% in the context of a disastrous result for Labor throughout Queensland. Brough was nonetheless lucky to survive the 1998 election after a 1.6% redistribution shift and a 9.1% swing back to Labor left him with only 0.5% to spare. After picking up successive swings of 1.8% in 2001 and 5.2% in 2004, Brough’s margin was pegged back by redistribution to 6.6% going into the 2007 election. By this time Brough had emerged as a senior figure in the Howard government, serving progressively as Employment Services Minister from 2001 to 2004, Assistant Treasurer and Revenue Minister from 2004 to 2006, and Families and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs from 2006 until the Howard government’s defeat a year later. His profile was considerably raised by the latter role, in which he oversaw the government’s sweeping intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities.
Longman gave Labor one of its most rewarding victories of the 2007 election when Brough was dumped by a 10.3% swing, which was notably more concentrated in low-income Caboolture than the more affluent Bribie Island. Labor’s winning candidate was Jon Sullivan, who had served the area in state parliament from 1989 as member for Glass House and Caboolture, before losing the latter seat to One Nation in 1998. The exchange of urban for semi-rural territory at the 2010 election reduced the Labor margin from 3.6% to 1.9%, though even the pre-redistribution margin would have been insufficient against the 3.8% swing Sullivan suffered amid an election result which cost Labor seven of its 15 Queensland seats. His cause was not aided by a late campaign gaffe committed during a public forum broadcast on ABC Radio, in which he drew jeers from the audience after responding critically to a question posed by the father of a disabled child.
The LNP’s victory was especially noteworthy in returning a candidate who at 20 years of age was the youngest person ever elected to an Australian parliament. Wyatt Roy had won preselection at a local party ballot the previous March, at which time the seat was not considered one the party had much cause to be optimistic about. A University of Queensland student, electorate officer to state Glass House MP Andrew Powell and president of the Sunshine Coast Young Liberal National Party, Roy reportedly impressed party members with his pitch at the preselection meeting, and performed well in subsequent media appearances. His win in the ballot ahead of former Caboolture councillor Peter Flannery and local businessman Steve Attrill was confirmed by the party’s state council, despite criticism from Mal Brough who queried how such a candidate would connect with the the electorate’s “large component of veterans and seniors”.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Michael Caisley, an organiser with the Left faction United Voice union (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union). Meanwhile, Mal Brough will be seeking to return to politics as LNP candidate for the electorate’s northern neighbour, Fisher.
No – it was Starc
Congratulations to PM Rudd.
The Ruddster has done something that seriously may pay dividends on election day by getting rid of…Christine Milne’s carbon tax.
Rudd knows, so does Bowen, they don’t have to be told:
Keep away from the Greens, they’re bad news!
Briefly 1891
Abbott’s facial language suggests a deeply troubled, possibly unwell man. On Faine this week he boxed like a man against the ropes, content to just soak up the punches. For the first 12 rounds he was ahead on points, but the last two rounds he has weakened dramatically and his opponent is circling. As he enters the last round Abbott’s only goal is to stay on his feet and hope his points advantage will see him through. But he knows that his points advantage is evaporating rapidly. He’s punch drunk, against the ropes, staring at electoral defeat. And he’s no Muhammad Ali.
[TA must have that horrible sinking feeling. Voters cannot stand him and there’s nothing he can do in just a few weeks to change his persona. He will be the cause of their defeat. Excellent result.]
That’s horribly premature.
scrapping carbon probably mistake … it was one gillard win. but really bringing forward ets no such big deal … anyway sorry that issue well canvassed here. i’m tired of party politics
@geoffrey/1897
No idea yet.
Player One, the MRRT raises very little revenue so scrapping it would not cost much. Considering that coal mines are being closed because they are losing money, the iron ore price is likely to drop significantly in the coming 2-3 years, and it does not apply to other metals, there is every chance the MRRT will never bring in anything much other than what it might raise from CSG.
The RSPT concept was ridiculous. Hopefully it will never surface again.
There are probably better ways to tax mining income, but this cannot really be dealt with without the collaboration of the states and a review of how company tax also affects returns to mining.
centre
ok you’re right — so long as it was greens idea. heard business wanted it?????
[There are probably better ways to tax mining income]
Why not just have tac brackets for corporate tax like income tax?
I do believe we’ve had peak Abbott, but the big question now is, do we have Honeymoon Rudd?
Labor have eased in the betting from $3.10 to $3.25.
I don’t like it, I just don’t like it at all! 😐
The Ruddsters on PB have replaced the Gillard groupies who were all proved wrong and I forgive them for not declaring here on PB unanimously : “Mick you were right all along”. Now the level of underestimation of Abbott by the Ruddsters is astounding considering the way he ground Kev rapidly into the dirt last time and kept Gillard on the ropes for 3 years after she got to the election in 2010 just as the honeymoon ran out. Rudd is so pompous that he probably believes that going later is better and that will be his downfall, although he’ll be struggling already in a few weeks as the honeymoon loses traction. We can all see “it’s the same old Rudd .. talk talk talk”. Please go late Kev and get beaten more soundly even though it means the electorate having to suffer seeing him on their screens a bit longer (we can turn off).
briefly:
I will feel a lot better about Abbott’s state of mind when he is asked at every press conference about polls and still having the confidence of his partyroom.
Geoffrey
Rudd has consulted with business groups regarding the carbon price. They wanted it expedited to a floating price as soon as practical and that’s what they will get.
Business should be siding with Labor, they think Abbott’s PPL sucks!
@Mick77/1911
Abbott has been talking for 3 years now.
I think Rudd has done less talking than he has.
Mick77 you forget that the electorate now no Abbott very well. And what they see they definitely dont like.
Centre 1910
I think the bookies are saying what I am: the honeymoon’s over Kev … and this is the best you could do? Gotta love it, the final demise of a pompous idiot.
Business want some changes to FWA as a first priority. Neither side is doing anything about that.
1915 no Abbott = know Abbott. Possibly a Freudian slip.
[1903
Rossmore
Briefly 1891
Abbott’s facial language suggests a deeply troubled, possibly unwell man. On Faine this week he boxed like a man against the ropes, content to just soak up the punches. For the first 12 rounds he was ahead on points, but the last two rounds he has weakened dramatically and his opponent is circling. As he enters the last round Abbott’s only goal is to stay on his feet and hope his points advantage will see him through. But he knows that his points advantage is evaporating rapidly. He’s punch drunk, against the ropes, staring at electoral defeat. And he’s no Muhammad Ali.]
I haven’t seen Abbott on-screen lately, but he must surely be running out of energy for this now. Meanwhile, Rudd is looking like the live-wire of 2007 and is doing the same thing to Abbott that he did to Howard: stealing the ground beneath Abbott’s feet. Of course, Abbott is no Howard. Whatever my own doubts about Rudd, he has obviously got Abbott’s measure this time.
Centre – I don’t think Rudd is going to immediately lose the support he’s gotten back, but the calls of Labor pushing ahead 52-48 and better are very premature and quite silly.
It’s line ball, and I honestly think the rise rise rise is unsustainable. Hence my belief that Rudd needs to go to the polls ASAP.
The people now expecting Rudd to waltz in, Abbott to roll over are probably the same people who predicted Gillard would increase Labor’s majority in 2010 because polls 5 weeks out had her leading 55-45.
[ “Mick you were right all along”. ]
Lets see how you go then.
Time is running out and Labor has the wind in the final quarter.
One thing for sure. libs are not happy chappies tonight.
They have that old feeling that its all slipping away.
Lets see how abbott handles the blow torch.
Rossmore
The electorate has never liked Abbott, and neither do I particularly, so that says a lot about the leaders that Labor has thrown up. Really after all this fanfare and circus, Rudd has squeaked a 50/50 against a disliked Abbott. Where to now as Rudd starts to deflate/implode?
[confessions
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 9:22 pm | PERMALINK
briefly:
I will feel a lot better about Abbott’s state of mind when he is asked at every press conference about polls and still having the confidence of his partyroom.]
He most certainly will be if he is 10% behind in the polls for 3 years and has people in his caucus calling for him to go, be replaced, resign or criticising his performance*
* sound familiar?
[1912
confessions
briefly:
I will feel a lot better about Abbott’s state of mind when he is asked at every press conference about polls and still having the confidence of his partyroom.]
That would be a viewing delight!
This from earlier today:
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 7h
So. Tony’s future, if he remains in job, will be strongly influenced by tomorrow’s Nielsen. Don’t blame me, I didn’t invent the rules.]
[sound familiar?]
Very familiar.
I want Abbott to experience the same thing.
Mick77
As I said, I don’t like it, don’t like it at all.
Seriously 😎
For those who have constantly asked, we’ll know now, which holds more weight, Polls v Betting?
I don’t see how Abbott or Coalition Party change leaders, it makes no difference to their tactics on Labor.
Momentum Mick77, momentum.
Can Pattinson get 98 too?
On the betting odds thing, there might be some laying off going on from people who backed Labor at 9-1 or so, just guaranteeing themselves a profit by taking the Coalition now.
Siddle gone this time.
Some people on Twitter expecting Newspoll. I’m not. They seem to think because it was out two weeks in a row it is weekly now.
Thanks Dave – all past insults are forgotten and I look forward, when Rudd loses soundly, to your repeated comment:
[“Mick you were right all along”]
I honestly can’t see how Rudd can go up from here; this is absolute peak Rudd imho .. ok imo
Gloryc
I disagree strongly regarding the election date. I’m more than happy to leave it to Rudd as I’ve said on numerous occasions.
If I had a say personally, I’d prefer him to go late actually.
Why?
Because he’s good at the job and the longer he’s there, the more people can notice 😎
KB @ 1933
NO!
Those who are predicting a Rudd implosion remind me of all those who have been waiting for an Abbott implosion. Both have made the error of under-estimating their targets.
While neither is likely to “crack”, Abbott is a tired number now and Rudd has the advantage of fresh energy. He has certainly captured a lot of positive attention, much to the chagrin of the LNP, who really cannot stand him.
Kevin Bonham 1933 possibly, but wouldn’t this be counterbalanced by those who have backed the LNP at much shorter odds now getting on to the ALP to reduce their losses?
I wonder whether someone told Ash to bat conservatively and stay in?
If he had played at the same run rate as the first innings he would have scored about 70 from his 71 balls (or 55/56 more) which would mean we would have only 23 to go now….
Let the boy bat I say!
It is extraordinary that Australia was favourite to win at Centrebet on Saturday night with still over 200 to get. These fourth innings chases for over 300 succeed maybe once every 10 years.
Good evening.
So all Abbott attacks before today’s announcement on bringing ETS on have failed.
Proof positive Boats no longer an issue. 🙂
I don’t think Rudd will ‘implode’. I just think his shine will wear off in terms of being capable of WINNING the election, if he leaves it to late September/October.
Well I wonder if Turnbull will ensure the momentum continues to go Rudd’s way? 😉
Did I see Rudd asking the Cuban ambassador for his boss to send some Cuban cigars? Can anyone confirm?
Mick77@1934
You need to learn to discern sarcasm.
We will soon know how all this ends.
I like the sounds of tories being trashed in the polls.
But lets not get ahead of ourselves. Just enjoy their discomfort, for now.
[New2This
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 9:41 pm | PERMALINK
Did I see Rudd asking the Cuban ambassador for his boss to send some Cuban cigars? Can anyone confirm?]
Rudd might get stopped by an US Border Protection Officer if that is the case!
[Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01 31m
So will Agar now get himself a blonde bimbo, a range of tatts and his own brand of undies, or will he remain human ? I suspect the latter…]
That question about Abbott being desperate at that presser is born out now.
Abbott knows he cannot win campaigns. Question is do his party or have they bought their own myth of Abbott the great campaigner
Mick
The bookies, money bet and opinions of those who act with their pocket, may be saying just that – we’re seeing peak honeymoon Rudd?
Centre
A nervous leader usually goes late (howard, Keating) and it never works, so I believe rudd will do likewise particularly because of his ego. I’ll just have to pull the plug out of the tele until election night. There’s a limit to how much earwax eating I can watch before dinner.