Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a more coastal orientation along the southern half of the Sunshine Coast. Caboolture and Bribie Island have been the constants of the electorate amid frequently changing boundaries, which have variously appended the electorate’s core either with outer northern Brisbane suburbs or semi-rural hinterland. The former was most evident when the boundaries encompassed the coastal suburb of Deception Bay at the time of the 2007 election, which was the only occasion thus far when the seat has been won by Labor. This area was transferred to Petrie in the redistribution before the 2010 election, with Longman regaining the Woodford and D’Aguilar area it had temporarily lost to Fisher.
Longman had a notional Liberal margin of 1.6% on its creation at the 1996 election, to which the party’s candidate Mal Brough added a further 10.0% in the context of a disastrous result for Labor throughout Queensland. Brough was nonetheless lucky to survive the 1998 election after a 1.6% redistribution shift and a 9.1% swing back to Labor left him with only 0.5% to spare. After picking up successive swings of 1.8% in 2001 and 5.2% in 2004, Brough’s margin was pegged back by redistribution to 6.6% going into the 2007 election. By this time Brough had emerged as a senior figure in the Howard government, serving progressively as Employment Services Minister from 2001 to 2004, Assistant Treasurer and Revenue Minister from 2004 to 2006, and Families and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs from 2006 until the Howard government’s defeat a year later. His profile was considerably raised by the latter role, in which he oversaw the government’s sweeping intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities.
Longman gave Labor one of its most rewarding victories of the 2007 election when Brough was dumped by a 10.3% swing, which was notably more concentrated in low-income Caboolture than the more affluent Bribie Island. Labor’s winning candidate was Jon Sullivan, who had served the area in state parliament from 1989 as member for Glass House and Caboolture, before losing the latter seat to One Nation in 1998. The exchange of urban for semi-rural territory at the 2010 election reduced the Labor margin from 3.6% to 1.9%, though even the pre-redistribution margin would have been insufficient against the 3.8% swing Sullivan suffered amid an election result which cost Labor seven of its 15 Queensland seats. His cause was not aided by a late campaign gaffe committed during a public forum broadcast on ABC Radio, in which he drew jeers from the audience after responding critically to a question posed by the father of a disabled child.
The LNP’s victory was especially noteworthy in returning a candidate who at 20 years of age was the youngest person ever elected to an Australian parliament. Wyatt Roy had won preselection at a local party ballot the previous March, at which time the seat was not considered one the party had much cause to be optimistic about. A University of Queensland student, electorate officer to state Glass House MP Andrew Powell and president of the Sunshine Coast Young Liberal National Party, Roy reportedly impressed party members with his pitch at the preselection meeting, and performed well in subsequent media appearances. His win in the ballot ahead of former Caboolture councillor Peter Flannery and local businessman Steve Attrill was confirmed by the party’s state council, despite criticism from Mal Brough who queried how such a candidate would connect with the the electorate’s “large component of veterans and seniors”.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Michael Caisley, an organiser with the Left faction United Voice union (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union). Meanwhile, Mal Brough will be seeking to return to politics as LNP candidate for the electorate’s northern neighbour, Fisher.
“@PaulBongiorno: Prediction: The Nielsen Poll is very badness for Tony Abbott.”
[I wonder whether someone told Ash to bat conservatively and stay in?]
Of course they did. How else to explain the stark difference in approach between his first and second innings efforts?
‘Abbott can’t win campaigns’ isn’t really accurate. If we’re talking purely the election campaign in 2010, Abbott won it.
Dee:
Perhaps MT has already started with his comments today. 😉
New2This and a bottle of Remy Martin XO Cognac from the French Ambassador?
glory
Wrong. Ineptitude and sabotage lost Labor that campaign. Not Abbott skill in campaigning.
Mick
Seriously though, Abbott must be exposed properly and that will take some time.
[1904
gloryconsequence
TA must have that horrible sinking feeling. Voters cannot stand him and there’s nothing he can do in just a few weeks to change his persona. He will be the cause of their defeat. Excellent result.
That’s horribly premature.]
Well, the LNP have nothing to run with. They cannot run on debt/deficit (note TA’s no-show at the Press Club); they cannot run on tax cuts; they cannot run on social policies (except to oppose things the public quite like); they cannot run on leadership; they cannot win on carbon or refugees.
Wot will they put to the voters?
When people get the chance to bury all the malice and division of the last few years, the chances have to be very high that they will chose the sunshine offered by Labor rather than the doubts and emptiness of the LNP.
Nielsen is not a reliable poll, but if Essential 50/50 tomorrow then goodbye Tony.
Ash’s Ashes average is 56.0
Ash’s First class average is 56.0
Ash’s Test average is 56.0
Dave
[You need to learn to discern sarcasm.]
You got a strange sense of sarcasm. Saying to me I was right all along regarding Gillard, when I was, isn’t sarcasm and again I look forward to a repeat comment when I’m right about’s rudd’s demise at the elections.
[sohar
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 9:48 pm | PERMALINK
Nielsen is not a reliable poll,]
Huh?
[ but if Essential 50/50 tomorrow then goodbye Tony.]
Huh?
Centre 1902
____________
You never give up with your obsessional hatred of the Green do you…..
I live in a marginal seat where the Greens prefs are vital to a labor MP’s victory
He wouldn’t share your extreme views and will be on great love-in terms with the Greens
briefly – you’re forgetting 1) media, 2) the fickleness of the electorate at present
[Nielsen is not a reliable poll, but if Essential 50/50 tomorrow then goodbye Tony.]
That doesn’t really make any sense
sohar
For varios reasons at this stage all polls are not reliable.
They all tighten up on reliability the closer the election date gets. Thus today’s polls are more reliable than six months ago
[Rudd might get stopped by an US Border Protection Officer if that is the case!]
Rudd is in the US? Not sure this is good timing. Does this mean Albo is Acting PM again??
Kevin 747 can wait until after the election. I don’t think we need this reminding folk of the endless travel in his first term so close to the election.
ML, As Essential turns like the Titanic, a move to 50/50 is enormous, while Nielsen is all over the place.
deblonay
I don’t hate the Greens.
I like making fun of them and rightfully so. It’s one of life’s great pleasures 😆
[1959
sohar
Nielsen is not a reliable poll…]
Not really. Nielsen are usually as close as any other. This affirms the results of other findings. I’m curious to know what Reachtel find. They are usually more pro-LNP than anyone.
Briefly, 1958, to be fair Abbott is offering a return to the Howard years, and trying to make having ‘no policies’ a policy virtue. But beats me how that could be an election winning formula.
i would say its just the beginning of the rudd ride to the top
the bogans don’t understand the difference between ets and carbon price,
I can hear,,,, gggeee rudd got rid of her tax
they don’t understand the mechanism
so id say the vote will go up
and what will tony do with his pamphlet his little red book
full of carbon tax is bad
lloooolkkk u know what I mean its just all bad
well now it not there all than energy kissing fish
and working in shops ironing that rubbishy stunts for
nothing, the rug was well and truly pulled out from under,
peta must be fuming she has spent years telling him what to say and for nothing no carbon price
what great karma
so ditch the witch all the rallies, and shock jock shows
he was going to get rid of the carbon price tax
but some one got in before him moved to an ets
and left the tax thresh hold as it is,
lol poor tone
[glory
Wrong. Ineptitude and sabotage lost Labor that campaign. Not Abbott skill in campaigning.]
I disagree. Abbott was supremely disciplined and stayed on message, stubbornly so. Labor imploded, but Abbott clearly won the campaign
5 weeks before the election, Labor led 55-45, and 70% of people thought Labor would win.
Based on what actually occured, I’d suggest Abbott won the campaign. He couldn’t negotiate to save himself though
Centre
[Abbott must be exposed properly and that will take some time]
Abbott is an open book, wysiwyg, and the electorate knows exactly who he is after 4 years. In this respect he’s more palatable than Rudd or Gillard and the fact that Rudd with everything going for him at this point can’t get ahead of him tells me it’s curtains for Kevvie. Abbott is 2-0 so far against Rudd-Gillard and I predict a comfortable win this time to go 3-0.
[Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01 31m
So will Agar now get himself a blonde bimbo, a range of tatts and his own brand of undies, or will he remain human ? I suspect the latter…]
Love it. We can only hope for the latter, but I am not holding my breath giving the conformity pressure of Aussie cricket.
Can you imagine Tubby Taylor with tats, undies or a bimbo? How things change from the olden days of Waughs and Taylors.
my say
Well put
I think people are getting ahead of themselves somewhat. It will probably take more than a couple of weeks if 50/50 results to force Abbott out. After all it took two years of much worse polling to see the end of JGPM.
Mick77@1961
I have you biting every line I dangle tonight.
Things have been all your way and abbotts for yonks, but the pressure is back on him, and you.
I don’t know how this will all end. Neither do you, but the libs are on the back foot tonight.
Born to rule? Pigs arse!
[1964
gloryconsequence
briefly – you’re forgetting 1) media, 2) the fickleness of the electorate at present]
In what way is the electorate fickle? They have been remarkably consistent for years and years. Nothing in the current polls was unpredictable. What makes it likely they will suddenly change again?
Haddin doing well.
What if…what if…
Saw the anti-Rudd ad on the TV earlier.
To me it was annoying and idiotic and made me want to punch the man doing the condescending voice-over.
As for effectiveness, by itself it probably won’t be that effective. Nobody watching that ad will change their minds, but saturate the airwaves with that ad and others similar (which the Coalition can afford), it runs the risk of sinking in. To use an analogy, it’s not a sharp ad for cutting ad Rudd, it’s a blunt one for beating him with.
However, it can be deflected. Best attitude to take is that similar to 2007, where the Coalition used similar hysterical negativity and Rudd took the “Are these people for real? You’d think the sky was falling, judging by their rhetoric!” somewhat mocking and defusing attitude.
One thing Labor should not do is respond in kind. If Labor race the Coalition to the bottom, then the Coalition will win by experience.
glory
You are ignoring the impact of the Labor campaign. Hewson, Kennett, Howard et al would have won the campaign and thus a majority.
Yes the Labor campaign was that bad. It took real skill by Team Abbott not to win
Nielsen lost some credibility after its famous 57 TPP on election eve 2007. Since then, they’ve over compensated and are probably a bit too generous to the Libs.
Looking at one poll is of course silly as it is the bludger track that counts!
@Mick77/1974
You’ve been ramping up your posts over last week or so.
That tells.
@davidwh/1977
Me thinks Abbott won’t go, but if he does go, might be too late.
@Carey/1981
Ads to me don’t seem to carry the same meaning, there is only so many times you can do this.
[1977
davidwh
I think people are getting ahead of themselves somewhat. It will probably take more than a couple of weeks if 50/50 results to force Abbott out. After all it took two years of much worse polling to see the end of JGPM.]
davidwh, I think there is just about no chance that TA will be dropped. The only alternative, Turnbull, is unlikely to challenge and even more unlikely to get the numbers, considering how much the right-wing detest him.
Even if he were to take the leadership, there would be no certainty he would win the election. Mind you, they are seriously aching for a win this time, so anything is possible.
and daren
my two favourites Boon and Border
o those days with kids at home , loving
one day cricket
it was actually a very binding family time
our baby then now 33 would run up an down the hallway ,
during day night matches,, saying I am david boon
come on bowl to me,
we suddenly realised at 5 he could add up, he was adding each run and then saying the score so cricket taught him maths I know where boon is but I wonder about border
in my humble opinion the best captain my lifetime
Well ads don’t win elections, interaction with voters does. The purpose of the ads is not to win the election but to create doubt about Rudd, so that Abbott’s “anything but this government” line can pick up steam again.
@bbctms: Australia have gone past the record for most runs for the 10th wicket across both innings of a Test. It was 189 by Australia in 1924.
davidwh@1977
Thats how it should go.
Lets see if it does.
The problem is that its all turned to crap so quickly for the tories. How can they, indeed can they cut through.
Have people stopped listening to abbott?
Not much time to change or even debate any change.
Abbott has the harrassed look of a seming winner turned loser
Question..?.will the Libs make the jump and go for Turnbull…or is it too late for them?
I suspect the latter
I think we need another 30 second ad with Rudd saying ‘Over the past few weeks, the Coalition led by Mr Abbott have created advertisements about my record as Prime Minister. You’ve probably seen them. I’m here to raise the standards of politics in our country, and if you re-elect me as your Prime Minister I will continue to keep unemployment low, intetest rates low, develop key infrastructure projects like the NBN, and implement the Better Schools framework. I have a positive plan for the future, and I am keen for all Australians to compare our plans with those of Mr Abbott’.
That’d cut through like the proverbial mofo.
Will Ghost who Votes give us the Nielson in the next few hours ?
Mick 77 better pull down the shutters and hide under the bed if it’s bad for the Mad Monk…who might soon appeal for Cardinal Pell’s prayers
[Based on what actually occured, I’d suggest Abbott won the campaign.]
“Winning campaigns” is cold comfort if you don’t win office. I’d argue that most politicians campaign to win high office, particularly leaders of the opposition.
Make no mistake, Abbott is campaigning to be PM, not to win some sort of political strategy game where he “wins a campaign”, my love.
[After all it took two years of much worse polling to see the end of JGPM.]
True, but only because of the ambivalence of Caucus members to have her successor back again as leader.
Is there the same ambivalence towards MT in the Liberals?
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/
briefly
have a read of Andrew elder you both think alike
1991
gloryconsequence
I reckon you’re right. People are completely sick of negative political messages, so the “sunshine on the horizon” story will do very well.
[Will Ghost who Votes give us the Nielson in the next few hours ?]
Ghost has already delivered.
I missed It. but oh told me howard is in the add for the ashes
now how would that come about,, he is there I noticed him the night before last
1995
my say
Thanks, my say, I will heed your advice 🙂
Trend of Nielsen June 13-16 to Nielsen now.
2PP ALP +7
PPM Rudd +23
PM netsat +33
LOTO netsat -6