Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a more coastal orientation along the southern half of the Sunshine Coast. Caboolture and Bribie Island have been the constants of the electorate amid frequently changing boundaries, which have variously appended the electorate’s core either with outer northern Brisbane suburbs or semi-rural hinterland. The former was most evident when the boundaries encompassed the coastal suburb of Deception Bay at the time of the 2007 election, which was the only occasion thus far when the seat has been won by Labor. This area was transferred to Petrie in the redistribution before the 2010 election, with Longman regaining the Woodford and D’Aguilar area it had temporarily lost to Fisher.
Longman had a notional Liberal margin of 1.6% on its creation at the 1996 election, to which the party’s candidate Mal Brough added a further 10.0% in the context of a disastrous result for Labor throughout Queensland. Brough was nonetheless lucky to survive the 1998 election after a 1.6% redistribution shift and a 9.1% swing back to Labor left him with only 0.5% to spare. After picking up successive swings of 1.8% in 2001 and 5.2% in 2004, Brough’s margin was pegged back by redistribution to 6.6% going into the 2007 election. By this time Brough had emerged as a senior figure in the Howard government, serving progressively as Employment Services Minister from 2001 to 2004, Assistant Treasurer and Revenue Minister from 2004 to 2006, and Families and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs from 2006 until the Howard government’s defeat a year later. His profile was considerably raised by the latter role, in which he oversaw the government’s sweeping intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities.
Longman gave Labor one of its most rewarding victories of the 2007 election when Brough was dumped by a 10.3% swing, which was notably more concentrated in low-income Caboolture than the more affluent Bribie Island. Labor’s winning candidate was Jon Sullivan, who had served the area in state parliament from 1989 as member for Glass House and Caboolture, before losing the latter seat to One Nation in 1998. The exchange of urban for semi-rural territory at the 2010 election reduced the Labor margin from 3.6% to 1.9%, though even the pre-redistribution margin would have been insufficient against the 3.8% swing Sullivan suffered amid an election result which cost Labor seven of its 15 Queensland seats. His cause was not aided by a late campaign gaffe committed during a public forum broadcast on ABC Radio, in which he drew jeers from the audience after responding critically to a question posed by the father of a disabled child.
The LNP’s victory was especially noteworthy in returning a candidate who at 20 years of age was the youngest person ever elected to an Australian parliament. Wyatt Roy had won preselection at a local party ballot the previous March, at which time the seat was not considered one the party had much cause to be optimistic about. A University of Queensland student, electorate officer to state Glass House MP Andrew Powell and president of the Sunshine Coast Young Liberal National Party, Roy reportedly impressed party members with his pitch at the preselection meeting, and performed well in subsequent media appearances. His win in the ballot ahead of former Caboolture councillor Peter Flannery and local businessman Steve Attrill was confirmed by the party’s state council, despite criticism from Mal Brough who queried how such a candidate would connect with the the electorate’s “large component of veterans and seniors”.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Michael Caisley, an organiser with the Left faction United Voice union (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union). Meanwhile, Mal Brough will be seeking to return to politics as LNP candidate for the electorate’s northern neighbour, Fisher.
“Tony, it’s Peta here. Present yourself at HQ at 0600 SHARP tomorrow!”
[replacing Abbott would be a lot easier if the polls asked the Turnbull question. They asked the Rudd question when JG was PM.]
It felt as though it was almost every poll with Gillard, each one of them used to churn out more leadershit stories each week.
I’m also surprised they aren’t asking about alternate Liberal leaders. It’s way past time now.
[ As to the suggestions from a couple of now Rummelesque pathologically-bonded-to-JG-as-leader posters here that Rudd is destroying this JG legacy by bringing forward the ETS, I say crap and bullshit and grow up. ]
You’re missing the point psyclaw – deliberately, I assume.
It is not about “destroying JG’s legacy”, it is about the very real risk that Rudd will now be portrayed by the media, or perceived by the electorate, as backing down on the carbon tax – again!
Why on earth has he gone near this issue, when it was fairly well neutralized … and was perhaps even a net positive for Labor? The carbon tax is something the electorate supports – despite Abbott’s best efforts to the contrary.
If this needless backdown by Labor backfires, Rudd will look like a complete idiot.
Preferred PM is Rudd 55, Abbott 41.
That means there are 16 people (out of every 100) that said they won’t vote for Labor but prefer Rudd, and Abbott has people who will vote for his own party that prefer the other bloke!
A few votes to be grabbed in that lot.
[Rudd will look like a complete idiot]
Rudd IS a complete idiot whereas Gillard was just dumb.
This is peak Rudd and from here it’s all downhill as Abbott tears him apart.
The libs have blown a heap of money of those ads.
Nielson has confirmed what they don’t want to know , ie voters don’t want to touch abbott.
Their best hope is probably turnbull now – but they probably won’t go there.
You can almost hear them. “HTF did this all happen! We were almost home.”
Plan B is to get really nasty, which probably won’t work any better.
tuthie – another 3 long years out of power :kiss:
@Mick77/1855
And Abbott is just dumber.
[Plan B is to get really nasty, which probably won’t work any better.]
Surely Plan B is to do policy.
Or is it too late for that with an election potentially weeks away?
Mick77
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 8:40 pm | Permalink
Rudd will look like a complete idiot
Rudd IS a complete idiot whereas Gillard was just dumb.
This is peak Rudd and from here it’s all downhill as Abbott tears him apart.
——————————————–
every week since Rudd became PM — its been “this is peak Rudd”…boring…
[sam @Bad_Cat_ 1m
Why is Ronan Keating bowling? #ashes]
😆
[ This is peak Rudd and from here it’s all downhill as Abbott tears him apart. ]
All very desperate.
Its slipping away. Soon panic will set in.
[1852
confessions
replacing Abbott would be a lot easier if the polls asked the Turnbull question.]
Turnbull probably does not want the job right now. He disagrees with LNP stance on refugees and climate change, and knows their economic policies are worthless. If TA loses, Turnbull can run for the leadership. If he were to win the leadership in this situation, that would change the whole outlook for policy in some vital areas.
Well I thought Rudd’s electoral appeal was beginning to wane slightly prior to the change over due to I guess public fatigue with Labor, and because holding off of the change to their preference for so long.
They got used to changing their favour to the Libs.
Rudd needs to get those young voters registered and on board in increasing numbers as well as attending to his usual campaign.
He doesn’t want to get bogged down arguing points with Abbott via the media.
[Lisa Wilkinson @Lisa_Wilkinson 4m
It’s been a while, but tomorrow morning @TonyAbbottMHR joins me on @thetodayshow at 7am. Much to discuss. #auspol]
Very good signs for Labor. But let’s not beat around the bush – did anyone NOT expect things to return to 50-50?
I think people need to stop counting their chickens in terms of WINNING.
[If we called the carbon price an octopus would that make it not an ETS?]
If Gillard said “there will be no octopus under I government I lead,” and then she introduced an ETS but agreed that it might be an octopus, that would make it an octopus for political purposes.
But of course…the change around Labor’s fortunes from just a few weeks ago…is massive.
Z
Labor has managed to pick the two worst bunglers as their last two leaders. Abbott is certainly smarter than both of them and this is looking like a repeat of Rudd vs Abbott mid-2010. Can we have a few more backflips Kev … let’s see err maybe mining tax next?
briefly:
I want Abbott to start feeling some pressure, and would love to see him constantly asked at pressers about polls and leadership.
AA
reject my posts .. I said 50/50 was peak Rudd and by end of July he’d be down to 47/53.
reCHECK of course (never reject!)
briefly, it doesn’t matter what Turnbull wants. What matters is the effect of a poll saying he would do much better than Abbott.
I don’t know how much Turnbull differs from Abbott on refugees. He wheeled out Sharman Stone to attack Labor every time a boat arrived (when it was a relatively minor issue). He milked it for what he could get out of it.
[ It felt as though it was almost every poll with Gillard, each one of them used to churn out more leadershit stories each week.
I’m also surprised they aren’t asking about alternate Liberal leaders. It’s way past time now. ]
Yes, I agree. The media were using the polls to destabilize Gillard. They don’t seem interested in doing the same thing to Abbott.
However, I am beginning to think Turnbull has probably left his run too late now anyway.
Paradoxically, he was probably hoping for a stronger honeymoon performance by Rudd. As it is, Rudd hasn’t gained enough ground to be a threat quite yet – at 50-50 a large part of the Noalition will still be thinking they stand a good chance with Abbott.
Unfortunately, they are probably right. Especially with Labor in so much policy chaos – something that just seems to follow Rudd around (as I’m sure Abbott won’t be slow to point out!).
If KR was to declare he would repeal the mining tax (as it is now set up) he would probably win anything up to 4 seats in WA – Hasluck, Swan, Canning and Stirling would all be winnable. Even Cowan would be possible. You never know, even Durack might become winnable.
Had a question about this on Twitter and it might interest some here too.
One possible reason Nielsen get sappy hippy netsats for unpopular leaders and Newspoll get aggressive nasty in-yer-face ones (actually I’m not sure how reliable this trend is in the long term) is that they ask the questions in different ways.
Newspoll:
“ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS (HER) JOB AS (blah)”
Nielsen:
“How strongly do you approve or disapprove of the performance of (blah) as (blah)? Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of (his/her) performance?”
[ Can we have a few more backflips Kev … let’s see err maybe mining tax next? ]
Scoreboard !
libs under
pressureserious pressure in this election cycle for the first time.No policies to bless themselves with, a leader who the electorate don’t want, yet a far more electorally palatable alternative, the libs will not touch.
abbott punching walls tonight for sure.
I thought it would be better than that for Labor.
No no no! Not policies!!
Player One:
You raise good points.
Aaahh the Mining Tax. The tax that did exactly what it was meant to do…tax “super’ profits. Australia missed the boat when Howard did not introduce this type of tax in the mind-1990’s.
We have PRRT that covers the petroleum and gas industry, why should mining companies be exempt?
IF Howard had shown any future planning for Australia we would have a MRRT from 1990’s and have a Sovereign Fund to match that of Norway.
@Mick77/1868
Your posts are exactly why I don’t your posts for granted.
Briefly
If Turnbull is smart he’ll let Rabbott go to the election and hopefully lose.
Not sure that Turnbull has the patience to play the long game.
The boy’s out for 14.
*don’t take.
Ash has gone!!!
[ If KR was to declare he would repeal the mining tax (as it is now set up) he would probably win anything up to 4 seats in WA – Hasluck, Swan, Canning and Stirling would all be winnable. Even Cowan would be possible. You never know, even Durack might become winnable. ]
Yes, you might be correct. Rudd seems willing to abandon his claim to being a “fiscal conservative”, and so would probably be willing to forgo the mining tax income if he thought it would win him enough seats to get across the line.
Unhappy
Ashton played very well and has a solid defence as well as a great attacking game, but defending at all costs did not work. They cannot graft all these runs out. Throw the bat.
Mod Lib@1887
Why so sad, ML?
Dear Tony (or Peta)
I am a qualified plasterer and I am available at short notice to repair any walls that may be damaged.
Reasonable rates.
[1869
confessions
briefly:
I want Abbott to start feeling some pressure, and would love to see him constantly asked at pressers about polls and leadership.]
confessions, I reckon Abbott feels plenty of pressure. He knows he is unpopular and that he faces another defeat. This Nielsen result is especially poor for him because their house effect overstates LNP support. Depending on the rounding, it is probably more like a 51/49 result when the house effect is adjusted. This suggests that support for Rudd is not dissipating but is continuing to build and consolidate.
The LNP must be seriously worried now. They have next to nothing to fight with. The Indonesians have scuppered their refugee “policy”. The carbon “tax” has just been turned into an on-balance winner for Labor. As well, Rudd is now being attacked by the Greens from the left. This will only help him attract votes from the LNP.
TA must have that horrible sinking feeling. Voters cannot stand him and there’s nothing he can do in just a few weeks to change his persona. He will be the cause of their defeat. Excellent result.
Mod Lib@1887
He has still got his career off to a great start.
A very bright future and what a way to ‘arrive’.
I guess
@briefly/1891
I agree.
Unhappier
briefly 1891
I disagree.
how many undecided?
paine
true again
think of the enormity of what rudd has taken on, and his generosity in doing so (now i’ll duck)
Mod Lib
Give us a break.
I didn’t say JG and her colleagues didn’t use the word “tax”. Nor did Psephos for that matter.
We both referred to their careless and in hindsight very naive use of the word “tax” themselves, and acquiescence to use of the word “tax” by others.
So your point is……………….. (Very small)
siddle gone.