New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan this week have pushed Labor over the line into majority territory on both the seat projection and two-party preferred in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The outstanding fact of the present seat projection is that Labor continues to hold the ground where Queensland’s large clump of marginal seats is located. New state breakdowns from Newspoll and Morgan have helped iron out a few quirky results from last week, namely a four-seat loss for Labor in Victoria and a two-seat gain in Western Australia. The state projections in particular should begin to stabilise now that a deeper pool of post-leadership change data is becoming available.
UPDATE: AMR Research has a national online poll of 1107 which turns the tables on the Liberals by showing Labor 51-49 ahead on the present arrangement, but 57-43 behind if Malcolm Turnbull were leader. The primary votes are 42% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens. This is AMR Research’s second foray into national political polling, the first being a poll conducted in March was roughly in line with the polling trend of the time.
UPDATE 2: ReachTEL has published results of a union-commissioned poll of federal and state voting intention in Queensland, which at federal level has Labor on 40.8%, the Coalition on 44.2%, the Greens on 4.4%, Katter’s Australian Party on 3.9% and the Palmer United Party on 4.6%. Applying 2010 election preferences to this, with everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens condensed into “others”, returns a result of 52-48 to the Coalition, a swing of 3% which if uniform would net Labor six seats. The sample size for the poll was 1613. I’ve covered the state aspects of it as an update to my earlier Queensland Newspoll post.
[Toorak Toff
Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 6:10 pm | Permalink
Many young people are not on the rolls apparently. What happened to automatic enrolment?]
Because they often live at home or are sharing accomodation and aren’t easily trackable via utility bills. I, myself, dropped off the electoral roll while living out of the US and since returning have received at least three or four nags in the mail about enrolling. So far no auto-enrollment here, either.
Evening all.
Well, Perth was as awful as I remember it. I don’t know how anyone lives there.
Glad to be back home, even if it is wed and stormy.
Player One
2100
Not sure what you are saying there. Having no papers does not mean acceptance of the arrival’s statement at face value by DIAC. Also, the Refugee Tribunal determinations are available online, and even a cursory look will tell you it is anything but easy for the arrivals. There is a lot of knowledge in DIAC of the internal areas of the source nations and of individuals in persecuted groups so identity, connections etc. can be tested.
[chris murphy @chrismurphys 1h
Appropriately Govt will pay Mr Slipper’s legal bill for now. Let’s hope the forces of evil behind the fake case are made pay #auspol]
Hopefully Gary Gray’s announcement today will set OM onto the trail.
Not holding my breath, however.
In @2072 swamprat wrote:
I don’t mean Russia layed the mines, I mean most of them were probably manufacture by Russia, or China it seems. While the Americans left plenty of unexploded bombs I don’t they mined the place. Most of the mines were deployed in the civil wars that followed.
See Cambodia’s Healing Fields
DTT
[I do not think Gillard achieved either. Now I do not know WHO in the Gillard team permitted/encouraged the appalling Julia at Home show to be allowed. Surely the PM staff could have read the riot act – threatened funding, disemboweling or whatever to stop it.]
Of, FCS, get over it.
You with your stupid this or that theories. Pastel suit wearing “means” I’m gunna challenge ya! Idiocy incarnated.
Charisma this, charisma that. Who gives a right royal stuff, apart from you! Nobody. Nobody cares.
The successful federal challenge in 2010 meant State Qld lost the state election. You were upset. So what! Bligh was never going to win another term. Qld Labor deserved to be booted out.
You’re all cock-a-hoop now that Rudd’s be re-installed (against your better wishes for democracy). Well, be gracious FCS, instead of nitpicking over the ashes.
Who was it running Tony Burke into the ground, day after day? Hey. Who was it? It was you. He wasn’t worthy of a Ministry.
Not even after he’d delivered the Murray Darling Basin agreement. Not worth a bluddy cracker, according to you.
Yet, after Rudd appointed him the real poison chalice of Immigration, you couldn’t bestow enough accolades on him. What a great bloke. Jeez, how did you miss that?
Look at your own prejudices, instead of constantly deriding those who thought Gillard was an excellent premier.
Why don’t you save your bile for Abbott, a clown, who couldn’t even marshall his forces in a minority government to actuate change through legislation?
You’re too busy pulling down a great Labor leader for your own pride. You’re a disgrace to Labor.
jaundiced view
Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 7:27 pm | Permalink
As someone with first hand experience as a refugee I fail to understand how anyone could complain about being held in the safe conditions provided.
The changes that have been initiated over the years have improved conditions for refuges arriving in Australia.
We lived in a camp when we arrived and were happy of the safe conditions. The Govt allocated work, as part of the refugee status a person had to work where they wre told, in the job provided for 2 years – to “repay” the Govt. Doctors, teachers and the like found themselves building railways lines.
To move around, changing address required notification to the AFP. Dad was arrested for failing to notify of change of residence.
No, the conditions on Manus or other camps are far better than the places refugees come from. They have been taught by bleeding hearts to whinge and complain.
[ There is a lot of knowledge in DIAC of the internal areas of the source nations and of individuals in persecuted groups so identity, connections etc. can be tested. ]
Of course. And when their story falls apart … where do you fly them?
Pick a country at random?
confessions
[
Evening all.
Well, Perth was as awful as I remember it. ]
What were the craptacular highlights of your Perth visit ? 🙂
Player One
If someone is fleeing their home nation ostensibly in fear of persecution, and that fear is established as real under UN standards, then they cannot be ‘re-fouled’ – that is returned to their home country under the Convention.
That’s what the worry is with some of the fast-track returns of Sri Lankans, apparently on the say so of the Sri Lankan govt.
JV
[The government comprises which old party? Labor’s shame is that it has abandoned the field to the LNP and the racists on this issue. It is no longer a principled bulwark against extremism having been spooked by a small rabid minority. It has made cruelty bi-partisan – the ‘norm’. Rudd needs to fix that.]
That is so simplistic it is, with respect, wrong.
The Greens have become a one issue party.
Quite bizzarely, the Greens have reduced being “left” to mean an unquestioned support for uncontrolled migration of right-wing homophobic (future Liberal voting) religious people.
Player One
If their story falls apart (and that is about 10% of boat arrivals to date) yes, they are flown back to their home country, because they have failed to establish a genuine fear of persecution. If they do, they are refugees and protected.
confessions
[Glad to be back home, even if it is wed and stormy.]
Are congratulations in order? E’re the marital fighting?
Aussie – There is some truth that people expect to walk up the beach and be handed a towel and a Medicare Card.
[Yet, after Rudd appointed him the real poison chalice of Immigration, you couldn’t bestow enough accolades on him.]
There’s been a bit of that going on here since the leadership change.
It’s been quite amusing to watch. 🙂
Sarah Roberts …
[ You’re all cock-a-hoop now that Rudd’s be re-installed (against your better wishes for democracy). Well, be gracious FCS, instead of nitpicking over the ashes. ]
I find the Ruddiots continual bagging of Gillard quite telling.
Most of the rest of us have already acknowledged that Gillard is gone, and moved on.
Now it’s all about Kevin. Could that be what they are afraid of?
JV
[If someone is fleeing their home nation ostensibly in fear of persecution,]
I think most are fleeing a boring and relatively restricted life in Malaysia/Indonesia. They fled their previous homes for sanctuary in Mal/Indon.
The next step is just a move up.
swamprat
Quite bizzarely, the Greens have reduced being “left” to mean an unquestioned support for uncontrolled migration of right-wing homophobic (future Liberal voting) religious people.]
Wow. Funny how people often don’t realise when they’re being racist.
The whole thing about TPVs is that they never worked. Abbott and Morriscum must know that. TPVs were introduced 20/10/1999. Look at the stats for 1998 to 2002.
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2011-2012/BoatArrivals#AppendB
They had no impact other than to encourage people smugglers to load disposable boats with women and children.
@Player One/2116
I dunno I thought it was all about Abbott to be frank.
JV
Are “right-wing homophobic (future Liberal voting) religious people” a race?
Damn, did not know.
So you cannot disagree with homophobia because that is “rascist”.
Is everything (and nothing) racist?
swamprat
[I think most are fleeing a boring and relatively restricted life in Malaysia/Indonesia. They fled their previous homes for sanctuary in Mal/Indon.
The next step is just a move up.]
Please. That just reflects sheer ignorance. Do you know anything about the circumstances in Malaysia and Indonesia for asylum seekers? Any of us would get on a boat to Australia for the sake of our family if fleeing in fear of our lives and finding the oppression uncertainty, and risk in either of those places.
I’ve just got home and may have missed these being posted:
[TONY Abbott has nudged a kid out of the way during a schoolyard game of footy.
The federal opposition leader, who’s known for his competitive streak, visited a Catholic college in Kevin Rudd’s electorate on Friday.
He spent time on the field with students and had just retired to the sidelines when the ball again caught his eye.
As he charged off again in quick pursuit, a skinny young kid in a wide-brimmed hat got in the way.
With a sidestep to rival Benji Marshall, Mr Abbott nudged the boy aside leaving the student with his hands on his hips and looking slightly miffed.
The visit was marked by another amusing moment as the would-be prime minister posed for photos with students at the library.
Behind the press pack, one of his staffers locked his eyes and fervently pointed to her brilliant smile, like a stage-mum trying to elicit a winning grin from her offspring.]
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/abbott-ventures-into-rudd-homeland/story-e6frfku9-1226678483130#ixzz2Yp417EcZ
Also:
[THE Queensland government hasn’t signed up to the federal government’s education reforms but has left the door open.
Premier Campbell Newman says no deal has been reached yet after meeting with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, federal Education Minister Bill Shorten and state Education Minister John-Paul Langbroek on Friday afternoon.
He says the Sunday deadline has been pushed back a few weeks so Queensland and the federal government can possibly iron out outstanding issues.
Mr Newman praised Mr Rudd for having a positive meeting with him, unlike previous prime minister Julia Gillard, he said.
“We’ve talked about it for a considerable period of time, I cannot give you anything other than saying it was a productive discussion,” Mr Newman told reporters.]
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/qld-to-seek-more-time-on-school-reforms/story-e6frfku9-1226678522554#ixzz2Yp4WUvNU
swamprat
Yes, the ‘people’ you are demonising are of a race.
poroti:
The Skywest (oops, Virgin) terminal in Perth is now at the international airport in nowhweresville, until you hit Tonkin(??) Hwy then Leach Hwy with lane-to-lane trucks and traffic practically all the way to Fremantle.
I left Fremantle at around 1.30 to get to the airport by 2pm only to be casually informed by the taxi driver that peak hour in Perth is now anytime from 1pm until 6pm. To cap it off, I was ‘bloked’ by the security screeners – told to remove shoes, scarf, jewellery and walk through the scanner twice, only to be ‘randomly’ selected for explosive devices screening by a lecherous looking character.
At least on SkyWest (oops Virgin) flights there are friendly FIFO faces. 🙂
[Quite bizzarely, the Greens have reduced being “left” to mean an unquestioned support for uncontrolled migration of right-wing homophobic (future Liberal voting) religious people.]
Wow, that’s a first for me – a “They will overrun us and usurp our values!” argument from a left/progressive/liberal point of view!
jv
[right-wing homophobic (future Liberal voting) religious people.]
Wow. Funny how people often don’t realise when they’re being racist
]
As Pauline would day “Please explain ?” . Right wing homophobic religious nuttery is most certainly not race specific.
Sarah R:
You can congratulate me for successfully navigating the traffic chaos in Perth and arriving home unscathed. 🙂
JV
[Do you know anything about the circumstances in Malaysia and Indonesia for asylum seekers? Any of us would get on a boat to Australia for the sake of our family if fleeing in fear of our lives and finding the oppression uncertainty, and risk in either of those places.]
I do not know a lot about Malaysia/Indonesia but I thought they were fleeing Afgahnistan and other middle eastern disaster areas.
I did not know they were refugees from Malaysia and Indonesia.
Why doesn’t the Green Party run a campaign to make Mal/Indon stop persecuting fellow muslims?
swamprat
You are right, mostly Afghan, plus Burmese, plus Iraqis and Iranians fleeing through those non-signatory nations which persecute and re-foul refugees.
Carey
[Wow, that’s a first for me – a “They will overrun us and usurp our values!” argument from a left/progressive/liberal point of view!]
No it’s not they will over run us.
But given the tight parliamentary system and the refusal of our politicians to allow us to have protected rights, a small minority of right-wing bigots can have massive influence.
I bet, though have been meaning to check, that all ALP parliamentarians who had a small percentage of muslim voters voted against gay equality, even though they make up 2% of our population.
CTar1@2058
Plus Foxtel did exactly the same thing with apartments and did it many many instances for free. They started charging a bit later. Our son was living in a apartment at that time around 2000.
They were happy to do so and offered all sorts of deals to get new business.
Talking about fibre to the box, a new telco listed today on the ASX, called INABOX GROUP LIMITED, ticker IAB – no relation to the matter under discussion, but interesting….
confessions
Yep that sounds like the Uncle Colon’s paradise we experience everyday. Yet the local yokels vote for the Libs 🙁 Oh and Leach Hwy is the best of them .Try Canning or Stirling !!
[ If their story falls apart (and that is about 10% of boat arrivals to date) yes, they are flown back to their home country, because they have failed to establish a genuine fear of persecution. ]
And you establish their home country … how exactly?
poroti
“These so-called refugees from Afghanistan and Sri Lanka arriving on boats. When will it stop? I don’t like their culture, or their religion. It is alien to me and my values. I think they should go back to where they came from.”
jaundiced view
I misread your original comment. Seriously misread. 🙂
JV
[Yes, the ‘people’ you are demonising are of a race.]
Oh dear, what can I say.
While, I do not accept there is such a thing as “race”, biologically, I know it is a powerful political term.
I am not demonising anyone for their “race”.
I am disagreeing with fellow simians because of their ideology.
Is that “racist” in the brave Green World?
I mean on your grounds you cannot criticise anyone because they are “of a race”.
I mean Howard, Bush were “of a race”.
poroti:
Perth needs light rail from the airports. The current system is untenable in peak hour for work travellers.
Kimberley Kitching has pulled out of the Lalor pre selection contest.
dave – I was recently on a tenants committee for a UK Estate that required the cable to be hauled up 40 floors in some cases.
Between the committee, the local council, British Telecom and the company that were the proponents of getting the cable out of the basements it just became all to hard.
Having done similar previously for satellite TV dishes I gave up in the end.
Too much ‘lock-in’ for too long with little performance and choice guarantees.
poroti
Ah – no worries.
[Kimberley Kitching has pulled out of the Lalor pre selection contest.]
Personally I think that’s good news.
What about Lisa Clutterham?
ruawake
[Kimberley Kitching has pulled out of the Lalor pre selection contest.]
Praise the Universe! Her candidature was bankrupt in many ways. What can we read into this? Shorten has been told by Rudd to perform a colonic irrigation on himself, I guess.
swamprat
I’d leave it there if I were you, or earlier if possible.
[Right wing homophobic religious nuttery is most certainly not race specific.]
True, look at the US.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labors-pick-in-federal-seat-of-bennelong-facing-sack/story-fn59niix-1226678500425
Are there any other skeletons to come out of the closet over the next few weeks?
Mod Lib
You mean Clutterfuckhamfist?
imacca
[
homophobic religious nuttery is most certainly not race specific.
True, look at the US.
]
And Nigeria and Iran to name but two
[Look at the number of women with commercial radio gigs to right-of-centre audiences. I’m ready to stand corrected but the only one I’ve never heard of in this country is Madonna King.]
I’ve never known Madonna King to be with any radio station other than the ABC (which she chucked in a year or two ago). Someone may correct me if I’m wrong.