Bit of a difference of opinion this week between Essential Research, a series renowned for its stability, and the Morgan multi-mode poll which, until now at least, has adhered very closely to the overall polling trend. The former has the Coalition ahead 52-48, as it did last week when it took the unusual step of publishing a figure for the polling period immediately following the leadership change, instead of its usual fortnightly rolling average. The major parties’ primary votes are also unchanged, with Labor on 38% and the Coalition on 46%, while the Greens are down a point to 8%.
Morgan on the other hand gives Labor an eyebrow-raising lead of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 on last time, although on the more trustworthy measure of previous election preferences the result is a slightly less striking 52.5-47.5, up from 51-49. This is the first time the Morgan multi-mode series has produced a substantial disparity between the two measures, and it’s in the opposite direction of the issue which bedevilled the old Morgan face-to-face series, in which preferences flows to Labor were unrealistically weak. The primary votes are 41.5% for Labor (up two), 39.5% for the Coalition (down one) and 8.5% for the Greens (unchanged).
The Essential poll also gauges views on the leaders’ attributes, which should make enjoyable reading for Kevin Rudd, who is widely rated as intelligent, hard-working and capable, and not seen as narrow-minded, intolerant or out of touch. His worst results on negative measures were for arrogant and erratic, while his weakest on positive measures were for honesty, trustworthiness and being visionary. Abbott rated well for hard-working and intelligent, as political leaders generally do, but also scored high for narrow-minded, arrogant and out of touch. Fewer than a third of respondents thought him trustworthy, honest or visionary.
Forty-nine per cent of respondents thought Labor would be more united in the wake of the leadership change, against 14% for less united. Other questions found a general view that the election should be held sooner than later, and produced unsurprising results on asylum seekers, the NBN, mining tax, carbon tax, disability insurance and the education reforms formerly known as Gonski.
[747
Dee
Will we deluged with policies from the Coalition?
Or will Rabbott’s Coalition stay on form and start throwing mud to slow the momentum?]
Voters are sick of mud. They need policies and have none. They are going to try to win the election empty-handed, and will fail abysmally.
[Heh, just watching Q&A on iview now, and Turnbull made the mistake of defining what it was KR was doing as trying to democratise the ALP. What a softy! Thanks Malcom, always useful to have your enemies frame things positively for you. Abbott and co. would have been talking about ALP window dressing or some such.]
And it’s this kind of stuff that makes a Turnbull return rather unlikely.
Albenesi is like a powerful ruckman and one wonders why he wasn’t in that position in place of the boring Swan long ago
He is likeable.makes sensible suggestions and speaks to the voters clearely
I bet Abbott would like a deputy as good
There we go, just watched 7:30 and that – “fake change” – is exactly the stance Abbott took, haha.
[Albenesi is like a powerful ruckman and one wonders why he wasn’t in that position in place of the boring Swan long ago
He is likeable.makes sensible suggestions and speaks to the voters clearely
I bet Abbott would like a deputy as good]
Albanese is our Joe Biden. 🙂
Just think, we may well have the pleasure of seeing Bolts Head explode if the ALP win the election.
Carey, seems so. Being (occasionally) generous probably helps his personal approval, however :).
MT referred to business needing high upload speeds already having fibre to the premise. That’s only true if you’re talking traditional businesses with traditional office space. One of the examples Labor should talk about w.r.t to the NBN are virtual offices. Any group of people from across Australia will be able to more efficiently assemble as a team.
Part of the deal with the NBN is that cheap communication will change how people work (BB said something like this way back, and he’s right). It’s not correct to assume that people will do things essentially the same way they do now. Same as with cheap transport, automation, information, etc.
We could even have a virtual parliament! Politicans could then spend more of their time in their electorate. 🙂
Yesiree Bob
“Just think, we may well have the pleasure of seeing Bolts Head explode if the ALP win the election.”
He’ll pretend to be outraged when in fact he’ll kick back with a Chardonnay and dream of another three years of steady pay without writers’ block. If he got wall-to-wall Liberal governments what would he bitch about? The poor fellow would be completely lost.
[He’ll pretend to be outraged when in fact he’ll kick back with a Chardonnay and dream of another three years of steady pay without writers’ block. If he got wall-to-wall Liberal governments what would he bitch about? The poor fellow would be completely lost.]
Nope, Bolt will be raging against the Senate blocking every last one of Abbott’s attempts at legislation 🙂
[We could even have a virtual parliament! Politicans could then spend more of their time in their electorate. ]
Ermm.. where is the furthest place we could send Bob Baldwin to that will have an NBN connection?
Has everyone left just as I arrive? Crikey are you around? All seem to be on a high, my grandson emailed me the news re Newspoll.
Here in Iceland have spent a couple of hours in the hot pools, had a great lunch and will be going again into the pool with the silica mud tonight for the last time. Up at 5.30 tomorrow to catch the plane back to Scotland, a wonderful country Iceland despite the cold
JacktheInsider @JacktheInsider 6h
@GrogsGamut If the LNP lose, it will bring on the greatest front bench clean out since… since Labor last week 🙂
Tony The Geek Yegles @geeksrulz 6h
After all the running, cycling, swimming, truck driving, book touring Tony has done for the nation. This is how you treat him??
Greg Jericho @GrogsGamut 6h
@JacktheInsider the timing question – long enough to keep the lead, not so long that they ditch Abbott 🙂
Rudd net approval/dissaproval now +7%, put on that teflon jacket young man and watch him cruise to further heights of popularity.
Abbott on -21%, throw that mud and will stick everywhere, duck and cover Mr Abbott, as you will be portrayed as a coward, and a simpleton
Yeehaaa. Come on down Newspoll TPP =50-50
[Election race neck-and-neck as Kevin Rudd streaks away from Tony Abbott
The latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, reveals that based on preference flows at the last election the Coalition and Labor are both on 50 per cent.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-race-neck-and-neck-as-kevin-rudd-streaks-away-from-tony-abbott/story-fn59niix-1226676231604
The libs must have been expecting to just cruise on through. Say nothing, keep their man in a box with his mouth shut and move to the treasury benches after the ALP self immolates.
It really is hard to have a plan B when all you have are jokers and fools controlled by someone who can only ever think nasty (Credlin).
Apart from Turnbull there are very few on the Lib side that can sustain an argument without resorting to Nasty…
Morning all
Early starts the next few days.
Some nice polling, honeymoon??? Either way he has Abbott on the ropes at the moment and should take advantage of it imo get the preselections done and off to an August election
Moving to an ets earlier would be a vote win but comes with a decent hit to the budget, it, could be worth gambling on not needing the change to win the election
Abbott is very unpopular, why risk a change by not going to the polls???
Party ballot for leader means we end up with a popularity contest, is that really good for the country???
better get ready for work, have a great day all
womble
[Party ballot for leader means we end up with a popularity contest, is that really good for the country???]
I think a major motivation is to placate the many voters pissed off with the NSW “disease” of leader-go-round.
I trust my own judgement to make an informed desicion for party leader more than I will ever trust caucus…I would never have chosen Gillard for one
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
So Abbott’s on the nose. Credlin will now have to roll out the softer side of Coalition polity. Enter Sophie Mirabella, Michaelia Cash, Jamie Briggs, Kelly O’Bigmouth, etc!
Barney Zwartz on progress of the Royal Commission.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/search-for-victims-of-sex-abuse-as-children-20130708-2pmbb.html
Painless significant reduction in carbon emissions since the introduction of carbon pricing.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/power-use-down-since-carbon-tax-20130708-2pmcz.html
And the last SMH article read for my monthly quota is a timely one to ram down Morriscum’s throat. A former SAS commander who was on the Tampa boarding cuts loose.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/use-of-sas-against-tampa-outrageous-20130708-2pmci.html
And a Professor of International Law puts the boot into Morriscum too.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lawyer-warns-of-legal-issues-20130708-2pmcd.html
Lenore Taylor’s all over it!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/08/scott-morrison-navy-international-waters
Regardless of what one thinks of supporting the auto industry here’s a nice little time bomb for Abbott and his expert Shadow Minister the Puff Adder.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/companies/holden-decision-on-collision-course-with-federal-election/story-fni0d54v-1226676183706
Now the shitty Adelaide Advertiser has put up the paywall!
Section 2 . . .
The Guardian’s Lenore Taylor on “The Narrowing” – or should I say “The Closure!”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/08/kevin-rudd-bolster-labor-pms
Ron Tandberg on the turning of the Abbott worm. He calls his courage into severe doubt.
Cathy Wilcox hammers O’Farrell on his decision making prowess.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
A clever contribution from Pat Campbell.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
Ron Tandberg on scientific whaling.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
And I have now been blocked from SMH articles. I can’t even get to see the header of an article!
Mercifully it seems the cartoons are exempt from the count.
Another classic from David Rowe based on “Stop the Boats!” Look at the figurehead!
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Like you centaur I would NEVER have selected Gillard in 2010. Even though she was a very good deputy, there was something missing, which the Australian public noticed well ahead of caucus.
Just imagine how much Labor would be ahead if Gillard hadn’t held her party back for so long refusing to give up power in the face of overwhelming evidence she needed to go. 😉
Good morning, Bludgers.
BK – try Fairfax’s brisbanetimes, which usually publishes all the main articles from Age, smh etc & is also in need of the hits. And thanks again for all your morning links.
[Newspoll 50-50.]
The vice turns tighter again. Heads now exploding in LNP bunkers. Can the LNP move on their feet?
I wager no. Why? for the all the reasons Andrew Elder has pointed out at length. Now Abbott is facing a popular figure who bats aside his negstivity, and discombobulates his well worn rhetorical lines, there’s just nothing in the locker.
Fundamentals all good in the Australian enconomy, and the LNP has no policy to speak of – just a joke pamphlett (you can almost hear LNP HQ when they put this out – hey I know, lets just call it ‘a positive plan’ instead of developing policy – tick!), a 2nd rate NBN policy, a now d0scredited crazybrave line on boats, and a lightweight position on debt that wouldnt go two round with a revolving door, let alone against PM Rudd in a debate.
They might still get a few bites from disunity, but Rudd has been clever in attacking the problems head on: no more leadershit allowd in the ALP without grass roots support, and NSW Labor in the sinbin.
Its too late for a policy-led recovery from ABbott, and the politics have now changed. I believe the LNP will not recover their footing in time, and will lose this election.
BK
[Mercifully it seems the cartoons are exempt from the count]
Strangely mordor is the reverse. You can jump the pay wall for the articles but not for the cartoons.
[Just imagine how much Labor would be ahead if Gillard hadn’t held her party back for so long refusing to give up power in the face of overwhelming evidence she needed to go. ]
I notice the smiley so I won’t take your comment too seriously Dio.
Rudd has come back invigorated and appears fresh in the eyes of the public. If he had won in 2010 and was 2 months out from his 3rd campaign he might be as popular as he is today.
And from the Land of the Free –
Borat in the Deep South.
http://americablog.com/2013/07/borat-visits-the-south-video.html
Surely not! The US is getting worse by the day!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/07/08/colorados-state-senate-president-faces-unprecedented-recall-election-over-support-passage-of-gun-safety-laws/
And North Carolina makes the very same point.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/07/08/video-photo-white-history-month-parade-sign-offends-in-north-carolina-town/
Some cartoons on immigration reform.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/07/08/cartoons-of-the-day-the-house-and-immigration-reform/
Wisconsin, too!
http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/gov-walker-signs-sneak-attack-wiscons
Also Texas (again!).
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017130197
When religious fervour meets politics. What a nice lady!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/07/08/video-foxs-trotta-health-care-reform-deeply-rooted-in-creeping-paganism/
Rick Perry’s out! But might be in?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/07/08/1222056/-Oops-there-it-is-Perry-won-t-run-in-2014-but-hints-at-interest-in-2016-bid
This week’s Gun Fail round up.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/07/07/1220100/-GunFAIL-XXV
Ripper of a piece by Guy Rundle on British attitudes to Oz.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/08/what-british-jokes-australians-mean
Nicely timed with the Ashes starting tomorrow.
Poroti
Labor Federal caucus has shown by its decisions that it is lousy at choosing leaders – since 2000 any way.
1996 – Beazley – Good choice score one for caucus
2002? – Crean – I like Crean but any half wit could see he is NOT leadership material. Why could not caucus.
2004 – Mark Latham – the man was well and truly bonkers well before caucus selected him- He DID do a good job for a while but his instability was well and truly known
2005 – Back to Beazley – a panic decision – understandable but not wise – return to the past and Beazley older and Howard stronger.
2006 – Rudd – Depends on your view here. If so many hated Rudd why the hell did they choose him. Have to give caucus a fail here BECAUSE they claimed Rudd was so bad
2010 – Caucus made a monumental balls up
2012 – Caucus made a monumental balls up
2013 – Caucus eventually gets in righ.
So out of 8 choices in the last 20 years, caucus got it right only the first and last time.
Three times they made terrible choices – Gillard, Gillard and Latham
Twice they made flat and dull choices doomed to fail – Crean and Beazley mark II
One (perhaps twice) they deliberately chose risky choices ie people they hated but thought could win – Rudd and I think Latham – a dangerous and stupid strategy.
Only finally in 2013 under pressure of electoral annihilation did they return to Rudd.
The caucus selection model is a proven failure. I might go further back in time and suggest that the years of dull as dishwater leadership by Calwell added to Menzies long reign. I will give them a good period 1971 – 1996.
Tom Hawkins
[Rudd has come back invigorated and appears fresh in the eyes of the public. If he had won in 2010 and was 2 months out from his 3rd campaign he might be as popular as he is today.]
He would not appear invigorated and fresh if he had not been on the sidelines for three years. If he had won in 2010 his ministers would have rebelled before long and installed Julia Gillard, but probably with a majority in the House. He needed to be sacked to get the message that his management was atrocious.
At the moment the contrast with Abbott and his tired old slogans is startling.
[he might be as popular]
He might NOT be as popular
Poor old honest Tony.
It’s all starting to fall down around his ears now.
Former SAS boss comes out.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-07/former-sas-commander-breaks-silence-on-tampa/2785164
If you need a break from one nation’s battles to the real international deal – Oz v Poms – and didn’t catch up with it yesterday, it’s here: A history of great rivalry: England v Australia
Just in time for The Ashes, and The G’s incomparable ball-by-ball commentary – much better than Ch9’s – not yet completely synchronious; but, if ALP is returned & NBN rollout continues, it should be next series.
THESE POLLS ARE BS!!!!!!!!
Triton
If they had not removed Rudd in 2010 he would have gone on to a healthy win.
We would NOW be coming up to a third term election. His government would have continued to be quite successful, just as it was in 2007-2010. Let us think:
The Libs would have selected a more formidable leader than Abbott and yes this 2013 election would be a real challenge for Labor to win a third term.
Good morning all.
For a change, a once in a hundred year event worth being pleased about:
[For the first time in more than a century, there were no fatalities on Pilbara mine sites last year.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-09/fatality-free-year-in-the-pilbara-mines/4807734?section=wa
[If he had won in 2010 his ministers would have rebelled before long and installed Julia Gillard, but probably with a majority in the House.]
This is what I think they should’ve done. Let Labor get re-elected with a majority and then removed him.
Act in haste, repent at leisure as they say.
Barnaby talking about ‘Crazy Kevin’. Gilbert points to Newspoll PPM and approvals.
Triton
I think that Rudd may well have grown in popularity – just as did Menzies.
I think one thing SHOULD BE CLEAR to all parties.
Australians like their politicians to be SMART – VERY smart. They LIKE academics and boffins and people with BRAINS.
Think Menzies, Evatt, both popular and both brilliant men in their own right.
Think the slow decline of the Liberals with a series of average leaders – Holt, Gorton, McMahon, only matched by the dull as dishwater Calwell.
Both parties refreshed themselves with Patrician leaders (Whitlam and Fraser) who perhaps because of their education appeared smart to the public.
Hawke was clearly VERY smart, as was Keating – they both won. Hewson was smart too.
The long years of a second rate Liberal under Howard gave Labor licence to choose dull. This has been a probem for them.
weakest opponent to face in the election, support this easily gained can very easily be lost. Voters pressing the sms to vote for the next Aussie Political Idol is a fickle business.PUFF POSTED
========================================================
PUFF ITS ONLY ALP MEMBERS not the population
So Andy Murray was the first Brit to win a Wimbledon title in 77 years. Right?
WRONG! Virginia Wade: a Wimbledon champion written out of British history: The Andy Murray headlines have ignored the fact that a Briton won a Wimbledon singles title in 1977. Ah, but she was a woman
At least Oz still recognises its Tennis Women Champions!
[Plastic magnifying sheets will be installed in voting booths to help Victorians navigate their way through what could be the biggest ever Senate ballot paper.
Victorians could be faced with a 1.02 metre Senate ballot paper at the 2013 federal election, the maximum size it can be printed, with the font size reduced to 6 point to fit all the candidates’ names.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/magnifying-glass-needed-to-read-tiny-print-on-huge-senate-ballot-20130708-2pmcy.html#ixzz2YUs0ZVUQ
How would a 1 metre sheet of paper even fit in the voting booth? You’d have to do sections at a time. A real hassle for those of us who vote below the line!
[ This is what I think they should’ve done. Let Labor get re-elected with a majority and then removed him. ]
I think Rudd realizes this is a very likely scenario this time as well – so he’s not taking any chances.
But I believe he’s changed his position again overnight – given the latest upswing in the polls, he now proposes to make the leadership of the ALP hereditary.
TH
[He might NOT be as popular]
Okay, that makes more sense.
DTT, you are ignoring his poor treatment of his ministers and his ineptitude with policy. Remember Nicola Roxon’s comments? She gave I don’t think she was making it up. Before long those problems would have been laid bare.
Confessions
I know we will never agree on this, but frankly the ministers who quarreled with Rudd were pretty damn incompetent and fully deserved a bollocking.
I have little respect for Swan or Conroy, the two main protagonists. Both failed spectacularly in the absence of Rudd and helped to destroy Gillard. Garrett was a bit of a special case.
Rudd just has to keep up his tactic of calling for a kinder, gentler, more civil political discourse while holding Abbott by the nose and repeatedly kicking him in the nuts.
Oops. I started to say “She gave an specific example on his handling of the federal takeover of hospitals”.
centaur009@819
Me either, when when became leader.
She was a good minister and may have made a good future leader… but now she’s gone.
Thanks Bill, David, Mark, Paul & Co. You geniuses! 😡