Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll concurs with Galaxy’s two-party result but has both parties lower on the primary vote, with Kevin Rudd doing no more than break even with his debut personal ratings.

James J reports Newspoll has come in at 51-49 to the Coalition (compared with 57-43 last week) from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up six), 43% for the Coalition (down five) and 11% for the Greens (up two). Kevin Rudd holds a handy 49-35 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but achieves a neutral result with his debut personal ratings with both approval and disapproval at 36%. Tony Abbott is down one on approval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 56%.

We also have supplementary results from yesterday’s Galaxy poll courtesy of GhostWhoVotes showing Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen as preferred Treasurer 38% to 20%, and 33% saying Rudd’s leadership style has improved against 43% who say it hasn’t (although that may include people who think it didn’t need to). (UPDATE: I gather from Simon Benson’s Daily Telegraph report that it was put to respondents that that some thought his style “chaotic and dysfunctional”).

UPDATE (Essential Research): GhostWhoVotes relates that Essential Research, which normally provides only a fortnightly rolling average, has published results from the most recent polling period (Thursday to Sunday) showing the primary votes at 38% for Labor (up four), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (up one), panning out to 52-48 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The normal rolling average, which in the circumstances tells us very little, moves from 55-45 to 53-47.

UPDATE 2: Bernard Keane in Crikey:

The decision to dump Gillard was approved by 55% of voters, including 24% who strongly approved, and opposed by 31%. Some 77% of Labor voters approved, 40% of Liberal voters and 49% of Greens voters. But men were much more likely to approve: 63% of male voters supported Gillard’s removal, compared to only 46% of women; women disapproved 36% compared to 29% of men. A third of voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor and only 19% said it made them less likely. More than 60% of Labor voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor, and 14% of Liberal voters, but a third of Liberal voters said it made them less likely to vote Labor …

The extent to which Labor collapsed after improving in the second half of 2012 is illustrated by a series of responses on which groups would be better off under Labor or the Coalition. In September last year, voters gave Labor a big lead for groups like pensioner, the unemployed, people on low incomes, people with disabilities, people who send their children to public schools and recently arrived immigrants.

Last week, Labor’s lead had shrunk virtually across the board: its preference as the best party for the unemployed fell from 27 points to 14 points; for low-income earners from 27 points to 21 points; for single parents from 23 to 15 points. Only for people with disabilities had it increased, from 20 to 21 points. The damage done to Labor’s “branding” as a party to be trusted to look after lower income earners is significant.

There’s also been a significant drop in support for keeping our troops in Afghanistan, with the level of voters wanting us to withdraw our troops increasing seven points to 69%, with virtually no difference across voting intention.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): The Morgan multi-mode poll is the first pollster to actually have Labor in front, their primary vote at 39.5% (up 11% on last week) to 40.5% for the Coalition (down 10%) and 8.5% for the Greens (up half a point). This gives Labor a respondent-allocated preferences lead of 51.5-48.5, which emerges as 51-49 when using preference flows from the previous election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,379 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 25 of 28
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  3. The issue that reflects what Puff was saying, IMHO, is that the general pattern of male on male murders is different from the general pattern of male on female murders.

    I used ‘general’ advisedly.

  5. [Good news:

    Phillip Coorey ‏@PhillipCoorey 6m @SenatorFeeney wins Batman pre selection]
    Hey G.G.! Isn’t it great that Senator Feeney voted for Rudd!

  15. Tanya’s critique of the LNPs lack of policies seems to be getting traction and causing people to ask themselves the same question. ‘Real Solutions’ is being seen for what it is … An empty vessel.

  16. Tanya’s critique of the LNPs lack of policies seems to be getting traction and causing people to ask themselves the same question. ‘Real Solutions’ is being seen for what it is … An empty vessel.

  21. [Tanya’s critique of the LNPs lack of policies seems to be getting traction and causing people to ask themselves the same question. ‘Real Solutions’ is being seen for what it is … An empty vessel.]
    Well of course. Now that the unpopular leader has gone, people are now going to ask themselves what will the Coalition actually do if elected.

    The fact they have put out bugger all policies over the last 2.5 years is now a problem for the Coalition.

  25. Audience groans at the Puff Adder as the show closes.
    On Thursday QandA in Indonesia with Rudd.
    Monday it’s Turnbull and Albo and Bill Leak.

  27. 2010 ALP Caucus left or leaving in 2013
    1. Gillard GOING
    2. Combet GOING
    3. Crean GOING
    4. Smith GOING
    5. Emerson GONE
    6. Jenkins GOING
    7. Garrett GOING
    8. Roxon GOING
    9. M Ferguson GOING
    10. Sharon Grierson GOING
    11. Kirsten Livermore GOING
    12. Robert McLelland GOING
    13. Steve Gibbons GOING
    14. Senator Chris Evans GONE
    15. Senator Mark Arbib GONE
    16. Senator Mark Bishop GOING
    17. Senator Trish Crossin GOING
    18. Senator John Hogg GOING

    2010 LNP Caucus left or leaving in 2013
    1. Joanna Gash
    2. Judi Moylan
    3. Barry Haase
    4. Patrick Secker
    5. Alby Schultz
    6. Alex Somlyay
    7. Mal Washer
    8. Senator Alan Eggleston
    9. Senator Sue Boyce
    10. Senator Gary Humphries
    11. Paul Neville
    12. John Forrest
    13. Senator Ron Boswell
    14. Tony Crook

    Others
    1. Rob Oakeshott GOING
    2. Tony Windsor GOING

    Did I miss anyone?

  30. EU Bankers slam US electronis spying on EU affairs
    ________________________
    Spying on EU competitors commercial plans and all done to help US corporations is a part of US survelliance operations
    and who gets the info ??
    and what aboutr Ossie companies ..have they been watched too

  32. I’ve not seen much of Plibersek before. Very impressed. Sophie seemed to be having some kind of manic episode. Erratic and disjointed Nodding of the head. Looking at the wrong camera. Really weird stuff.

  35. “@CraigEmersonMP: I asked why so many Libs retweeted my suggestion that campaigning against Sophie Mirabella is in the national Interest. Now I know! #qanda”

  36. scrutiny on policies. a very simple question and mirabella is left helpless. the blowtorch is held and three word slogans dont cut it. should be a pretty simple excercise to debate these lightweights.

  37. Abbott said this is not the B team this is the C team.

    Incorrect.

    These are the Cabinets from this term in office:
    A) Sep 2010

    B) Dec 2011

    C) Feb 2013

    D) Mar 2013

    E) June 2013

    Based on this, what we currently have is the “E team” Cabinet!

  38. My Say

    Tony Jones and everyone knows that Murdoch media ended Julia’s career.

    BIG WHOOP!

    We now officially know that World Championship Wrestling is not real!

    People had to be told, that Murdoch controls the show, they couldn’t arrive at that conclusion themselves 😆

  41. Mod Lib I suspect you’ve left out a fair swag of LNP members who are staying mum pending the outcome of the election…. Call this the “possible LNP departures in the evemt of an ALP win”. Bronwyn Bishop, Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb, Julie Bishop for starters …

  42. bemused:

    Get yourself a nappy and get in line for the hard work ahead.

    I didn’t join the party to find ageing roadblocks like you in our path. Harden up, or find a hobby if you lack the bottle for the battle ahead.

  43. I’d keep watching. Peter Fox is a good strong person from what I’ve seen.

    “Peter Fox @Peter_Fox59
    Lateline ABC about to air story on NSW Special Commission into clergy sexual abuse.”

  48. “@MandyKirsopp: Tony Jones asks Mirabella: Does it help when Rupert Murdoch is on your side? Spot on – & she laughed. #qanda”

    For those that missed it

  49. Feeney gets the seat. That’s a relief. Imagine the ministry without him. They’d be scraping the bottom of the barrel. Oh, no wait ..

  50. [Tony Jones and everyone knows that Murdoch media ended Julia’s career.

    BIG WHOOP!]

    The prospect of a media baron holding sway over a democratically elected PM is indeed a ‘BIG WHOOP’, and something which would be taken seriously in other countries.

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