James J reports Newspoll has come in at 51-49 to the Coalition (compared with 57-43 last week) from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up six), 43% for the Coalition (down five) and 11% for the Greens (up two). Kevin Rudd holds a handy 49-35 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but achieves a neutral result with his debut personal ratings with both approval and disapproval at 36%. Tony Abbott is down one on approval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 56%.
We also have supplementary results from yesterday’s Galaxy poll courtesy of GhostWhoVotes showing Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen as preferred Treasurer 38% to 20%, and 33% saying Rudd’s leadership style has improved against 43% who say it hasn’t (although that may include people who think it didn’t need to). (UPDATE: I gather from Simon Benson’s Daily Telegraph report that it was put to respondents that that some thought his style “chaotic and dysfunctional”).
UPDATE (Essential Research): GhostWhoVotes relates that Essential Research, which normally provides only a fortnightly rolling average, has published results from the most recent polling period (Thursday to Sunday) showing the primary votes at 38% for Labor (up four), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (up one), panning out to 52-48 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The normal rolling average, which in the circumstances tells us very little, moves from 55-45 to 53-47.
UPDATE 2: Bernard Keane in Crikey:
The decision to dump Gillard was approved by 55% of voters, including 24% who strongly approved, and opposed by 31%. Some 77% of Labor voters approved, 40% of Liberal voters and 49% of Greens voters. But men were much more likely to approve: 63% of male voters supported Gillard’s removal, compared to only 46% of women; women disapproved 36% compared to 29% of men. A third of voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor and only 19% said it made them less likely. More than 60% of Labor voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor, and 14% of Liberal voters, but a third of Liberal voters said it made them less likely to vote Labor …
The extent to which Labor collapsed after improving in the second half of 2012 is illustrated by a series of responses on which groups would be better off under Labor or the Coalition. In September last year, voters gave Labor a big lead for groups like pensioner, the unemployed, people on low incomes, people with disabilities, people who send their children to public schools and recently arrived immigrants.
Last week, Labor’s lead had shrunk virtually across the board: its preference as the best party for the unemployed fell from 27 points to 14 points; for low-income earners from 27 points to 21 points; for single parents from 23 to 15 points. Only for people with disabilities had it increased, from 20 to 21 points. The damage done to Labor’s “branding” as a party to be trusted to look after lower income earners is significant.
There’s also been a significant drop in support for keeping our troops in Afghanistan, with the level of voters wanting us to withdraw our troops increasing seven points to 69%, with virtually no difference across voting intention.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan): The Morgan multi-mode poll is the first pollster to actually have Labor in front, their primary vote at 39.5% (up 11% on last week) to 40.5% for the Coalition (down 10%) and 8.5% for the Greens (up half a point). This gives Labor a respondent-allocated preferences lead of 51.5-48.5, which emerges as 51-49 when using preference flows from the previous election.
this isn’t peak anything Sean – the public are still absorbing and observing –
[bit severe? based on discussions here last week isn’t there some constitutional requirement? ]
90% of what ministers do is routine approving of things put up to them by their departments. The other 10% is actual policy decisions. But it takes at least a month to get up to speed on what’s what in the portfolio, and then months more to get actual policy changes developed and approved. So if there’s an August election there’ll be no time for them to do any of that. They’ll just do lots of routine brief-signing in between campaigning.
psephos
but was a short term cabinet an immediate requirement if election not called?
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Rudd 49 (+16 compared to Gillard) Abbott 35 (-10) #auspol]
Now THAT’s a swing.
telegraph deadline must be historical disgrace. i hope even they die in shame.
Tony Burke to Immigration
[but was a short term cabinet an immediate requirement if election not called?]
Not sure I understand the question. There has to be a Cabinet, regardless of when the election is. The question is whether ministers actually do anything or not. If the election is in August, they won’t do anything but routine.
Plus, of course, in Rudd governments Rudd makes all the decisions himself. Maybe that will change this time, but I doubt it.
55
Either there is a typo there or you want journalists to be tucked up in bead early.
Print media will be as obscene as it has ever been to Labor.
Rudd’s aces are press conferences, announcements, morning tv etc..and news coverages.
ah a sign of the quality of debate to come. it was always as bad as this but somehow it had effect. not now
“Therese Rein says a comment by Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey that he “should have drowned” Kevin Rudd when he walked the Kokoda Track with him in 2006 is not in keeping with the spirit of the undertaking.
Mr Hockey reportedly made the comment at a Liberal party rally in Melbourne, telling the crowd at Flemington Showgrounds that: “I’ve seen all the versions of Kevin – Kokoda Kevin, and I apologise to the Australian people, I should have drowned him when I had a chance in the mountains.”
Amid laughter and applause, he continued: “In fact I did actually apologise to Julia Gillard on Wednesday before question time, and she said ‘Yes you should reflect on that’.”
Ms Rein, who returned to Brisbane overnight after a business trip to London, said, “I’ve walked the Kokoda Track and the Kokoda Track is about mateship and courage and endurance. That doesn’t seem to hang together very well with those comments.”
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/pms-wife-calls-out-hockey-over-kokoda-track-quip-20130630-2p4wn.html#ixzz2Xi0g4v8X
End of first day of voting in the Batman preselection. I’m told that turnout is high. There’ll be a second day of voting tomorrow, but most will have voted today. Result tomorrow night. Feeney people think he’s winning, presumably by counting known heads as they turn up to vote.
According to current figures on ABC Calculator, 4 seats will still be in Coalition hands, and they are on slim margins.
Robertson NSW 0.1%
Greenway NSW 0.2%
Deakin VIC 0.5%
Corangamite VIC 0.8%
On the 2PP bases of 51-49.
well paine, its seems a long time you have been banging on here about rudd and things, and you were always right, so as a cotraveller bit past tense now let me offer congrats – you have been tough, knowledgable, articulate and almost impeccably correct – whoever you actually are. the pseudonym is goodo also
[Rudd to rule nation from Brisbane seat of power
[EXCLUSIVE: BRISBANE will once again be the seat of national power after PM Kevin Rudd decided to run the country from his back deck in Brisbane.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/
Rudd working hard for Qld vote…. always something different to grab their attention.
I for one welcome our new Queensland overlords…
65
They are only overlords if you accept north as up. Buy one of those south up maps and the problem is solved.
This result is confirmation of.a huge impovement for Labor. Whether or not Rudd actually wins, the Senate now looks hugely better for Labor, and unlikely to go to Abbott if he were PM.
Painfull as it was, the leadershp spill was correct this time. I do not think Rudd should rush to N election. He should make the policy changes he has planned first, then go at a time of his choosing, though not too late.
[I for one welcome our new Queensland overlords…]
Perhaps a new coat of arms featuring a cane toad and crocodile?
[Feeney people think he’s winning, presumably by counting known heads as they turn up to vote.]
or – they know how to stack branches and have already voted for many unknown heads.
Feeney, along with Shorten, Marles, etc personify all that is rotten with Labor. Here was a chance to have some talent – but no, it’s Feeney – another right wing numbers man with the charisma of a bag of vomit. Thjen again, a fitting replacement for Mar’n.
@Socrates/67
There is already suggestions/rumors of Election in August.
Holidays do start September 21st also till Mid-End October?
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/06/alternatives-to-an-election-on-14-september.html#more
[Feeney, along with Shorten, Marles, etc personify all that is rotten with Labor. Here was a chance to have some talent – but no, it’s Feeney – another right wing numbers man with the charisma of a bag of vomit. Thjen again, a fitting replacement for Mar’n.]
Such good losers, the Left. I guess you get lots of practice.
Nighty-night, comrades.
Welcome to the Commonwealth of Queensland…
but seriously, it’s foolish to interpret anything to ironclad out of polling this early. I saw something about “peak Rudd” (no doubt it was written by Sean the idiot). While that could end up being true, there’s no way of knowing for sure.
What we do know is that the undecideds are up and the gap has closed, which means people are listening again. But it’s up to Rudd and Labor to turn those open minds to Labor-voting ones again.
As I have said before, this is the fortnight that will decide it. Whichever side finds the right note and carries it will have the momentum behind them to win the election.
Complacency and overconfidence, from either side, is extremely ill-advised.
Newman increasing pricing:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/motorway-tolls-rates-power-and-speeding-offences-will-become-more-painful-as-the-new-financial-year-dawns/story-fnihsrf2-1226672141827
[This is peak Rudd… can’t believe people will ignore all Labors failings for the last 6 years just to vote this douche blast]
Well if the ‘Labor failings’ were real I’m sure they wouldn’t but 80% of them were just made up lies absolute idiots repeated as if they were solemn truth and the other 15% were process and media handling issues that your average 8 year would concede are not important in the long run then cause I’m in a generous mood the last 5% were minor actual errors.
[This is peak Rudd… can’t believe people will ignore all Labors failings for the last 6 years just to vote this douche blast
Well if the ‘Labor failings’ were real I’m sure they wouldn’t but 80% of them were just made up lies absolute idiots repeated as if they were solemn truth and the other 15% were process and media handling issues that your average 8 year would concede are not important in the long run then cause I’m in a generous mood the last 5% were minor actual errors.]
the reality is Rudd will do better than Gillard because he will not have a disloyal narcissistic sociopath whiteanting him the way Julia did.
I think it is ‘peak abbott’ myself – if Australians could vote for Hewson over Keating in 1993, or Latham over Howard, they are never going to vote for Abbott against Rudd. Labor will have a 10 seat majority by the time abbott unravels. Media scrutiny will now turn to him, and there’s not a lot of depth to delve into.
sorry – correction:
I think it is ‘peak abbott’ myself – if Australians could NOT vote for Hewson over Keating in 1993, or Latham over Howard, they are never going to vote for Abbott against Rudd. Labor will have a 10 seat majority by the time abbott unravels. Media scrutiny will now turn to him, and there’s not a lot of depth to delve into.
It is possible a good number of those ALP women may just stay with The Greens, who have a female leader.
A lot of assumptions are/have been made about the women scorned by the ALP.
[It is possible a good number of those ALP women may just stay with The Greens, who have a female leader.
A lot of assumptions are/have been made about the women scorned by the ALP.]
it is not just the women – I know two Labor party bloke members who have quit the party this week and will be voting Greens for as long as Rudd is leader. I’ve heard a lot of people who swing between labor and greens saying they’ll be voting Greens at the election. the senate should be safe now – and seats such as Melbourne would be except abbott will preference Labor ahead of the greens and vice versa.
78
Why would the ALP preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens? The Liberals may well do it, unless what happened to Ted has put them off it, but it is unlikely to ALP will do it.
78 and 79 I cannot see the ALP preferencing the Libs ahead of the Greens. Even the idiots in charge of the ALP could not be that stupid.
75 – alternatively Rudd knows how to manage the media better than Gillard and is a much more effective campaigner. It is unfortunate what happened to Gillard but her wounds were sadly mostly self-inflicted.
Do you think that the ALP can build on this? Generally you would hope for a new leader to be out in front. But I think this is a different situation.
[Why would the ALP preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens?]
You know the scene in “Life of Brian” when the 2 revolutionary groups meet in the sewers on the way to kidnap Ms Pilate?
And they start fighting each other?
So Brian tries to get them to stop by warning them about the ‘common enemy’,the Romans -who, incidentally are watching and highly amused, and the revolutionaries start looking for the People’s Front of Judea whoever instead of cooperating.
Same reason operating here with the Labor Right.
At least it is unlikely the Libs will gain a senate majority.
Labor preferences are seldom if ever distributed in any Lower House seats, so Labor “how to vote” cards are largely symbolic.
I believe the Victorian Liberals will preference Labor ahead of the Greens, as they wanted to in 2010 before they were overruled by the Federal leadership. Of course like Baillieu they may delay this announcement as long as possible so that both Labor and the Greens use up a lot of valuable time and resources unnecessarily.
Surely, surely, SURELY the ALP will not be so stupid again. Did the ALP not preference the DLP (or someone similar) ahead of the Greens so they won a senate seat last time or in 2007?
Updated my Rudd-replaces-Gillard polling coverage with the Newspoll stuff at the bottom: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/rudd-replaces-gillard.html
A six-point jump up for a government in one poll has very few precedents. I found just four of them since 1986: the sudden shift in late 92, the 2001 poll after S11, and two rogues. What’s more in this case it’s quite clear the six-point jump is largely real. How long it lasts is another question.
Vogon Poet
Posted Monday, July 1, 2013 at 1:39 am
Fielding from Family First got in on ALP preferences with bugger all primary votes and some Labor Right people have said they would do it again if circumstances were the same or similar or whatever. Slow learners.
Psephos@9
Except that Abbott also had an uncommitted rate of nine four times when he was in the high -20s and low -30s last year, and six times in a row in mid-01 when he was anything from -7 to -19. And the uncommitted rate was ten when he recorded that dreadful -36. So while respondents have been polarised in their views about him for a long time, not all of the negative views were locked in in the past. That said despite some improvement his ratings have been consistently fairly bad for a few months now.
(I had a prediction late last year that he wouldn’t get -9 or better by election day. It had a near-death experience in March.)
@Kevin/88
What does that mean in the overall picture though? Does personal rating translate into more votes ?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2012/09/29/the-primary-dynamic/
Possum, from some time ago, on the relationship between PPM and party votes.
[The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.]
Kevin, interesting history of comebacks on your site. Canada also had quite a few “comebacks/musical chairs” in that same early 1900s, and so did NZ (and I just realised of course that with no states NZ has had a national “Premier” for much longer than us.
And of course Grover Cleveland is the only US President to do it. He is called the 22nd AND 24th President (a numbering that Truman hated). I had to laugh when I heard a reporter on Wednesday say that Rudd would now be the 26th and 28th PM – we traditionally just number the people not the terms.
After Cleveland lost the 1888 election (almost certainly cheated out of it) his wife Frances supposedly famously told the staff as she left the White House to look after things as they would be back.
zoidlord@89
There is a strong relationship between a PM’s net rating and their party’s rating. Generally, high PM rating means high party rating and low PM rating means low party rating. Also, if the PM rating improves a lot while the party vote stays the same, this tends to mean the party rating is about to go up. Good PM rating drives good party rating.
In this case Rudd just has the sort of rating to be expected for a roughly even 2PP. But if his net rating starts to go up, that probably means Labor’s rating will rise too. There are exceptions, like Howard rating well when his party polled awfully, but Howard had been there for a very long time and was respected by people who no longer liked his party.
Opposition Leader ratings have a much weaker relationship with 2PP. All else being equal a popular LO will have a good 2PP and an unpopular one a bad one, but all else usually isn’t equal and in Abbott’s time the patterns have been all over the place.
Rocket Rocket@91
The UK had quite a lot of 20th century examples – Baldwin and MacDonald swapping back and forth, Churchill voted out after the war then back in in ’51, and Harold Wilson got two goes as well. Quite surprising given their long gaps between elections.
And I suppose John Howard is sort of an example as well. Lost election as opp.leader, got knifed by Peacock and then kept out by Peacock forces even after Peacock had retired. But he doggedly stuck at it and got to be opp.leader and PM.
I was reading about Andrew Fisher earlier this year – I mean to read one of the recent biographies because I have never quite understood why he quit. I had thought it was health reasons and that he had died soon after, but he lived another 13 years.
Kevin Bonham
Your explanation highlights one of the reasons why the media has sought to protect Abbott from negative publicity [eg by promoting Margie and the daughters to counteract the growing public perception of Abbott’s misogyny] whilst simultaneously conducting smear campaigns against Gillard and Rudd [eg the nightclub thingy, Grech – the Telegraph and others have already started negative stuff against Rudd -“… Kevin Rudd is still the chaotic and dysfunctional leader …”].
Destroy the reputation of the leader and you impact on the non-preferred party’s votes.
[can’t believe people will ignore all Labors failings for the last 6 years just to vote this douche blast]
You better start believing it buddy, because on the poll trend the ALPs chance of victory just went from 1% to about 40% in 5 days.
And thats before we hit peak Rudd. 🙂
So given Rudd had a generally very high net approval rating during his first term, is it likely to improve from now?
[EXCLUSIVE: BRISBANE will once again be the seat of national power after PM Kevin Rudd decided to run the country from his back deck in Brisbane.]
Nice image. Theyll be lapping that up in Bristanbul, and Quinceland more generally.
[#Newspoll Preferred PM: Rudd 49 (+16 compared to Gillard) Abbott 35 (-10) #auspol]
Hello, weve got a live one punters. The increase in that first number suggests weakly affiliated LNP voters on sale by the bagful.
I also liked the poll that found 74% of ALP voters were happy with the return to Rudd, but cant find the link now, dammit. Anyone got it?
[At least it is unlikely the Libs will gain a senate majority.]
This very real possibility left the building last Tuesday. It wont be back.
Excellent fallback – but let’s aim higher.
just have to tip it onto page three for the nightowls and early risers – tomorrow night I am catching up on sleep.