Two new poll findings to start the day with:
• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.
• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.
guytaur
maybe slipper should be speaker on thursday
‘Rubbish – he and his government’s popularity was in free-fall towards the end of his PM-ship’
That’s a good one. Delusion piled upon delusion. You understand what free-fall means?
Well now we may have reached to bottom, but maybe not.
[Carey Moore
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 3:15 pm | PERMALINK
You know you have a leader who is really really reviled when something as innocuous as a photo of her knitting causes outrage and indignation, or analysis of it being a “blunder”.
While it’s not fair, it is reality and food for thought for those who think her unpopularity is just a blip or the product of voter apathy.]
Yeah. Just like you said, “it’s the perception” that counts.
Care to elucidate who promotes the perception?
Or the reality?
Geoff
I see you too think the MSM should get away with no examination of policies. Just keep making up more crap about non existent leadership challenges.
Ruh-oh. Kev is flying to China on Thursday. Will his first press conference as PM be held in Fuzhou? Ruddstoration… fading…
Speaking of leaders under fire . I reckon Hamid Karzai will be thinking about Dr. Najibullah right about now.
[Afghanistan presidential palace attacked in Kabul
Bilal Sarwary witnessed the attack in Kabul: ”Suddenly there was fire all around us”
Militants have attacked the presidential palace and government buildings in the Afghan capital, Kabul.
More than half a dozen explosions were heard as they clashed with security personnel at the palace’s eastern gate, the defence ministry and a CIA station.]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23042005
Geoff #500 that is indeed the sober truth.
“@Roaldan1000: Please retweet if you have NEVER been polled by Nielsen.”
“@Roaldan1000: Please retweet if you have NEVER been polled by Newspoll.”
Results will be interesting
PM Rudd couldn’t even greet some kid who went around the world in a robot boat without said kid dressing him down on live TV
absolutetwaddle
[Will his first press conference as PM be held in Fuzhou?]
Or is it the first leg of a flight to Equador via Russia and Cuba 😆
“@sortius: .@Roaldan1000 wow, lot of retweets for both Nielsen/Newspoll tweets. A lot of us obviously don’t have landlines!”
guytaur
It’s surprising how a sample of only 1300 people in a country of millions of voters can give a good result, but the maths of polling does work.
Twitter users on the other hand, are probably not a representative sample of the population…
guytaur
This landline-only polling is a bit of a fallacy, as someone else had discussed on Twitter. I have never been polled by anyone at all, and I have a landline. Proves nothing IMO.
“”SHADOW Treasurer Joe Hockey has issued a gag order on Coalition MPs and candidates talking to the Parliamentary Budget Office over fears that new laws will expose the Coalition to greater scrutiny.””
After the last attempt to Con us! no wonder!.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgjGWYZSVUA
lizzie
Its a poll about polls
The hyperventilating about the PM being photographed knitting that I have heard and read today has mostly been by career woman. Get the feeling that JG was somehow letting the side down in their eyes and should keep her knitting a secret.
What a stupid world we live in.
will newsltd bring margie out with her knitting ? and will she says Tony loves doing knitting as well?
poroti
[Or is it the first leg of a flight to Equador via Russia and Cuba]
Cute!
Will Pyne and peta credlin come out and say they took some knitting to Abbott in his office and he put them in the cupboard for safe keeping ?
Statistical analysis models are pretty robust and used for a whole range of issues which have nothing to do with politics. I think people will end up very disappointed if they rely on the current polling trends being widely inaccurate. There are just too many of them telling a similar story for that to be the case.
To put it bluntly if Labor don’t get their act together really quickly they are going to lose big-time. Even if they do get their act together quickly then they will likely lose. The polling trend hasn’t really been better than 52/48 for well over two years and that basically tells the story.
Adria
“”Unfortunately they are sick to death of the sound of her voice, what she did to the PM they elected, and sundry mistakes along the way that in other circumstances they would be prepared to forgive.””
Are you a woman in charge hater, or does the wife wear the pants?.
What a beautiful memorial service to Hazel Hawke. Superb.
A woman who took everything on the chin, had an abortion so that Bob could go to Oxford (while Abbott gave up the child he thought was his to go to Oxford – single men only need apply), raised his children while he philandered through life (get a grip Haze, a man’s gotta stick his dick into what a man has to, to do what a man’s gotta do), got over his infidelities, wrote a memoir expecting him to finally settle his gonads down, only to be usurped by a younger woman.
And Abbott confesses to ex-Fr Kevin Lee that he struggles daily with being faithful to his wife. He he. Abbott struggles to be faithful to a woman who has had to bring up his three daughters alone while hubby plays with bikes, togs, and fire hoses, while pretending to be gainfully employed.
Abbott’s employment has meant destroying others jobs. He he. Abbott’s employment has meant destroying medical advances. He he.
Abbott can ‘he he’ his way right out of my life.
The memorial concert for Hazel Hawke was just beautiful.
A wonderful tribute to a wonderful woman.
I just saw the photo of PM Gillard knitting a toy kangaroo for the royal baby on the front page of a tabloid at the supermarket.
What on earth was she thinking? I thought it was a spoof, but it is for real.
Is that what is called jumping the shark?
So men can play dress-ups in diving gear, football jerseys, bikerider’s lycra, they can wear little wigs to cover baldness, wear cowboy boots to Parliament, confess to listening to classical music or be a cricket tragic. But a woman knits and the media are hysterical.
Of course the real problem is that JG doesn’t keep her fruit bowl full of fruit.
davidwh
the media agenda is all what the polls are on
which are inaccurate because the media is polling on lies and propaganda
Oh, and I see that Joe (don’t you call me fat) Hockey took some knitting into the HOR. Let’s all die laughing.
Pity I’m not on Twitter!
I could retweet both! 71 yo & only ever polled for the notorious NP-Q push-poll, the results of which created Joh for Canberra campaign – about 1987, I think. Still, Howard claims it did for him in 87 (& for Joh the same year); so, all up, a very positive outcome 👿
Only main pollster, couple of years back, was Newspoll; which wanted a much younger male voter. Bluddy misogynist NewsLtd ;-).
the media will not allow polling companies to be independent
Sarah –
[But then again, not so sure.]
I was just pondering what Tones could manage as a self made gift. (The ‘swan’ one is most likely to hard for him).
guytaur@508
Fixed it for you.
Lizzie I don’t think it needs to make sense but just another reason to find fault with the PM. Same thing happened to Howard in 2007 when it didn’t matter what he did people paid out on him. Not saying it’s a direct comparison because some of the criticism leveled at the PM has been bloody silly. However that’s what happens when people have made up their minds and aren’t going to change.
Knitting is a time consuming occupation. She is saying to the Australian public that she doesn’t have anything better to do with her time than follow a pattern for a kangaroo toy.
What’s worse, she is genuflecting to the british royal family. I expected better of her.
If Bob Hawke or Gough Whitlam had indulged in a similar time consuming activity – spending many hours out in the back shed building a replica model toy vintage car for the royal baby – I would have had a similar reaction.
And I have a similar reaction to Tony Abbott’s bike riding for days – he should not have that sort of spare time if he was doing his job properly.
MB not all the polling is media driven. Much of it is reputation driven, some is driven by political organisations themselves however it is all telling a similar story. You are not being honest with yourself MB.
daivdwh
People have not made up their mind
the coalition have not shift form 2010 primary vote
the pro coalition media continues with push to keep abbott out of the spotlight
labor is likely to win
poroti
[Afghanistan presidential palace attacked in Kabul]
Kazai been saying for a week it should be the Afghan Govt negotiating with the Tabeban rather than the Yanks.
It looks like they took his word for it and turned up.
two bobs worth@523
I had the pleasure of meeting Hazel a couple of times and thereafter always thought she was a much better person than Bob.
[don
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 3:38 pm | PERMALINK
I just saw the photo of PM Gillard knitting a toy kangaroo for the royal baby on the front page of a tabloid at the supermarket.
What on earth was she thinking? I thought it was a spoof, but it is for real.
Is that what is called jumping the shark?]
A bit late to give the PM shellacking you think she deserves. Get in line for such an unforgivable faux pas.
Join the queue. And repeat after me:
Naughty, stupid, idiotic, dickface, dopey Prime Minister.
Oh, doesn’t that make you feel good. Last in line, but hey better late than never to give the Prime Minister a good punch in the solar plexus.
And what unforgivable sin did she commit? Being photographed knitting, for dog’s sake.
A gift, to the royal couple, how pathetic.
Knitting needles have always held a much higher value in our society.
Like getting rid of unwanted pregnancies. Women like to use these utensils to stick up their vagines, to perforate their cervixes, to instigate the death of a child within their womb.
Yeah. That’s what women like knitting needles for.
Women never knitted for the good of society, to send socks and jumpers and scarves to men on the front, no, they always used those weapons to get rid of unwanted children.
And, as a woman who has had a medical abortion, I’m glad Gillard knits lovely things for babies, rather than legislate for me, and women and girls like me, to have unsafe, maternal death, abortions.
davidwh
you are not facing the facts the opinion polling is on what the media is pushing, not on reality
There is no leadership challenge, it happens everytime when the media can not find anything positive about the coalition
MB I honestly don’t know how to respond to your post #535 without being somewhat rude so I think I will just refer you back to all the polling undertaken since August 2010.
davidwh @ 532
Yes, everything JG does is always wrong. I know that.
davidwh
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 3:56 pm | PERMALINK
MB not all the polling is media driven. Much of it is reputation driven, some is driven by political organisations themselves however it is all telling a similar story.
———
thats my point
the media is telling the opinion polling companies to follow the pro coalition media agenda
you look at morgan poll later last year
it was the only opinion polling which was not inline with the newsltd and pro coalition media opinion poling
newsltd publicly mocked and pressured morgan polling
and all of a sudden morgan poll has been inline with the pro coalition media agenda
davidwh
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 4:00 pm | PERMALINK
MB I honestly don’t know how to respond to your post #535 without being somewhat rude so I think I will just refer you back to all the polling undertaken since August 2010.
——–
Explain how could morgan poll change all of a sudden after newsltd publicly tried to dicredit if for being out of line
China mightily peed off by US attacks on it & HK over the Snowder affair: China rounds on US over Edward Snowden: State-run People’s Daily says whistleblower has exposed US hypocrisy after Washington blamed Beijing for his escape.
“Not only did the US authorities not give us an explanation and apology, it instead expressed dissatisfaction at the Hong Kong special administrative region for handling things in accordance with law,” wrote Wang Xinjun, a researcher at the Academy of Military Science in the People’s Daily commentary.
“In a sense, the United States has gone from a ‘model of human rights’ to ‘an eavesdropper on personal privacy’, the ‘manipulator’ of the centralised power over the international internet, and the mad ‘invader’ of other countries’ networks,” the People’s Daily said.
The White House said allowing Snowden to leave was “a deliberate choice by the government to release a fugitive despite a valid arrest warrant, and that decision unquestionably has a negative impact on the US-China relationship”.
The People’s Daily, which reflects the thinking of the government, said China could not accept “this kind of dissatisfaction and opposition”.
“The world will remember Edward Snowden,” the newspaper said. “It was his fearlessness that tore off Washington’s sanctimonious mask”.]
Not to mention, of course, China owns US$Trillions of debt, incurred by starting 2 more wars the US has, as is its custom since 1945, failed to win.
The pro coalition media attacked morgan poll , for showing labor in front
MB the polling is the polling regardless of what factors are influencing the polls. Just because it may not be fair doesn’t make it wrong. So even assuming it has been driven by a three year media frenzy to get the PM just because she is a red-headed woman that’s the reality. The damage has been done. The chances of reversing the position are very slim.
Mind you I don’t agree it is all media driven. Labor and the PM have done plenty of self-harm in the past two years.
[This landline-only polling is a bit of a fallacy, as someone else had discussed on Twitter. I have never been polled by anyone at all, and I have a landline. Proves nothing IMO.]
Well I have a landline and have been polled by Newspoll/nielson/robopoll and a couple of others. Of course it helped to be in very marginal seat at the time (McEwen) which had a majority of 11 votes at the time!
The landline/mobile issues is a bit of a non issue, all the talk is about declining number of new connections not a decline in the absolute number of connections e.g. the stock of households.
CTar1
Looks like the Taliban do not take kindly to people not RSVP-ing to invitations for tea and nibblies at their Doha office.
So daviidwh
Im sorry but you are falling like majority of the polling experts have no prove how accurate these polls are
[Explain how could morgan poll change all of a sudden after newsltd publicly tried to dicredit if for being out of line]
Can I please leave that one for William to answer if he has a mind to 😉