Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

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  1. [I had the pleasure of meeting Hazel a couple of times and thereafter always thought she was a much better person than Bob.]

    Just like you had a couple of meetings with Bob Hawke, and thought he was the bees knees.

    Just like you had a couple of meetings with Kevin Rudd, and thought he was the bees knees.

    Just like you had a couple of meetings with Julia Gillard, and thought, Nah, she’s not a patch on Hawke/Rudd.

    If only Gillard had stayed in the background, knitting.

    What’s your opinion really worth? Not much, actually.

  2. davidwh

    Anyway if the election goes the way in favour of the gillard government

    the opinion polling companies ,media and the polling analyst will have alot of explaining to do

  3. I got polled by Morgans last federal election. Have never been polled by any of the others although I tend not to answer the landline unless I know who the caller is.

  4. @Don

    [Knitting is a time consuming occupation. She is saying to the Australian public that she doesn’t have anything better to do with her time than follow a pattern for a kangaroo toy.

    What’s worse, she is genuflecting to the british royal family. I expected better of her.

    If Bob Hawke or Gough Whitlam had indulged in a similar time consuming activity – spending many hours out in the back shed building a replica model toy vintage car for the royal baby – I would have had a similar reaction.

    And I have a similar reaction to Tony Abbott’s bike riding for days – he should not have that sort of spare time if he was doing his job properly.]

    WTF? So every activity non-work related is a waste of time? Or are you saying pollies are supposed to be 24/7 on the job and have no other interests/outlets at all.

  5. Just saw the Julia Gillard knitting photos. I didn’t have time to check my privilege or reflect on whether I was being sexist or misogynist or otherwise evil, I just did the natural thing and laughed. I laughed and laughed and laughed until the dog got scared and started barking at me.

    Gillard is a national joke and has been for some time. I am going to enjoy her final humiliation on September 14. I suspect Kevin Rudd probably will too.

  6. OPT

    [the US has, as is its custom since 1945, failed to win.]

    My OH points out to me when the subject comes up that in the US’s first conflict after WWII in Korea they ‘failed to dominate’ – shades of the British Empire in the Boer War she says.

    Both China and Russia seem quite confident they can ‘thumb their noses’ at the US re’ Snowden.

  7. MB

    [the media is telling the opinion polling companies to follow the pro coalition media agenda

    you look at morgan poll later last year

    it was the only opinion polling which was not inline with the newsltd and pro coalition media opinion poling

    newsltd publicly mocked and pressured morgan polling]

    Very 👿 thought just crossed my mind. Perhaps Ed Snowdon has US surveillance documents tracking Murdoch’s Oz Empire’s manipulative polling shenanagins. We could send him Geoffrey Robinson to assist Wikileaks’ legal team! ABC could film it. Sell it world-wide.

    And the political sideshows continue!

  8. Don

    [Knitting is a time consuming occupation. She is saying to the Australian public that she doesn’t have anything better to do with her time than follow a pattern for a kangaroo toy.]

    That was the most bizarre comment I’d read here today until I read this

    [What’s worse, she is genuflecting to the british royal family.]

    What a strange outlook you have on life. I guess you are way too busy to speak with your partner, play with the kids or read a book for pleasure? I think that it’s a lovely gesture of the PM to knit a toy for the soon to be born royal and I am about as pro republic anti royal as you can get. What is so wrong to display a little civility and kindness?

  9. “..,wrote Wang Xinjun, a researcher at the Academy of Military Science in the People’s Daily commentary.

    “In a sense, the United States has gone from a ‘model of human rights’ to ‘an eavesdropper on personal privacy’, the ‘manipulator’ of the centralised power over the international internet, and the mad ‘invader’ of other countries’ networks,” ”

    The irony is strong with this guy. Yes PRC, tell us more about your respect for privacy, human rights and data security.

  10. Laughing at people who knit is such bullshit. Tony goes off to Afghanistan and gets his rocks off firing heavy ordinance, and nobody cares. The world definitely needs more knitters.

  11. [Psephos
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 3:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Did any Liberals respond to my earlier question about why it was admirable loyalty for the Liberals to stick with Howard in 2007, but stupidity for Labor to stick with Gillard now? If not, perhaps ModLib can do so now.]

    Sorry for the delay…..

    I don’t think it was admirable that the Liberals stuck with Howard. I had been hoping for a Costello takeover for years before the 2007 election. The Liberal Party absolutely should have given Howard the tap on the shoulder and moved him along in 2006. I suspect Costello would have had an outside chance in the 2007 election had he had enough time to assume the mantle of incumbency and time to differentiate himself from Howard.

    Do you seriously think it is wise for the ALP to stick with Gillard?

  12. Tom Hawkins@561

    Don

    Knitting is a time consuming occupation. She is saying to the Australian public that she doesn’t have anything better to do with her time than follow a pattern for a kangaroo toy.


    That was the most bizarre comment I’d read here today until I read this

    What’s worse, she is genuflecting to the british royal family.


    What a strange outlook you have on life. I guess you are way too busy to speak with your partner, play with the kids or read a book for pleasure? I think that it’s a lovely gesture of the PM to knit a toy for the soon to be born royal and I am about as pro republic anti royal as you can get. What is so wrong to display a little civility and kindness?

    I think the PM knitting a toy kangaroo for the royal baby is bizarre.

    If you don’t think so, that is your privilege, but I’ll bet a lot of people think as I do.

    And then to have it as part of her publicity, as though it will make people like her more, the PM’s advisers need their heads read.

    And the PM should have realised what a dork it made her look.

  13. I have only been polled once and it was because I am in the state seat of Bentleigh which ended up deciding the Vic election by a few hundred votes.

    Look at the sample sizes, chances are you won’t be polled unless you’re in a marginal seat.

  14. This recent Twitter exchange says it all…

    Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno
    New Prediction: @KRuddMP will only capitulate to the will of some of his caucus colleagues if he has the numbers. Now doubtful.”
    Details

    The Right Wing One @RightWingOne
    @PaulBongiorno “What made you so confident previously?”
    ViewConversation

    Paul Bongiorno
    @PaulBongiorno
    @RightWingOne “The MP what told me seemed kosher! Plus other bits of flotsam and jetson.”

    12:44pm · 25 Jun 13 · web

  15. @Tom

    [What a strange outlook you have on life. I guess you are way too busy to speak with your partner, play with the kids or read a book for pleasure? I think that it’s a lovely gesture of the PM to knit a toy for the soon to be born royal and I am about as pro republic anti royal as you can get. What is so wrong to display a little civility and kindness?]

    Cant agree more, the bitterness is strong with this one (Don i mean) but I have come across it before. My chosen out of work pursuits have their own stigma – Old cars, model railroads/planes and have seen that attitude on a few occasions. Was usually attached to the type of person who found drinking a slab and driving cars very fast with lots of smoke a good thing.

  16. [Paul Bongiorno
    @PaulBongiorno
    @RightWingOne “The MP what told me seemed kosher! Plus other bits of flotsam and jetson.”]

    Presumably this means he’d been briefed by George and his boy Elroy.

  17. You guys realise that <0.01% of the electorate is polled in the average 1000 sample poll dont you?

    The idea that you could ask around and see if anyone has been polled as some sort of scientific exercise to determine whether or not polls are real is farcical.

  18. [don
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 3:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Knitting is a time consuming occupation. She is saying to the Australian public that she doesn’t have anything better to do with her time than follow a pattern for a kangaroo toy.

    What’s worse, she is genuflecting to the british royal family. I expected better of her.

    If Bob Hawke or Gough Whitlam had indulged in a similar time consuming activity – spending many hours out in the back shed building a replica model toy vintage car for the royal baby – I would have had a similar reaction.

    And I have a similar reaction to Tony Abbott’s bike riding for days – he should not have that sort of spare time if he was doing his job properly.]

    How hysterically funny.

    [Knitting is a time consuming occupation]

    Have you ever knitted anything in your life?

    What’s your problem? Stop whinging.

    Assuage your conscience, Vote 1 LNP, don

  19. I don’t think there is anything wrong in the PM knitting roos but it did look a bit artificial making such a big splash about it. I honestly don’t think that picture is going to change what seems to be very fixed attitudes about the PM. The article just seems to be poorly timed and targeted.

    It certainly won’t change my views on the PM or my likely voting intentions.

  20. 568

    [And the PM should have realised what a dork it made her look.]

    Well there you go, doing something creative = dorky. The PM is a nerd. We have stooped to primary school levels.

  21. [Presumably this means he’d been briefed by George and his boy Elroy.]

    That’s very sexist. What about Jane and Judy?

  22. [ but I’ll bet a lot of people think as I do.]

    Don, There are all sorts of drop kicks out there

    [the PM should have realised what a dork it made her look.]

    You should think about what a goose your comments have said about you.

    Here’s a test, take your comments to your partner or work place and share them with your colleagues. See what they think. You might be surprised if they look at you sideways from there on.

  23. [Assuage your conscience, Vote 1 LNP, don]

    Wont happen, Abboot rides a bike so – he should not have that sort of spare time if he was doing his job properly so wont be voting for him.

    Maybe vote Green Don?

  24. I guess we shall see what the voting public thinks of her stunt later on.

    I hope that the knitted kangaroo figures in a poll sometime soon.

  25. Two “must see” articles providing thoughtful insight into the Labor Government on the ABC website:

    [Secrets and fears of a paranoid government – Chris Berg of IPA

    Gillard represents old Labor, therein lies the problem – the hon. Peter Reith]

    The ABC (i.e. us taxpayers) actually pays these people for their opinions?

  26. I love railway layouts and have both a G scale and N scale layout. Certainly more fun than knitting teddy bears 🙂

  27. [I hope that the knitted kangaroo figures in a poll sometime soon.]

    You mean the MSM will be pushing it as a leadership contender?

  28. I see Knitting-gate still rages on here on PB!

    Thank god we live in a country where the most confronting issue of the forthcoming election is whether the PM should – or should not – knit a kangaroo!

    I will sleep easy tonight knowing our country is so obviously safe and secure that people have nothing else to worry about.

  29. don

    [I guess we shall see what the voting public thinks of her stunt later on.

    I hope that the knitted kangaroo figures in a poll sometime soon.]

    Why wait – shock your friends and family by sharing your thoughts with them.

  30. [ The ABC (i.e. us taxpayers) actually pays these people for their opinions? ]

    Yes we do. Sickening, isn’t it?

    The only thing I’m looking forward to if Abbott wins the election is the sell-off of the ABC.

  31. Apparently this election isn’t about policies, Post-GFC, Jobs, it’s about what the PM does during the daily bases.

    O.M.F. GOD.

  32. Just been polled (Nielsen? Newspoll?Local barber?):

    First question: Should the Prime Minister be a knitter?

  33. [Knitting is a time consuming occupation. She is saying to the Australian public that she doesn’t have anything better to do with her time than follow a pattern for a kangaroo toy.]

    Unhingement lives.

    Truly a remarkable take on that article.

    It’s hard to believe some knitting needles, a ball of fluff and the PM could excite so much gnashing of teeth unless the teeth gnashers were afraid of her.

  34. “”the opinion polling companies ,media and the polling analyst will have alot of explaining to do””

    Did not that happen in the US elections?.

  35. ‘Are you a woman in charge hater, or does the wife wear the pants?.’

    You really are an idiot, aren’t you. Just describing reality, sorry if you lack the ability to recognise it.

  36. Maybe the PM could knit some smugglers for the LOTO. Something for everyone to get their knickers in a twist about!

  37. I will not be voting in favour of the Constitutional change to Local Govt funding

    This is part of the long term plan to do away with state governments

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