Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. [Mr Rudd is now also coming under increasing pressure to declare his hand today, with members within his own ranks saying that, unless he challenges, they will call on him to resign from parliament.

    “He is a dead man walking if he doesn’t do this. This can’t go on any longer,” a key supporter said last night.]

    And that is what it is about.

    We have seen 366 days of deliberate destablisation from rudd which has taken the focus of labors achievements in this parliament.

    When Keating challenged the first and lost he went to the back bench, when he challenged a second time it was accepted that the loser would resign from parliament to prevent the any ongoing speculation and destablisation that would occur.

    rudd has had three challenges, the first was unanimous and he was given foreign affairs, the second he lost 71 -30 and the second he went to the back bench, the third he ran from.

    The fourth, run rabbit run rabbit run run run? The little bullying prick knows what it means. Challenge and fail he would have to do the decent thing and resign.

    And rudd resigning from parliament would be the best thing for labor.

    It kills once and for all the destablisation campaign he was waged for the past 3 years and a bit.

    And that is what is hitting labors vote.

    Bye bye rudd or bye bye Gillard, one of them has to go, that is what we see and perceive, that the two of them are still there reinforces the perception of a government in crisis.

    The little self absorbed narcissistic prick knows and has traded on this especially in this finally balanced parliament.

    Either way one of them has to go before the election.

    I would prefer rudd went as he has put his interests above the labor party and Australia.

    Either way if rudd or Gillard went then the labor vote would improve as this constant speculation would cease.

    But unfortunately for labor and Australia I do not see rudd resigning as it is all about him.

  2. […when he (Keating) challenged a second time it was accepted that the loser would resign from parliament to prevent the any ongoing speculation and destablisation that would occur.]
    Reference?
    [And rudd resigning from parliament would be the best thing for labor.]
    Bullshit. It would actually make Labor’s vote go down even further.
    [The little self absorbed narcissistic prick knows and has traded on this especially in this finally balanced parliament.]
    That’s a former Labor Prime Minister of Australia you are talking about. Clearly you don’t actually care much about the Labor Party.
    [I would prefer rudd went as he has put his interests above the labor party and Australia.]
    Julia Gillard remaining Prime Minister is not in the interests of the Labor Party.
    [But unfortunately for labor and Australia I do not see rudd resigning as it is all about him.]
    But unfortunately for labor and Australia I do not see Gillard resigning as it is all about her.

  3. “Piss off to Facebook”? Calm down buddy.

    Did you mean “We will decide who comments on these pages, and the circumstances under which they comment!!!”

  4. [“Piss off to Facebook”? Calm down buddy.

    Did you mean “We will decide who comments on these pages, and the circumstances under which they comment!!!”]
    Improve the quality if your posts or piss off.

    You have two options. Choose one of them.

  5. Spray, back-patting is reserved for elite use only. Not just any random person is allowed to set up their own mutual admiration society!

  6. Sorry ShowsOn, didn’t realise you were the arbiter of quality on this blog. Or that you had the power to expel people for not meeting your lofty standards.

    How would you suggest that I improve the quality if (sic) my posts?

  7. [I see that you still have not watched the abc interview where Carlton endorsed Hadley as a great bloke shows.]
    Do you have brain damage? Carlton wrote an official complaint the the ABC regarding how his interview was edited for that program.

    You have serious mental problems if you don’t understand that Carlton completely rejected how he was treated by the producers of Australian Story.

  8. [Shows, you’re not William’s alter ego are you?]

    No he is a throwback, pre 2007, full of hope for rudd, now bitter and sour. Definitely not WB.

  9. [you don’t understand that Carlton completely rejected how he was treated by the producers of Australian Story.]

    Clearly your comment shows (joke ha ha) that you have not watched the abc program where he endorsed hadley.

  10. Depends what you call a beginner mate. I’ve read enough of your rubbish to know that I’m a long way ahead of you in every area that matters.

    Like manners, for starters.

  11. [Still learning the rules.]

    No rules Spray except for what WB has somewhere that means don’t abuse other commentators and be nice.

    Doesn’t mean you can’t point out others misconceptions in a nice polite fashion.

  12. i see the petulant selfishness of J Gillard continues as she will continue to defy all logic and refuse to stand aside. her and her henchmens ultimate victory is to defeat Rudd whatever the consequences and the ultimate punishment at the ballot box for the ALP. complete destruction of the party means nothing to her. it is all about personal hatred of rudd. she really is a nasty piece of work

  13. [JULIA Gillard will deny her MPs a secret vote in a special caucus meeting expected to be called as early as today to spill the Labor leadership – an unprecedented move to protect her position.
    ]

    Is this for real?

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