Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

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  1. That photo shoot just makes her look kinda sad right now. Like they had to do something as corny as that to do some image management?

    Look there is granny knitting over there in the corner. Or is it the 1950s modern housewife.

  7. You know what’s better than a Peter Hartcher op-ed?

    [VIRGO. Your surroundings will go through undesirable changes that you will have to come to terms with and accept due to a battle of wills between yourself and others. You may win an argument. Don’t get in the way of people who are working out their own problems. You may have the intention of helping them but could create the opposite effect.]

    Scarily accurate, right?

  9. IF Rudd were to take over, how he takes over is important.

    Really has to be obvious to all, the public, that they are all handing over to him because things are SNAFU.

    A challenge where he wins a split decision is just a get out of jail free card for the factional safe seater wankertocracy who can then hand the blame for election loss to him.

  10. [Can’t see this mentioned on here yet, but I hear Rudd has cancelled his flight to China …]

    Was about to mention it, but the only source I had was chatter on Twitter, so I couldn’t confirm it.

  11. That’s right, it has to be in the context of a complete capitulation of the hollow wing to make it work. The hollow wing is holding out though, and daring Rudd to just win so their power is only slightly diminished. They all know that won’t work. Here comes the cliff….

  13. Carey Moore,

    Isn’t the twitterverse wonderful 😯

    There will come a time when serious journalism 😯 will check and double-check tweets.

  14. [IF Rudd were to take over, how he takes over is important.

    Really has to be obvious to all, the public, that they are all handing over to him because things are SNAFU.

    A challenge where he wins a split decision is just a get out of jail free card for the factional safe seater wankertocracy who can then hand the blame for election loss to him.]

    —

    [That’s right, it has to be in the context of a complete capitulation of the hollow wing to make it work. The hollow wing is holding out though, and daring Rudd to just win so their power is only slightly diminished. They all know that won’t work. Here comes the cliff….]

    Perhaps you guys could have come up with this plan a little earlier then? Then there might have been more to it than “Ask Gillard to resign. Repeat.”

  18. I, for one, will be glad when this week is over and parliament adjourns, so people can stop acting like performances in question time and passages of legislation are game changers.

  19. Mate … if Labor admits what the public already knows, that it is SNAFU, the public will at least know that Labor has admitted and facing its problems… and bringing back Rudd to re install normality. They will say..well thank freaking god, at last.

  20. Gillard refusing to allow a secret ballot!
    [JULIA Gillard will deny her MPs a secret vote in a special caucus meeting expected to be called as early as today to spill the Labor leadership – an unprecedented move to protect her position.

    In a warning to Kevin Rudd’s supporters that they would have to blast her out of office, the PM’s office yesterday suggested any vote to remove her would have to be by a show of hands.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/prime-minister-julia-gillard-expected-to-deny-mps-secret-ballot-if-leadership-spill-called/story-fnii5s40-1226669750634

    She’s drunk on power!

  21. You’re dreaming. It would be the best way to confirm the air of instability that the opposition has tried to create throughout this parliament. Game, set and match to Abbott.
    And it would mean that three of the last four ALP election wins had resulted in a PM being sacked. Decades of election material for the Libs.

  22. [You’re dreaming. It would be the best way to confirm the air of instability that the opposition has tried to create throughout this parliament.]
    Absolute bullshit. Most voters just want Gillard gone and don’t care how that is achieved. If the ALP party room isn’t willing to do it, voters will do it themselves at the election.

  23. ShowsOn, ironically, the reverse effect could happen and more people side against her as they don’t have a private ballot to hind behind and don’t want to be seen as backing the loser (that is definitely not Gillard’s intention, of course)

  24. “Power is given only to him who dares to stoop and take it … one must have the courage to dare”

    – Dostoyevsky quote, seen on wall in Hobart. I’d be interested to know whether in the Russian original, the term translated as “stoop” carries connotations of willingness to sacrifice one’s own moral standing in the process.

  25. [ShowsOn, ironically, the reverse effect could happen and more people side against her as they don’t have a private ballot to hind behind and don’t want to be seen as backing the loser (that is definitely not Gillard’s intention, of course)]
    Maybe, but clearly Gillard is doing this so that people opposed to her can have their pre-selections challenged.

    This is completely outrageous and demonstrates that she is in a weak position.

    Is she really the democratically elected leader of the parliamentary Labor Party if she has to use intimidation to hold on to that position?

    Why is she so afraid of democracy within her own party?

  26. ShowsOn, there’s no doubting Gillard’s lack of popularity (not surprising given what she’s been up against). My point is that a switch to Rudd won’t improve the electoral situation, it will almost certainly make it worse. And would do major damage to the party’s long-term credibility.

  27. centaur009

    “zoid the straw that broke the camels back…it really is the most rididculous thing I’ve seen”

    Your post is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen. Really? A photo of a middle-aged women knitting is THE MOST ridiculous thing you have seen? To the extent the photo will dictate the way you vote?

    If you’re serious congrats on being The King Of All Idiots.

  29. Shows

    Maybe, but clearly Gillard is doing this so that people opposed to her can have their pre-selections challenged.

    Isn’t this just your own assumption?

  30. And speaking of bullshit, I’m calling bullshit on that story about Gillard demanding a show of hands. No named sources, as usual, and just doesn’t ring true.

  31. ShowsOn

    It’s the Short-Con SDA cabal trying to keep their restless caucus minions under control, by a direct threat to their personal future. Still, that can work for either side.

  32. ShowsOn re: show of hands

    Has it been conclusively established that is in fact what will happen? Especially when a leadership vote hasn’t even been called (and not even LIKELY to be called)?

    It sounds like a bit of filler to me, predictably pounced upon by Rudd ‘strategists’ as something to bitch about to the press.

  34. [As hostilities between the warring camps worsened on Tuesday, Rudd loyalists complained that Ms Gillard’s communications director, John McTernan, had implicitly ”threatened” potentially wavering MPs by reminding them that any spill motion would be done via a ”show of hands” rather than by secret ballot, the method for the final leadership selection.
    Rudd supporters were incensed that a non-member of caucus was ”telling MPs what happens inside the caucus room”.]
    http://m.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-backers-want-ballot-20130625-2ovbe.html

  35. I wish people would support their pet theories with things that have actually happened, rather than with things that might happen :P.

  36. [ShowsOn, there’s no doubting Gillard’s lack of popularity (not surprising given what she’s been up against). My point is that a switch to Rudd won’t improve the electoral situation, it will almost certainly make it worse. And would do major damage to the party’s long-term credibility.]
    You are completely wrong. If you were part of a campaign you would know that the sentiment is against Gillard far more than it is against Labor. When you actually discuss policy with most voters they generally like what the Government is doing and has done. What they don’t like is Julia Gillard.

  37. [ShowsOn re: show of hands

    Has it been conclusively established that is in fact what will happen? Especially when a leadership vote hasn’t even been called (and not even LIKELY to be called)?]
    Well it is what Gillard’s communications director is telling Labor MPs.

    That smells of intimidation to me.

  39. I’d imagine any vote would be held the same way the others Rudd has lost or been been to afraid to participate in have. In any case if he wants overwhelming support from caucus a show if hands is one if the best ways to demonstrate he has achieved this.

  40. You know what that sounds a little like?

    “If Gillard is removed, the independents will stop supporting the government in the house!”

    Which, in turn, sounds like “If Labor are elected [in the 2007 election] there are a dozen Labor candidates who we will challenge as inevitable, forcing by-elections!”

    It seems a trope of desperation to start invoking rules and technicalities to try and intimidate support to move back to their side…

  41. [No, it’s what Rudd supporters are saying that Gillard’s communications director is telling Labor MPs.
    Big difference.]
    John McTernan seems to stuff up everything he touches, so it would be perfectly in character for him to make a threat of that sort on Gillard’s behalf.

  43. Maybe so, I’m not defending McTernan.

    But the fact remains that there’s no evidence that such a threat was made. Sounds like bullshit to me, but your opinion may differ.

  44. If it doesn’t happen, my guess is “JG backed down” will be added to the hypothesis. That way we get to double the negativity from something that didn’t happen!

    See what I did there? 🙂

  45. [I’d imagine any vote would be held the same way the others Rudd has lost or been been to afraid to participate in have. In any case if he wants overwhelming support from caucus a show if hands is one if the best ways to demonstrate he has achieved this.]

    I think the show of hands they’re talking about is the vote on whether to have a spill at all, and this hasn’t come up recently.

    Gillard voluntarily vacated the leadership for both previous challenges, as I assume Rudd did in 2010.

  46. [If it doesn’t happen, my guess is “JG backed down” will be added to the hypothesis. That way we get to double the negativity from something that didn’t happen!]
    It wouldn’t surprise me if Gillard has to back down from this idiotic position as her position in caucus is very weak.

    After all, she had to be bailed out last week too.

  48. This is the “idiotic position” that we have no idea she’s even adopted? And now she’s backing down from it due to her weakness in caucus?

    Gee, she just can’t do anything right can she?

  50. [DisplayName, I wish this blog had a “like” button.]
    Piss off to facebook if this blog is too difficult for you to use and understand.

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