Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. โ€œ@naomiwoodley: The HoReps has passed the Sex Discrimination Amendment. Includes measures to stop aged care providers discriminating against #lgbti clients.โ€

    With or without Coalition support?

  2. [Abbott the volunteer teacher in remote Aboriginal communities]

    No grog allowed in those communities, it is his dry week, rehab if you like.

  3. Hazel Hawke’s memorial

    And the little prick couldn’t stop being an aboslute little prick

    [Then it was over except for managing Gillard’s exit. Rudd was at the far end of the row near the door shaking hand after hand as the official party went past. No one escaped his hand. Hawke shook. O’Farrell shook.

    But when Gillard drew level, a gulf seemed to open between them. The contenders weren’t in the same space. They didn’t shake. She moved on.]

    A smarmy little boy, just like Abbott was, at the first reception after Gillard had gained the PMship.

    Two losers. Two little spoilt bratty bully boys.

    Can’t cope, will never cope, with a female leader.

    Suck it up, princesses.

    And that tie colour: Bully boy blue.

  4. [Oakeshott on Lateline just called BS on Carbon Tax lie.]
    Yes Oakeshott does explain the carbon price better than most government MPs.

  5. [Maybe theyโ€™ll never accept it.]

    I am guessing there will be precious little doubt about the will of the people by 9pm Sep 14th.

    Denial past that time will enter the realm of psycopathology

  6. Oaky has revealed his intentions about running in the election to the local newspapers….not sure whether they are online or not, but otherwise we will have to wait for Meguire to tell us what the factual reality is tomorrow! ๐Ÿ™‚

  7. 9pm mod lib? more like 6.23pm…I am disgusted at this once great party of reformers.I don’t even think they are worthy of my $2.60 odd for the vote..I may give it to an ind for having a go

  8. โ€œ@paulyt_aus: The #senate is so far behind that a speech on #homelessness that @SenatorLudlam was due to make at 8:30pm will now be around 12:15amโ€

  9. [Denial past that time will enter the realm of psycopathology]

    This is how it will pan out on September 14:

    During the day: “Just went to vote, saw lots of people going to the ALP HTV booth. They looked happy. The Lib booth was quiet and the volunteers looked gloomy! Good sign for Labor!”

    Early in the evening: “It’s still early days! Anything could happen!”

    “WA hasn’t stopped voting yet. And they’ve barely started counting in SA or NT – that’s where Gillard’s secret strength will be!”

    Mid-evening: “STOP CALLING THE SEATS FOR THE LIBS, ANTONY! APPARENTLY ‘50% COUNTED’ MEANS ‘ALL COUNTED’ TO YOU! THEY CAN SWING BACK TO LABOR. OF COURSE, THEIR ABC DON’T WANT A DIFFERENT ELECTION RESULT TO WHAT RUPERT WANTS!”

    End of evening: “Yeah, let’s prematurely anoint Abbott as PM! When there are still a load of postal votes to be counted! Young people like to travel and they vote Labor, so there will be a swing to Labor in the postals!”

    A week or so later: “Yeah Abbott managed to trick the voters but he only won 101 seats, not the 110 some on here were predicting. Looks like Tone’s campaign failed! He would’ve lost it if Rudd didn’t white-ant and the MSM…etc.”

  10. Carey

    You declare Oakshott wrong on his statements on Lateline?

    Particularly the one on journalists pretending to be politicians?

  11. [You declare Oakshott wrong on his statements on Lateline?]

    I haven’t heard/read them, so I can’t comment either way.

    [Particularly the one on journalists pretending to be politicians?]

    “We would be winning this game if the umpires weren’t playing for the other team!”

  12. [I wonder when the denial will actually end? Will it be on the night of Sep 14? ]
    Yes: when my glass is half full I fill it up. What do you do?

  13. Now Sarah if you call someone a little “pr**ck” you could not object to someone calling another a little c*nt*

    Get it you are using sexist lanuage.

    Both are repulsive but I am trying to make a point. If you use sexist language you cannot object to others using it.

  14. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/mayhem-in-marginals-3-mayhem-everywhere.html

    Mayhem In The Marginals 3: Mayhem Everywhere

    This is my take on the latest JWS monster. I’ve taken them to task for their lame batching methods when dealing with close outcomes and small brackets, which exaggerate some of their latest findings slightly.

    However the whole thing of whether or not Labor is facing more losses than uniform swing, or uniform-by-state swing, imply, remains an open question in my book. It’s something I’d like to see some conventional pollsters getting into as well as the new ones.

    Also I’ve updated my Tas federal Labor ReachTEL piece with some of the Queensland stuff I was discussing here with jackol (I think) the other day. I’ve looked at how the Queensland ReachTEL polls over the last six months (last poll for each seat polled) compared to the final outcomes. That’s here: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/federal-labor-getting-smashed-all-over.html (at the bottom). Some were very predictive; a few were “way out”.

    I don’t think ReachTEL are completely out of the woods as concerns a possible small pro-Coalition house effect. But I still think explaining away the nine-point gap in Lyons is a bridge too far and that if the national 2PP does not improve and Abbott avoids massive Tasmania-specific gaffes then Lyons is more likely than not to go.

  15. Jolyon Wagg,

    There was a hologram of SBW on the platform when first we were transported to the Fraudband opening. Tone said: “I take it that’s a hologram?” I think I have his words aright.

  16. [Snowden leaks may embarrass Canberra]
    I understand inanimate objects are about to experience feelings. Isn’t technology wonderful!

  17. You know, it’s not optimism that bothers me about Labor hacks. Quite the opposite. I think it’s important and, if Labor are to retain any seats, its supporters need to retain some level of optimism.

    No, it’s the smugness and gloating – the acting like not only can Labor win but that Labor have already won and that it’s so obvious, anyone who disagrees is just stupid and needs their head checked.

    Note: ‘Labor hack’ does not mean all Labor supporters, just those who blindly parrot party lines, are never critical of any element of the party and live in complete denial of political reality. I realise most Labor supporters do not fit under that category but the ones who do seem to be very vocal here!

  18. I recommend to “Liberal hacks” that they watch Rob Oakeshott’s interview on Late Line.

    Some of the nuances may escape them.

  19. OK I know this is very naughty but after the knitting posters perhaps JG can start calling us all possums.

    Dame Edna Gillard ๐Ÿ™‚

  20. I think it really was a deliberate set up to make her look silly.

    Nobody, would use that orange patterned chair as a back drop for colourful knitting and especially if the person is in a patterned dress or shirt.

    Really NO photographer would ever be so cruel – would they

  21. Wait for next months picture of JG preparing a box: of anzac biscuits, lavendar soaps, and eucalyptus oil for the boys at who are away fighting the war

  22. daretoread

    Who would have thought that the s457 rort they have been searching for in vain to show Rooty Hill would be found in Gillard’s own office?

  23. Look all the politicians can make their favourite toys for the royal babe

    Or perhaps bake Kate a cake or too.

    Rather than caucus meetings they can have therapeutic quilting sessions

  24. More dame Edna than Hyacinth. But certainly you could have a cosy with Jeanette Howard and Julia – probably Jeanaette (Hyacinth could be baking)

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