Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. [ Swan looks like he is in the middle of a nervous breakdown every time he stands up…

    That’s good – even sounds like a PJKism]

    You couldn’t say that today – it isn’t PC enough. It’s insensitive to the mentally ill. If you said it you could probably save your career with a quick apology, but in a decade or so you’ll probably be sent to jail for hate crimes for that sort of thing.

  2. [Mod Lib
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:27 pm | PERMALINK
    No doubt you laughed your head off when Keating called someone a “skanky hoe”, didn’t you confessions?]

    That was disgraceful.

    Of all the descriptions Janet Albrechsten deserved, that was beneath contempt. For that alone, Latham lost.

    Bugger the handshake.

    I don’t think you realised the depth of women’s sorority the, and you probably don’t now.

  3. confessions:

    “skanky hoe” is equivalent to “not waving, drowning” is it?

    Interesting world you live in, do you need a visa?

  4. JV

    Ordinarily true…but the media may not have allowed that luxury…given that they were echoing the lib filth if not writing it for them

  5. DTT

    every hottentot and every eskimo

    when the air becomes uraneous we will all go simultaneous….those were the days Tom Lehrer sixties….you an old person

  6. Battle Turkeys
    [You couldn’t say that today – it isn’t PC enough. It’s insensitive to the mentally ill. If you said it you could probably save your career with a quick apology, but in a decade or so you’ll probably be sent to jail for hate crimes for that sort of thing.]

    What sentence? 12 months? And maybe 3 months for saying someone looks like they have a cold – insensitive to snifflers.

  7. [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib:

    No doubt you laughed your head off when Alan Jones suggested the PM be put in a chaff bag and thrown out to sea.]

    No, I thought that was disgraceful.

    You see? That is the difference between you and me. I am happy to call it as I see it. You, on the other hand, are horrified at the sexism of people not referring to Gillard as Prime Minister Gillard, and yet when asked whether you condone the phrase “skanky hoe” you steadfastly and repeatedly* refuse to bite.

    *I have asked you this numerous times before and you evade each time.

  8. Mod Lib:

    No doubt you laughed your head off when Niki Savva declared that Prime Ministerial leadership hinged upon what our PM was wearing on any given day.

  9. Its OK confessions, I think it is working…..I don’t reckon anyone has noticed that you are unwilling to criticise Keating for calling a female journo a “skanky hoe”.

    Nice work!

  10. [mimhoff
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:38 pm | PERMALINK
    The “You didn’t condemn X” game is incredibly boring.]

    Quite entertaining for me! 🙂

    Sorry if others are not as amused….

  11. [No doubt you laughed your head off when an OO journalist declared the PM’s earlobes to be distracting?]

    Howard had his eyebrows, Tony Abbott has his smuggler-covered sex organ. We shouldn’t get too precious about these things.

    [No doubt you laughed your head off when Alan Jones suggested the PM be put in a chaff bag and thrown out to sea.]

    People do realise he didn’t meant this literally don’t they?

  12. Loving Realtime WWII tweets:

    [WW2 Tweets from 1941 ‏@RealTimeWWII 1h
    Germans in Lithuania find dead Jews hung from trees; 1 local explains: “Hitler hates the Jews anyway- so we killed them & took their stuff.”]

  13. [People do realise he didn’t meant this literally don’t they?]

    ML has a point. Would you call it sexist given it was levelled at a woman in a way that it would never be levelled at a man?

  14. Its hilarious watching the ALP drones working themselves up into a frenzy when their desperate overlord start pointing fingers and get personal in the comfort of parliament where there can be no repercussion. Its like watching starving seagulls home in on a fallen chip. Yet of course the same drones wind up their faux outrage machine at any criticism of their overlords especially Gillard. Australia day riot -> outrage, outrage, outrage -> blows up in their smug faces when the perpetrator was revealed as Gillard. Confected outrage at a menu downloaded from Twitter which any 5 year old would have been smart enough not to touch with a ten foot pole -> boom. Blows up in their faces. Of course asking questions about a dodgy lawyer helping defraud union workers is completely improper.

    As I said before, one would think the ALP would learn from past experience including from “The Blight” but I am glad they havn’t. It will make their stunned mullet expressions in September even more amusing when they realise they will have to get real jobs. Swanny could work at McDonalds, but just don’t let him near the till.

  15. Battle Turkeys

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    No doubt you laughed your head off when an OO journalist declared the PM’s earlobes to be distracting?

    Howard had his eyebrows, Tony Abbott has his smuggler-covered sex organ. We shouldn’t get too precious about these things.

    No doubt you laughed your head off when Alan Jones suggested the PM be put in a chaff bag and thrown out to sea.

    People do realise he didn’t meant this literally don’t they?
    ===========================================================
    , Tony Abbott has his smuggler-covered sex organ. We shouldn’t get too precious about these things.

    Surely you mean “We shouldn’t get too precious about the LITTLE things

  16. Right so “chaff bag” is sexist but confessions is reluctant to say “skanky hoe” is sexist.

    Quite a fascinating place PB….fascinating!

  17. [Jeez, why do men always demand women take notice of them!!!]

    Right, so asking for an answer to a question I first asked a year ago and which still hasn’t been answered is sexist, but “skanky hoe”….meh, not so much, eh?

  18. Sean Tisme

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Who cares about the Gillard knitting photo… I wanna know why a Labor MP has a black eye…
    ============================================

    Abbott was aiming at the wall….hahahaha

  19. davidwh

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    We sure are starting to bounce around the bottom at present and still 3 months to go.
    ——————————————————-

    hit bottom when people spent over 1000 days talking about Rudd and his leadership ambitions….

  20. ML:

    You are unhinging.

    A year ago? I have no idea what you’re referring to, but if you’re going to keep bleating that I pay attention to you whenever you ask a question, you can sod off. I need your kind of neediness like a hole in the head right now.

  21. Mod Lib

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    Abbott was a boxer wasn’t he? I imagine he would connect if he intended to connect.
    ——————————————————-

    he hasn’t been able to deliver a knockout blow in the last 3 years

  22. confessions:

    I know it is a very difficult question: is “skanky hoe” sexist?

    Why don’t you take another year to mull it over and get back to us when you are ready?

  23. [If Tony Abbott is “drunk and unreliable” then how can Bludgers explain the incredible discipline he has shown for over three years now in successfully pretending not to be a dangerous lunatic?]

    he runs, jogs, cycles, triathlons,constantly travelling, moving to keep his mind off the demon drink.

    his 36 hour no sleep campaign in 2010 was a great example of that, got to keep moving, keep moving.

    problem is as pm he will have to sit still at some stage.

  24. Shanky or Skanky Ho

    Apparently it had something to do with plagiarism, but in the US black community it meant something else altogether. And most young Aussies knew it meant prostitue/slut.

    On the other hand, this was Latham’s excuse (blame women)

    [http://www.crikey.com.au/2005/09/19/skanky-ho-the-true-story/]

    Whatever the reason, it was sexist, unfair, unnecessary, and useless to boot.

  25. [he hasn’t been able to deliver a knockout blow in the last 3 years]

    The trouble is you guys are like the Monty Python knight with its arms and legs cut off, but you just haven’t worked it out yet!

    The time of reckoning is approaching fast though, enjoy the denial while you can 🙂

  26. “@naomiwoodley: The HoReps has passed the Sex Discrimination Amendment. Includes measures to stop aged care providers discriminating against #lgbti clients.”

  27. [The time of reckoning is approaching fast though, enjoy the denial while you can]

    I wonder when the denial will actually end? Will it be on the night of Sep 14? Or will they hold out for the next few days, convincing themselves it could change? Maybe they’ll never accept it.

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