Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. [Voted the World’s Best Treasurer who presides over a AAA economy.]

    That would be the economy Ken Henry basically said Rudd saved from recession.

  2. muttleymcgee
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:16 pm | PERMALINK
    geoffrey @ 1073

    QED.

    ps was that to me or the party. assume the former but just checking

  3. [So, if Abbott was present for the vote, how would it have changed anything?]

    Demonstrated commitment to his duties?

    Some kind of care factor beyond the spoils of office?

  4. “true true but that’s much of a comparison”

    There you go again.

    Enough scintillating repartee for one night.

    Goodnight all …

  5. Carey Moore

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Imagine if Abbott was Jesus and he didn’t turn up to the sermon on the mount because he was dead drunk!!1!
    —————————————————-

    he could have got a pass from Daddy to come back in 3 days

  6. Shivers, i agree with Carlton

    Mike Carlton ‏@MikeCarlton01 2m
    It’s not that JG was photographed knitting. It’s her media minders not having any control that’s nuts. The incompetence is breathtaking.

  7. Tony Abbott being pissed and having a nap will matter about as much as Kevin Rudd eating his ear wax. The people had already decided to vote John Howard out by then. The same as people have already decided to vote Julia Gillard out now. This blog is full of people copying Denis Shanahan’s behaviour in 2007. Clinging to any tiny revelation as if it will change the direction of the stampede.

    I admit my own little delusion in hoping that Kevin Rudd would come charging back in to save Labor from Oblivion. That obviously doesn’t look like happening now. Onwards towards defeat then. I shall drink to the good old days where Politicians understood that opposition (in 99% of cases) is for the impotent.

  8. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 29s
    The Left here really needs to learn from Judith Sloan & Grace Collagen and just say whatever shit they know will infuriate their opponents.]

  9. If Tony Abbott is “drunk and unreliable” then how can Bludgers explain the incredible discipline he has shown for over three years now in successfully pretending not to be a dangerous lunatic?

    Sure he has minders dedicated to the task of keeping him on track and keeping the crazy under control, but still, his success has been remarkable.

    It is strangely reassuring. It’s quite possible he can keep pretending through an entire Prime Ministership, and once he’s done that he might be so used to it that he may actually become a normal human being in truth. It would be one of the great PR and man-management achievements of all time.

  10. Actually, another incident I can compare this with is three years ago (in the days leading to Rudd’s removal) when PB was confident that attacking Abbott for taking a second mortgage on his house was going to destroy him. I was against that then and I am against this now. (FYI, attacking Abbott on his mortgage just made Rudd et al look completely desperate and scared of Abbott.)

  11. Waiting at Jersey FF lounge with the internet my goodness when the usual suspects fly in to protect their man TA and his drinking problem we know there is a problem? Next stop Gatwick

  12. Carey Moore

    The whole period of the Gillard government has been been dedicated to giving Abbott air – always talking about him rather than ignoring him and getting on with bold leadership. … Ah, of course, therein lay the problem.

  13. Battle Turkeys

    [how can Bludgers explain the incredible discipline he has shown for over three years ]
    Oh wow what discipline. Brave Sir Robin running away at every presser once his spoon fed lines run out. Not appearing on any forum that may require him to face questions that he has not got answer cards for. His so called “discipline” looks more like someone who has lost his capacity for independent thought.

  14. carey moore

    which is I beleive where all this crap started. Rudd freaked out requiring his replacement….he was totally spooked by Abbott and totally misread how to deal with him….Gillard ultimately hasnt done much better. You know what they say. Don’t fight with an idiot they bring you down to their level and they’re better at it. Totally apt

  15. I also remember on election eve, the Labor hacks giggling because he had a shandy when he was at a pub, acting like it would make him look weak and he would pay for it at the polls. It did nothing to hurt his image, btw. But it does raise the question of how one can simultaneously be both a weakling who won’t even have a full beer and a problem drinker who will risk the country by going on a reckless binge? There’s some real cognitive dissonance right there!

  16. [The whole period of the Gillard government has been been dedicated to giving Abbott air – always talking about him rather than ignoring him and getting on with bold leadership. … Ah, of course, therein lay the problem.]

    Nailed it!

  17. as i said, and agree again

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Shivers, i agree with Carlton

    Mike Carlton ‏@MikeCarlton01 2m
    It’s not that JG was photographed knitting. It’s her media minders not having any control that’s nuts. The incompetence is breathtaking.

  18. Russell Crowe

    I think it’s just a lack of gallantry that has crept into not just politics but the way politics is reported and I think it gives licence to a type of hater that will only further reduce the quality of our lives, you know? The better politicians we have in place the better our society is going to be, the better all of our lives are, you know?

    I think it was that lack of gallantry that led me to, you know, to tweet that. I think it doesn’t matter who the Prime Minister is, that office needs to be respected.

  19. I can’t imagine PJK descending to the level Swan did today. He didn’t need to use cheap humourless recycled smears. He could come out with an original, appropriate and damaging descriptive phrase and make the House laugh at the same time.

  20. JV

    Looking in the wrong end of the telescope I think after all the shit the Tories threw last year to weep about somebody naming a thug for being drunk on duty…

  21. [[Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:34 pm | PERMALINK
    Imagine if a father did not turn up for his baby’s birth because he was dead drunk?]

    Nothing would happen. He’d probably be given a cigar.

    What if the mother turned up for a baby’s birth and she was dead drunk?

    Baby would be removed by Social Services.

    [Yes, if only Churchill had stayed off the bottle, then that whole unnecessary conflict with the peace loving Nazis could’ve been avoided (BTW, the war started before Churchill was PM)]

    I think you’ll find Churchill was First Lord of the Admiralty. But anyway, who gives a stuff. Easy to send kids to war, to get killed. Especially so if you’re fond of the bottle.

    The sole reason for bringing up alcohol in a parliament that’s dedicated to making decisions in the best interests of the country is that there should be no remorse for such a decision.

    Get it.

    [Actually, another incident I can compare this with is three years ago (in the days leading to Rudd’s removal) when PB was confident that attacking Abbott for taking a second mortgage on his house was going to destroy him.]

    You won’t find one instance of me having a go at Abbott for drinking or otherwise, or for taking out a mortgage. So what. That’s his decision.

    I find it detestable that LNP women are subjected to the sane or as much BS regarding their looks, dress, or allegiances as Labor women.

    As I do regarding LNP men.

    But I do find it obscene that the MSM has been duty-bound to make a mockery of the PMship over the past three years, purely on the grounds the incumbent is a woman.

    And ain’t that the case.

  22. [jaundiced view
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:09 pm | PERMALINK
    I can’t imagine PJK descending to the level Swan did today. He didn’t need to use cheap humourless recycled smears.]

    You are 2 for 2 with your last couple of posts JV!

    The trouble with Gillard and Swan is that their hatred of Abbott and the opposition comes through every time they open their mouths.

    The fantastic parliamentary performers like (early) Hawke, Keating and Costello was the ability to mock your opponent. Ridicule them rather than spew insults at them.

    On the other hand, Keating also descended into petty hates (making fun of Hewson’s speech impediment for example) but because he was so entertaining he got away with it.

    Swan looks like he is in the middle of a nervous breakdown every time he stands up…

  23. This reminds me of being in the company of footy fans who, as their team bombs, start focusing their anger on the umpires and, if watching it on TV, get angry at the commentators for “prematurely” calling things…

  24. Kinkajou

    The approach of an incumbent government is to keep above the fray; to talk only of its agenda for change; to persuade on the more controversial but correct policies; and to keep the mere opposition shivering in the cold, reduced to howling for scraps.

    This government has not done this. It has been in an unseemly mud wrestle with the opposition right through.

  25. I really feel truly sorry for those, however many, who get so upset that the PM has a hobby and was photographed indulging in it. In a *gasp* photography studio! Get a fucking life. A hobby would do you idiots a LOT of good.

    I hate using the ‘unhingement’ term as it’s thrown around here way too much but that’s pretty much exactly what those photos have caused for fuck knows what reason. The reasons I’ve seen posted here for getting upset over it are ridiculous at worst and trivial at best.

    NEWSFLASH: the PM’s staff probably weren’t involved or terribly interested in the spread BECAUSE it showed her knitting. It’s the very definition of uncontroversial, at least outside if the rapidly growing cesspit that passes for political opinion and commentary in this fucked up country. If she was photographed partaking in a bit of female circumcision in her spare time, I’d get it though.

    Just grow upppppppppppp. Please?

  26. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:21 pm | PERMALINK
    Does anyone have a GP Super Clinic in their area and is it open?]

    Yep

  27. Carey Moore

    Good analogy. Tribalism takes many forms. Religion, politics and football are three big ones. In all of them, the first casualty of tribal loyalty is rational thought.

    William could do another doctorate on that with all the raw material he has from PB when he’s finished his current opus.

  28. [The trouble with Gillard and Swan is that their hatred of Abbott and the opposition comes through every time they open their mouths.]

    Love it. This from a Liberal after the expressed hatred and expressed misogyny towards Julia Gillard. Pyne and Hockey cat-called after the PM down the PH corridors! Hockey tweeted that our Prime Minister didn’t deserve respect.

    You don’t get much greater hatred of her than that.

    And also loving this newfound Liberal lovefest for Keating! 😮 😆

  29. Mod Lib
    [Swan looks like he is in the middle of a nervous breakdown every time he stands up…]

    That’s good – even sounds like a PJKism

  30. [AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:21 pm | PERMALINK
    They travelled for 3 days to put their case but #TonyAbbott arrived late, sat down & fell asleep @independentaus http://is.gd/cUJGfp%5D

    Sounds like the Story of Jesus.

    Was Abbott a shepherd, the star of jerusalem, or a donkey?

  31. [This reminds me of being in the company of footy fans who, as their team bombs, start focusing their anger on the umpires and, if watching it on TV, get angry at the commentators for “prematurely” calling things…]

    This would mean something if it were’t for the fact that commenters here for years have been requesting greater focus on the coalition.

    Your observation is about 3 years too late.

  32. Peter Reith is on the drum (rerun, missed it first go) and I am reminded of PJK saying Reith was like the punching toy- you hit it and it fell over and bounced right back smiling at you again…..clearly it troubled him that Reith was never perturbed by his barbs!

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