Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. David Boon infamously consumed 43 cans of beer on a flight to London.

    Those were the blokesville days. Perhaps TA is in a time warp?

  2. [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:28 pm | PERMALINK
    David Boon infamously consumed 43 cans of beer on a flight to London.

    Those were the blokesville days. Perhaps TA is in a time warp?]

    Knitting?

  3. Another poster took a snapshot of his ballot in 2010 to prove which way he voted.

    I’m waiting for emulation from one or two here.

  4. Carey Moore & Davidwh

    I hope it doesn’t become a tit-for-tat thing. It is dangerous territory, because it would be ridiculous for the wowsers to start scrutinising pollie and staffer drinking habits. It is part of the peripheral culture, but should remain private.

    Pretty for Swan to be using it when there are so many big failures in Abbott and his party.

  5. [Carey Moore
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:20 pm | PERMALINK
    That “Drunk Abbott” stuff isn’t going to make a lick of difference to anybody’s opinion of him.]

    Of course, that’s what we’ve just been discussing. How a drunk can get away with it, to whit Churchill.

    That’s okay. Blokes make very very very good decisions while they’re pissed. Like going to war. Fantabulous.

    Who actually gives a stuff whether Abbott slept his way through a Bill? No-one.

    Who cares if Tony Abbott needs a drink to make a decision.

    No one.

    Who cares if Julia Gillard needs to knit to make a decision.

    Every One.

    It’s just not the same, is it?

    Knit one, purl one. Make something for someone or send one to war.

    Drink one, drink another. Blow up a factory or send two to war.

    Which one’s better for the economy?

    Who cares about the wounded or dead. Drinking wins every time.

    I know who I’ll vote for, for the economic good of the country. And it won’t be for knitting.

  6. alias

    ‘Being hung over for such a crucial vote is not a good look,…’

    You Liberals and your fascination for appearance and fluff like that.

    It was gross dereliction of duty of the sort that has got many a worker sacked in the past.

  7. I know a few times when I’ve gotten drunk in the evening and my killer hangover forced me to be absent from work the next day. Granted, I wasn’t a legislator but I was still relied on.

    Indiscretions like that are what make us human. TBH, I loathe the guy but don’t actually see that much wrong with what he did. Definitely it was the wrong thing to do but, on its own, it’s hardly something to exclude him from the highest office of the land. If he did it all the time it’d be different but once is nothing.

    Seriously, do not go down that avenue, it will just make Labor look even worse (rummel’s comparison with Rudd at the strip club is a perfectly apt way of putting it.)

  8. Sean Tisme

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

    And Abbott the charity rider, Abbott the father of happy, healthy and successful daughters, Abbott the volunteer teacher in remote Aboriginal communities, Abbott the volunteer fire-fighter…

    Don’t forget Abbott the NDIS introducer
    —————————————————-

    Abbott the claimer of travel and accommodation allowances paid for by the taxpayers when he does his charity work riding a bike, when volunteers in aboriginal communities while claiming allowances.

    His volunteer work is paid for by the taxpayers

  9. I see that the Libeals here would do anything rather than take a cold, hard look at what we are about to get as a Prime Minister. Seriously, they say, let’s not go there.

    Indeed.

  10. BT

    “My dog has apparently just unilaterally decided that since it is so cold outside he is now allowed to piss all over the laundry floor instead of going out.”

    Probably symbolic. Your Laundry Floor is a symbol for your political views in your dog’s eyes.

    😀

  11. Fess

    There is detailed account of Rod Marsh’s record which he took off Gary Gilmour or Doug Walters.

    15 cans for each leg of the trip and then carried off the plane.

    Makes one proud to be an Aussie male.

  12. [That’s okay. Blokes make very very very good decisions while they’re pissed. Like going to war. Fantabulous.]

    Yes, if only Churchill had stayed off the bottle, then that whole unnecessary conflict with the peace loving Nazis could’ve been avoided (BTW, the war started before Churchill was PM)

  13. alias

    ‘Please don’t address me as “you Liberal”, Boerwar. I’ve never voted Liberal in my life.’

    Fair enough. Henceforth if I am making a general statement about the ill-begotten nature of Liberal hacks on Bludger you are exempt.

  14. confessions

    They hooked onto it in 2009 – The Telegraph for one – see Steve777’s 1099. What does Swan’s un-parliamentary repetition add to that?

  15. [I know a few times when I’ve gotten drunk in the evening and my killer hangover forced me to be absent from work the next day. Granted, I wasn’t a legislator but I was still relied on.]

    Ever slept off a lunchtime drinking session that afternoon and missed a work meeting as a consequence? That’s the equivalence.

    Agree that there is much to focus on Abbott apart from his alleged alcohol problem, however.

  16. Carey Moore

    [I know a few times when I’ve gotten drunk in the evening and my killer hangover forced me to be absent from work the next day]
    Excuse fail. Abbott knew there was a vote coming up that addressed the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. If you knew that this afternoon you had to vote on a mega decision would you, or any responsible person, have gone out and got smashed at a “long liquid lunch” ? I

  17. BW

    “Fair enough. Henceforth if I am making a general statement about the ill-begotten nature of Liberal hacks on Bludger you are exempt.”

    Are you saying that alias does not have an ill-begotten nature?

    😀

  18. [Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:34 pm | PERMALINK
    Imagine if a father did not turn up for his baby’s birth because he was dead drunk?]

    i know a story of a guy in Queanbeyan who wet the babys head for two days straight and had to be pulled pissed into hospital to see the baby… the hospital was only three blocks away.

  19. All the grouper hacks keep demanding that policy be talked about rather than Gillard’s leadership, and yet trot along behind Swan for re-hashing in parliament old worn out scuttlebutt on Abbott for the media to report. Lift your game. Abbott is a policy joke – go for it.

  20. The only fail here is the extremely convoluted fake outrage by the Labor hacks on here, so desperate for any smear.

    It’s really 2007 in reverse.

    But hey, go for it, send out the government ministers in droves to complain about him missing a vote because of a hangover. See how that works for you all.

    Of course, when it does blow up in everyone’s face, I’m sure it will be emmessem’s fault for not reporting it properly or some other crap.

  21. “So, if Abbott was present for the vote, how would it have changed anything?”

    It wouldn’t have added to his reputation of being unreliable and a drunk.

  22. r

    I understand that there is humanity on the one hand and Queanbeyanites on the other hand. It is tacitly and generally accepted that the rules for the latter have to allow a bit more latitude for, shall we say, human peccadillos.

    As a case in point, how many drivers from the humanity side have actually stalled a fire truck in a flood?

  23. [Carey Moore
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:20 pm | PERMALINK
    That “Drunk Abbott” stuff isn’t going to make a lick of difference to anybody’s opinion of him.]

    I thought it was the little Tank from Tassie who held the record.

    Forgotten his name.

  24. “Wayne Swan is always Wayne Swan”

    Voted the World’s Best Treasurer who presides over a AAA economy.

    The last Coalition Treasurer to achieve both of these was ….. ?

    BTW. Has Hockey found his wallet yet?

  25. OOPS

    #1143 was actually addressed to:

    [shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:36 pm | PERMALINK
    Fess

    There is detailed account of Rod Marsh’s record which he took off Gary Gilmour or Doug Walters.

    15 cans for each leg of the trip and then carried off the plane.

    Makes one proud to be an Aussie male.]

  26. “As a case in point, how many drivers from the humanity side have actually stalled a fire truck in a flood?”

    Barnaby sank his LandCruiser. Does that count?

  27. I think it is relevant if the man who would be PM has a drinking problem.

    However, I don’t think it will change the way people vote.

    Please don’t mention Abbott’s ‘organ’ or budgie smugglers- ewwwwwwww….

  28. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:26 pm | PERMALINK
    PM Gillard sure looks a lot more competent at knitting than PM Howard ever was at cricket.— Argumentalist (@argumentalist

    true true but that’s much of a comparison

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