Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. [davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:57 pm | PERMALINK
    Gawd we have had Abbott the thug. Abbott the mysoginist. Finally Abbott the drunk.]

    Labor should try Abbott the Prime Minister 🙂

  2. puff

    i have just see telegraph front page. is that the photo you mention. it is a pr disgrace. now it is clear who the culprits for the current mess really are – her media advisors (and advisors generally). so one week she is anti sexist and a bit hard core, the next she knits. some here think the public are gullible fools, but they aren’t. knitting during a crisis. for any thinking person and for most the connotations are actually negative

  3. Geoffrey

    Typical. You are borderline illiterate and struggle to present a cogent thought. Your reference to “any thinking person” is pure satire.

    Vote for Gonski so your children don’t grow up the same as you are.

  4. Was Barnaby sober when he said lamb roasts would cost $100 post carbon pricing?

    Was Katter sober when he mused about rising sea levels leading to crocodiles ending up on roofs?

    Was Abbott sober when he said of our Prime Minister, that ‘when it comes from Julia, does no mean no?’

    Etc

    Etc

    Etc

  5. Silky38
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:03 pm | PERMALINK
    And yet PM he will be with a thumping majority and control of both houses.

    ————–

    what will you say when labor wins 51-49% in September 14th

    its unfair because abbott was leading the media propaganda fantasy spolls since 2010 ?

  6. Boerwar

    Being able to handle the piss may have helped save the war. A couple of months back this came out.

    [Wartime talks between Winston Churchill and Joseph Stalin were proving awkward until a drinking session lasting until 3am, newly released files show.

    In a Foreign Office account of the 1942 Moscow visit, an official recalls finding the men enjoying “food of all kinds… and innumerable bottles”.

    The mood was “merry as a marriage-bell” although Churchill was “complaining of a slight headache” by 1am.]

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22623251

  7. [Bligh made stuff up. Swan reported the fact that Abbott was drunk.]

    What was his BAC?

    Oh thats right, neither Swan nor you know because Swan was making shit up.

  8. davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:57 pm | PERMALINK
    Gawd we have had Abbott the thug. Abbott the mysoginist. Finally Abbott the drunk

    ——————-

    lucky mod lib and rummel are voting labor

  9. citizen

    yes i like oakshott’s values – it is a pity our system makes individual voices so rare, i am sure others could speak like here. so boring to hear same old faces (usual suspects) time and again.

  10. [Labor should try Abbott the Prime Minister :)]

    And Abbott the charity rider, Abbott the father of happy, healthy and successful daughters, Abbott the volunteer teacher in remote Aboriginal communities, Abbott the volunteer fire-fighter…

    But no, all the misandrists on here can do is make crude slurs based on masculine stereotypes and ridicule and objectify Tony Abbott for his choice of bathing wear and the apparent lack of size of his barely-concealed male sex organ.

    Disgusting behaviour.

  11. Joyce’s prangs are like Abbott falling asleep on the job… forgiven, blokey stuff.

    I imagine that if Gillard has fallen asleep in her office because she was as pissed as Abbott was, or wrote off a couple of vehicles that we would never hear the end of it.

  12. Abbott went to bed and woke up Sober.

    Wayne Swan went to bed and his $300 Billion dollar debt turned into a $301 Billion dollar debt 🙂

  13. muttleymcgee
    must have touched a nerve. insult is not substitute for argument. i think my turn of phrase outshines muttleymcgee’s anyday. disgrave muttleymcgee, is that cogent enough? anyway, take out for professional support of your leader on any one of several other uneducated souls here.

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Geoffrey

    Typical. You are borderline illiterate and struggle to present a cogent thought. Your reference to “any thinking person” is pure satire.

    Vote for Gonski so your children don’t grow up the same as you ar

  14. Good to see all the Liberals twisting and turning to avoid the truth of their Lord and Master’s bad behaviour.

    Let’s hope that he doesn’t hit the turps if there is another financial crisis.

  15. Sean Tisme

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    The country is falling to bits and Gillards doing knitting in the Womans Weekly
    —————————————————-

    JGPM is not claiming travel and accommodation allowances while doing charity work, unlike LOTO

  16. muttleymcgee

    the labor party has specialised in inventive as much as abbot – except they use it against critics on their own side.

    anyway one has long said one’s piece on this site – ps gonski was prematurely announced, probably by same media advisers responsible for today’s visual debacle.

  17. As reported in the Daily Telegraph and the Sydney Morning Herald at the time, Abbott had seriously wined and dined on the night of the final GFC vote.

    He was so drunk, he couldn’t get off the floor, and slept through it all.

    Swan was quite right.

  18. BT

    O Tut! Tut!

    And in the face of such scurrilous misandry the awful Julia was knitting!!!

    O Shock! O Horror!

    O the Humanity!!

  19. [Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:03 pm | PERMALINK
    I wonder whether Abbott was sober when he said that Whyalla was gone?]

    Jober as a Sudge.

    And he hadn’t had a drink. Apparently. That’s the sum total of Abbott’s intellect. ZERO. He has no excuse.

    He can’t think for himself, oh, apart from celibacy. His discussions about sex with Fr Michael Lee are enlightening, if not patehtic.

    You ought to (over)hear my uncles speak of sex. Schoolboys. They’re not over it yet. Just like Abbott. It’s secretive stuff. Smell your fingers, if you dare. And then broadcast it to everyone else. Way to make women trust you.

    Talk about dumb asses. It’s about time you older brothers listened to your younger brothers and sisters.

  20. [And Abbott the charity rider, Abbott the father of happy, healthy and successful daughters, Abbott the volunteer teacher in remote Aboriginal communities, Abbott the volunteer fire-fighter…]

    Don’t forget Abbott the NDIS introducer

  21. They sat around Whitlam’s cabinet table drinking schooners; Bob Hawke drank a pint in 2.25 seconds. Remember the Terrigal conference? A lot of pollies of all persuasions drink copious amounts of ink. It cannot be a successful partisan weapon either way. I also don’t think it should be one.

  22. My dog has apparently just unilaterally decided that since it is so cold outside he is now allowed to piss all over the laundry floor instead of going out.

  23. There’s a kind Australian ranga sitting, knitting.
    She smiles for the Woman’s Weekly camera and turns to her mates, who are all gathered around, and sings:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8yEbAlQi-s

    :- )
    Let the wallabies vote, bloke
    Let the wallabies vote
    They’re me last livin’ hope, bloke
    So let the wallabies vote
    Altogether now!
    :- )
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    :- )
    Don’t say things on a whim, Tim
    Don’t say things on a whim
    Like small fingers up yer rim, Tim
    Don’t say things on a whim
    Let me hear ya!
    :- )
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    :- )
    Don’t come the heav’ with me, Kev
    Don’t come the heav’ with me
    You’ll get me needle up yer bum, chum
    Don’t come the heav’ with me
    Louder!
    :- )
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    :- )
    So happy to knit for Kate, mate
    So happy to knit for Kate
    Make up for not curtseyin’ the Queen, old bean
    So happy to knit for Kate
    Sing out loud!
    :- )
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    :- )
    Go choke on yer blue ties, guys
    Go choke on yer blue ties
    Handbag Hit Squad’s better by miles, guys
    Go choke on yer blue ties
    This time with feeling!
    :- )
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    :- )
    Too late to rally the troops, Rupes
    Too late to rally the troops
    Phone hackin’s got ya into the soup, Rupes
    Too late to rally the troops
    One last time!
    :- )
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    Knit me kangaroo toy, sport
    Knit me kangaroo toy
    :- )

  24. Battle Turkey ruminates…; “…and the apparent lack of size of his barely-concealed male sex organ.”

    Methinks the man doth dwell too much!

  25. jv

    [Bob Hawke drank a pint in 2.25 seconds.]
    A vote involving the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression was not happening during those 2.25 seconds.

  26. That “Drunk Abbott” stuff isn’t going to make a lick of difference to anybody’s opinion of him. Most will just shrug it off. Even if they do care, it won’t stay with them and certainly won’t change their vote. In fact, if anything, it could do the opposite and make him seem like a regular bloke who sometimes has a few too many from time to time.

    If Labor hammer him over it, it’ll just make them look desperate to smear him.

    This, of course, is in reality, not PB Universe.

    I see little gain in carrying on about it.

  27. Abbott has admitted to his drinking problems on the record.

    In an interview with the SMH he told how he advised Howard to take up jogging to get his mind off alcohol as it had worked for him.

    Howard was not a jogger so took up walking instead.

    It is why Abbott runs, jogs, cycles, swims so much, to stay away from the demon drink.

    The problem is if Abbott becomes PM he will have to sit still at some point to read briefing papers and make decisions.

    Then he will face his inner demon again as he did during the vote on the GFC and look how that turned out.

  28. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    [
    Maybe PMJG can knit Tony Abbott a veneer of humanity.]
    At the very least a merino wool budgie smuggler 🙂

  29. [Battle Turkeys
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:17 pm | PERMALINK
    My dog has apparently just unilaterally decided that since it is so cold outside he is now allowed to piss all over the laundry floor instead of going out.]

    Sounds like Tony Abbott’s your guest for the evening.

  30. [My dog has apparently just unilaterally decided that since it is so cold outside he is now allowed to piss all over the laundry floor instead of going out.]

    Blame Global Warming…

  31. [Carey Moore
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:20 pm | PERMALINK
    That “Drunk Abbott” stuff isn’t going to make a lick of difference to anybody’s opinion of him.]

    Its just going to be Abbotts little Kevin Striper Moment.

  32. Battle Turkeys
    [
    My dog has apparently just unilaterally decided that since it is so cold outside he is now allowed to piss all over the laundry floor instead of going out.
    ]
    The Trickle Down Theory in action.

  33. rummel

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:37 pm | PERMALINK
    r
    Bligh made stuff up. Swan reported the fact that Abbott was drunk.

    Drunk? to drunk to drive a car? to drunk to walk? had a few drinks?

    on what facts bar a desperate political shot is swan making a drunk claim….
    ——————————————————–
    The vote Mr Swan was referring to was initially reported in The Sunday Telegraph in March 2009.

    It involved the $42 billion fiscal stimulus package, brought forward by Kevin Rudd.

    Mr Abbott told Chief Opposition Whip Alex Somlyay that he missed five divisions on the night of Thursday, February 12 because he fell asleep in his office.

    His nap followed dinner in the Members’ Dining Room with Peter Costello, Kevin Andrews and Peter Dutton

    Mr Abbott said he and the group had consumed a couple of bottles of wine

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/wayne-swan-accuses-tony-abbott-of-being-drunk-and-asleep-on-vote/story-fnho52ip-1226669579162#ixzz2XE5QC1h2

  34. Being hung over for such a crucial vote is not a good look, no question, but trying to sell the “Abbott is a drunk” line just isn’t going to wash – even it were not reprehensible politics.

    Abbott is a fit, athletic chap who looks pretty good for his age, notwithstanding the fast-growing bald patch.

    In any case, the voters have made up their mind. It’s a bit like when Rudd opponents tried to make something of the New York strip joint. It just improved his public profile.

  35. Hmmm.

    Abbott drinks himself into a stupor, misses a crucial vote in the House as a result: ‘oh that’s just blokesville. Focus on that, it’ll cost you votes’.

    Gillard does a photoshoot for a women’s magazine knitting: OMFG THE SKY IS FALLING IN/SACK HER ADVISORS/LIFE AS WE KNOW IT IS AT RISK!!!!!

    And people have the temerity to question the PM’s recent speech about sexism.

  36. Tony Abbott asleep in parliament – here is the article from 2009: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/archive/national-old/abbott-snoozed-through-key-vote/story-e6freuzr-1111119064644

    Here is the first paragraph: “TONY Abbott missed the key economic vote of the new Parliament – the $42 billion fiscal stimulus package – because he fell asleep after a night of drinking witnessed by MPs from both sides of Parliament.”

    Of course, it is the Daily Telegraph, so they might have made it up.

  37. [Abbott has admitted to his drinking problems on the record.]

    Bob Hawke and John Curtin were both former drunks when they became PM.

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